The NFL playoffs continue on Sunday afternoon with a showdown between the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC wild-card round. This is just about as big as an opening playoff game can get, as these 2 historic franchises have represented their conference in 3 straight Super Bowls and in 5 of the last 8. As for this season, San Francisco (12-5) settled for a wild card after Seattle won the juggernaut NFC West; Philadelphia (11-6) eased to another NFC East crown.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the season, including 2 of my 4 efforts during Week 16 (+650 in Packers vs Bears and +600 in 49ers vs Colts). I also hit a +675 play for Texans vs Chargers in Week 17. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 4:30 pm ET kickoff on FOX. Also be sure to check out our full 49ers vs Eagles predictions.
Eagles -5.5 (-112)
Jalen Hurts Over 208.5 passing yards (-114)
Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown (-135)
Parlay odds: +550
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is some of the plan here, as Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for his fair share of yards would obviously work well with an Eagles win and cover. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the case with backing San Francisco running back Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown. But even if he does, there is no reason why the home team can’t take care of business. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Eagles -5.5 (-112)
The Eagles endured a meltdown at the end of the 2023 campaign, but they have otherwise been he beasts of the NFC over the past several years – representing the conference twice in the past 3 seasons and winning it 11 months ago. Head coach Nick Sirianni’s squad is showing few – if any – signs of slowing down. It may not be the favorite to win the NFC, but it is certainly in with a very realistic chance. At the very least, Philadelphia should be able to get the job done at home in round 1. They are playing solid right now and certainly head into the playoffs much healthier than the 49ers. San Francisco’s offense could be without left tackle Trent Williams and wide receiver Ricky Pearsall (both are questionable). Quarterback Brock Purdy got roughed up in last week’s 13-3 loss to Seattle, too. On defense, linebackers Dee Winters, Luke Gifford and Renardo Green are all questionable. That’s not what the Niners need to hear when edge rusher Nick Bosa and linebacker Fred Warner are already out. This just isn’t a great spot for the visitors.
Jalen Hurts Over 208.5 passing yards (-114)
Hurts has thrown for at least 230 yards in 3 of his last 6 outings. The occasions on which he was kept under the 200-yard mark toward the end of the regular season were mostly due to the Eagles holding sizable leads – thus able to keep the ball on the ground. Philadelphia may win by the necessary margin this week, but it probably won’t be a complete blowout against a respectable blowout. Hurts is going to throw the ball – as he often does in the playoffs. The former Alabama standout has exceeded this 208.5 quota in 5 of 9 postseason appearances dating back to 2021, including Super Bowl efforts of 221 yards and 301 yards. Hurts simply knows how to get it done on the big stage. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense is #25 league wide against the pass and has given up 29 passing TDs.
Christian McCaffrey to score a touchdown (-135)
I’m not too concerned — not at all, in fact — about throwing this leg into the parlay even when we need Philadelphia to win. After all, we can pretty much accept McCaffrey finding the endzone as a given. The Eagles can do the same. As long as they keep most everyone else on the 49ers’ offense under wraps, it will not be a big deal if McCaffrey has a good game. He scored 17 TDs (10 rushing, seven receiving) during the regular season, including at least 1 in 6 of the last 7 contests. Only the formidable Seahawks managed to keep the Stanford product from scoring in that 7-week stretch. McCaffrey now faces a mediocre Eagles run defense that allowed 124.4 yards per game on 4.3 yards per attempt to go along with 20 rushing touchdowns. A mere 5 NFL teams gave up more TDs on the ground in the regular season.
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