2022 ACC Conference Tournament preview, odds and best bet: North Carolina picks up steam

Photo of Matt Marquart

Matt Marquart

NCAAB· 2 months ago

Show Bio

I'm a College Basketball contributor here at Pickswise. I have been a longtime College Basketball fan and bettor, as I love to dive deep into every aspect of a particular matchup. In no other sport are there as many teams with different styles of play like College Basketball, so I'm fortunate enough to share my thoughts at Pickswise.

By now it’s likely that most are aware that this season was a down year for the ACC. There are very few teams that found themselves in the AP Top-25 throughout the season, and the conference experienced its worst year in terms of overall efficiency in the KenPom era (since 2002). As things stand now in the latest Bracket Matrix NCAA Tournament selections, there are currently just five teams projected to be in the field, and all but Duke are hanging on for dear life.

North Carolina is likely in with their win at Duke, but Wake Forest, Notre Dame, and Miami are all projected for a 10-seed or higher, meaning they’re not a lock to make the field. Given that we are likely to see five teams at most in the field, there’s at least a chance that a team such as Syracuse, Florida State, Virginia or Virginia Tech could steal a bid by winning the ACC Tournament. All are somewhat unlikely as you can see from their odds, but crazier things have happened. Let’s dive into the odds:

2022 ACC Tournament odds

Duke -130
Wake Forest +900
Notre Dame +900
North Carolina +950
Virginia Tech +1100
Miami +1200
Virginia +1700
Syracuse +5000
Florida State +5000
Louisville +9000
Clemson +9000
NC State +12000
Georgia Tech +13000
Pittsburgh +20000
Boston College +20000

Looking at the odds courtesy of FanDuel, Duke is a heavy favorite at -130. The Blue Devils won the regular season ACC Title for the first time since 2006 and have been the best team throughout the majority of the season. However, we’ve seen them lose to a few lesser teams, most notably Miami who they lost to at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

Next in line are Wake Forest and Notre Dame at +900. The most notable thing here is that Notre Dame is the four-seed, meaning they receive a double-bye and an automatic trip to the quarterfinals, while Wake Forest would need to get past either Pitt or Boston College before facing Miami in the quarterfinals. Wake Forest is unlikely to lose against Pitt or Boston College, but they would need to win 4 games in 4 days to capture the title.

North Carolina (+950), Virginia Tech (+1100) and Miami (+1200) make up the next three in line. Virginia Tech has the same situation as Wake Forest above, needing to win four games. The remaining teams are +1700 are lower.

ACC Tournament best bets

Unless you want to take Duke, you’re likely looking at someone in the group above in the +900 to +1200 range. Among those, I think North Carolina at +950 makes the most sense. Notre Dame potentially has a tricky quarterfinal matchup against Virginia Tech, a team that they lost to in the regular season. Despite not being in the mix for an at-large berth, Virginia Tech is actually the second-highest team in KenPom’s metrics, one spot ahead of North Carolina. The Hokies also finished strong, winning 9 of their last 11 games.

As mentioned above, Wake Forest would need to win 4 games in 4 days to win the title, including defeating Miami, who swept them in the regular season, and obviously Duke. Their path is too difficult, despite being my personal favorite of the non-Duke ACC teams. I also want to avoid Duke until the championship game, which rules out Miami.

North Carolina was an extremely erratic team this season, ranking 357th in Haslemetrics’ consistency metric. The Tar Heels lost 4 games by at least 20 points this season but have high upside as we just saw against Duke. Their potential path would be Virginia who they beat by 16 points, and then likely either Virginia Tech or Notre Dame. North Carolina swept Virginia Tech and lost by just five Notre Dame in a game in which Notre Dame shot 13/31 from three. The Tar Heels would then likely be a favorite or a pick’em in the title game if someone were upset Duke, or if not, they’d look to win their second straight against the Blue Devils.

I think we are getting fair odds on North Carolina as well, as +950 implies a 9.5 percent probability. BartTorvik’s ACC Odds Simulator gives North Carolina an 11.5 percent chance of winning based on his metrics, so +950 is a reasonable price.

Pickswise is the home of March Madness Predictions. Check out all of our March Madness Picks, including daily March Madness Parlays throughout the NCAA Tournament. 

Virginia Bonuses

See All
PointsBet

$500

Get 5x $100 Risk-Free Bets!

Sign up for a new PointsBet account

Make a bet of up to $100 and receive a refund if you lose

Get this offer once a day for the first 5 days you sign up

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

DraftKings

$200

Bet $5 on Any MLB Game, Get $200 if Your Team Wins!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any MLB team to win their next game

Win $200 in free bets + any cash winnings from your original wager

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If ANY NBA Team Makes a 3-Pointer!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NBA game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game makes a 3-pointer

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5 on any NBA team, Get $150 in Free Bets if they win!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any team to win an NBA playoff game

Win $150 in free bets if your team wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

BetMGM

$200

Win $200 If A Goal Is Scored In ANY NHL Game!

Sign up for a new account with BetMGM, and make a deposit of $10+.

Place a $10 moneyline bet on any upcoming NHL game.

Win $200 if either team in your selected game scores a goal

21+ and new players only. Full terms available at BetMGM Sportsbook.

DraftKings

$150

Bet $5, Win $150 on any UFC 274 fight!

Sign up for a new account with DraftKings Sportsbook and make your first deposit

Bet $5 on any fighter to win at UFC 274

Win $150 in free bets if your fighter wins

Offer valid for new players only. Must be 21 years or older to play. Reward paid in site credit. Full terms available at DraftKings Sportsbook.

PointsBet

$2,000

Get $2,000 in Risk-Free Bets!

Register for a new PointsBet account & deposit

Receive a free bet refund up to $500 if your first fixed odds bet loses

& a free bet refund up to $1,500 if your first two PointsBetting Wager loses

Must be 21+. Full terms are available at PointsBet.

Caesars Sportsbook

$1,100

Get up to $1,100 in First Bet Insurance!

Sign up for a new Caesars Sportsbook account

Make your first deposit of $50+

If your first bet is not a winner, get it all back as a free bet (up to $1,100) if you lose!

21+. Terms and conditions apply.

BetRivers

$250

Get a $250 Deposit Bonus!

Sign up for a new BetRivers account using promo code PICKSWISE

Make a deposit & get it doubled up to $250 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $100

Must be 21+. Play in IA Only. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-BETS OFF

Unibet

$500

Get a $500 Risk-Free Bet!

Register for a new Unibet account & make a deposit

Place your first bet up to $500 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $500

New players only. Terms & conditions apply. 21+. VA only.

BetMGM

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new BetMGM & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

FanDuel Sportsbook

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Risk Free Bet!

Register for a new FanDuel Sportsbook account & deposit

Place your first bet up to $1,000 risk-free!

Get refunded up if you lose up to $1,000

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

DraftKings

$1,000

Get a $1,000 Deposit Bonus!

Register for a new DraftKings Sportsbook account & deposit

DraftKings will match 20% of your deposit up to $1,000 total

To get a $100 bonus, deposit $500

21+. Terms & conditions apply.

Monkey Knife Fight

$100

Claim 100% Instant Deposit Match up to $100!

Register for a Monkey Knife Fight account & deposit using promo code PICKSWISE100

Monkey Knife Fight will match your first deposit up to $100

Deposit $100 and you'll get $100 bonus + a free $5 game

18+. Terms and conditions apply. You must live in one of the states where real money DFS is legal.

Yahoo DFS

$25

Get $25 in Site Credit With Yahoo DFS When You Deposit $5!

Register for a new account with Yahoo DFS and deposit $5+

Enter a $5 DFS contest

Upon entry, you will receive a bonus $25 in credit into your account!

21+ and new players only. Full terms available from Yahoo DFS.

TVG

$300

Get a $300 Risk-Free Bet with TVG Racebook!

Register for a new TVG account and make a deposit

Place your first single horse win-type bet up to $300

If your horse doesn't win you'll get a refund up to $300

21+. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

TwinSpires

$200

Get a $200 Sign-Up Bonus with Twinspires Racebook!

Open your TwinSpires.com account using offer code BET200

$200 bonus cash will be credited in increments of $100 for every $400 wagered

To earn the full $200 bonus players must wager $800 within 30 days

21+. Terms and conditions apply.