The College Football Playoff rolls along on Thursday with a fascinating game between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Indiana Hoosiers in the Rose Bowl. Alabama is coming off a win over Oklahoma in dramatic comeback fashion in the opening round of the playoff, while Indiana was idle following its victory over Ohio State in the Big Ten title game. Thursday’s Rose Bowl action kicks off at 4:00 pm ET on ESPN. To get you set for this matchup, I have pieced together my best bets in the form of a Alabama vs Indiana Rose Bowl parlay. Let’s get into the picks, but don’t forget to check out our NCAAF predictions for odds and picks on every bowl and College Football Playoff game.
Indiana -7 (-110)
Under 48.5 (-115)
Elijah Sarratt (IND) anytime touchdown scorer (+100)
Alabama vs Indiana Same Game Parlay odds: +615
Indiana Hoosiers -7 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-110)
It’s hard to ignore the value that we’re getting on Indiana to win Thursday’s contest by only a touchdown in a game where the Hoosiers not only have Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza on their side, but Indiana’s extremely balanced offense (2nd in success rate, 2nd in EPA per play, 3rd in points per drive) should see consistent success against an Alabama defense that has struggled at points against teams with strong passing attacks. The Crimson Tide are also operating at a significant disadvantage on special teams in this game, and that is certainly a factor that could rear its ugly head on Thursday.
Alabama’s biggest issues has been its inability to run the ball, and those struggles continued into its matchup with Oklahoma a few weeks ago. Running back Jam Miller has been banged up, and even if he does end up playing in this one, it’s far from a guarantee that Alabama will suddenly see success on the ground against an Indiana defense that is 3rd in rushing success rate allowed and 2nd in opponent EPA per rush. Ty Simpson has struggled when pressured this season and the Hoosiers secondary just performed well against Ohio State’s outstanding trio of wide receivers, so I wouldn’t expect them to be intimidated by the Crimson Tide wideouts. Ultimately, I can only look toward laying the points with the top-ranked team in the nation in this one.
Read our full Alabama vs Indiana prediction for the Rose Bowl
Under 48.5 (-115)
Despite the fact that both offenses have the capability of putting up points, this is a game where both defenses should have their say by the time the game ends. On one side, the Indiana defense is one of the best units in the nation, as we saw against the likes of Oregon and Ohio State earlier this season. Time and again, the Hoosiers have proven that their success up front is no fluke, and they should be able to dominate the matchup against a poor Alabama offensive line and put pressure on Ty Simpson as a result. Simpson has struggled when under duress this season, and he could easily be forced into a turnover by the Hoosiers in this game.
As for the Crimson Tide, this is not a vintage Nick Saban era defense, but Kane Womack is still one of the better defensive minds in the country, and I expect his unit to respond to the challenge against an Indiana offense that has largely done what its wanted to against any opponent all season long. Ultimately, the under is my preferred wager in terms of a game total on Thursday.
Elijah Sarratt (IND) anytime touchdown scorer (+100)
For our final pick in this SGP, let’s target Indiana wide receiver Elijah Sarratt to find the end zone for a 13th time this season. Sarratt has been one of the most dependable targets in the nation for an offense that often relies on the senior to make key plays on pivotal downs. Sarratt and Mendoza have established an excellent rapport throughout the campaign, and given the fact that the Alabama secondary hasn’t faced a quality passing offense in over a month, the Hoosiers should be able to find soft spots in the back four and generate explosive plays as a result. Look for Sarratt to haul in a touchdown for the eighth consecutive game.
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