Javan Shouey
The American League Championship Series is set and either the Toronto Blue Jays or Seattle Mariners will represent the AL in the World Series this season. It is refreshing to see 2 new teams climb to the top this season, especially in the ways they did so. This ALCS is set to be a classic matchup, starting with the 1st inning of Game 1!
YRFI/NRFI Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners – YRFI (-111)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
The Toronto Blue Jays will play on 3 days rest tonight after defeating the New York Yankees in 4 games during their American League Divisional Series. Seattle is on just 1 day of rest, and it was a much-needed day after their Game 5 victory over the Cubs took 15 hard-fought innings. Toronto is also at home for this matchup which is obviously an advantage as well. Things are set up well for Toronto to grab a Game 1 win on paper, but the Mariners have been a resilient and feisty team all season long.
Kevin Gausman is set to start this Game 1 matchup for the Blue Jays, marking his 2nd postseason start and 34th overall start of the season. Gausman posted a 3.59 ERA across 193 regular season innings this season for Toronto, and his only postseason start so far resulted in 5.2 innings of 1-run ball against the Yankees. While those numbers are certainly strong, and his track record is proven over his career, the Mariners are more than capable of striking early. Seattle possesses power across several spots in their lineup, and they did score 3 earned runs off him in their only matchup earlier this season.
The real reason I lean towards the YRFI in this game is how I see the bottom of the 1st playing out. Bryce Miller is the starter in Game 1 for the Mariners essentially by default as Seattle was tasked with using most of their arms in Game 5 against Detroit. In what was one of the greatest baseball games I have ever watched, Seattle’s pitching depth was tested as they used several starters in relief for that game. Miller did toss 4.1 innings of 2-run ball against the Tigers in Game 4 on October 8th and is now starting a massive game on 3 days of rest. It will be interesting to see how deep he can work in this outing, but I think the Blue Jays can pounce on him from the very start. Miller was only able to make 18 regular season starts, and his 5.68 ERA across 90.1 innings was a clear step down in production. His 5.61 ERA in September doesn’t instill a ton of confidence and I lean towards the YRFI in this game at current pricing.
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