Ricky Dimon
Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova will battle for the women’s singles title at Wimbledon on Saturday afternoon. Both players may be ranked outside the top 3, but they are without question worthy finalists. Swiatek is already a 5-time Grand Slam champion, while Anisimova has been in outstanding form pretty much this entire season.
Let’s take a look at the Wimbledon best bets to be made on the Day 13 schedule.
Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 games (-112)
Swiatek is a sizable favorite, so the question is if Anisimova can keep it close. I think she should be able to – if not even win the match outright. The world #12 owns a 12-2 record during this grass-court swing, which includes a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club. She is also 31-12 for the year on the whole. Anisimova made a statement right away at Wimbledon by issuing a 6-0, 6-0 double-bagel to Yulia Putintseva in the opening round, plus – even more importantly – she upset top seed Aryna Sabalenka in the semis. Three of Anisimova’s last 4 outings have required a third set and her quarterfinal contest against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova went to a second-set tiebreaker. Moreover, the pressure of a Grand Slam final will make it difficult for either woman to close this out in quick fashion.
Amanda Anisimova +1.5 aces vs Iga Swiatek (-138)
I don’t think Swiatek’s superior returning ability is enough to offset the fact that Anisimova is the bigger server. Swiatek is getting aced on 4.7 percent of her return points over the last 52 weeks; in the same span, Anisimova is getting aced on 5.3 percent of her return points. Needless to say, that is not a significant difference. Through 6 matches at Wimbledon, Anisimova has hit more aces than Swiatek – 23 to 21. Those aren’t huge numbers for either player, so it’s hard to see the ace count climbing super high on Saturday. It would not be a surprise to see them tie with something like 1 ace or 2 aces apiece. Anisimova also has good value at +225 to hit more aces than her opponent.
Iga Swiatek vs Amanda Anisimova Over 15.5 total break points (-120)
Swiatek is winning almost half of her return points at Wimbledon – 48 percent, to be exact, which is an especially impressive mark on grass. Anisimova is not too far behind at 46 percent. The 2 finalists have combined for 55 service breaks while generating a 115 break points. Meanwhile, Swiatek has fought off 27 of 33 break points against her and Anisimova has saved 33 of 45. Saving break points can result in a lot of break-point opportunities, since that obviously prolongs the game. It should also be noted that Anisimova has turned in 36 double-faults at this event – at least 12 more than any other women. Her double-fault numbers in her last 5 rounds are 9, 8, 6, 6 and 5. In the biggest match of her career against one of the WTA Tour’s best returners, the doubles could be even more plentiful on Saturday. Both women – but Swiatek, especially – will likely see a lot of break chances.
