College football’s regular season officially wraps up with perhaps the best and most honorable rivalry in all of sports on Saturday afternoon. It’s Army vs Navy on the gridiron, and this year’s showdown between these 2 service academies is set for M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.
Here is my Same Game Parlay for the festivities, which get underway at 3:00 pm ET on CBS. Also be sure to check out our full Army vs Navy predictions.
Army ML (+225)
Over 38.5 (-108)
Cale Hellums to record 100+ rushing yards (-165) and to score a touchdown (-150)
Parlay odds: +625
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. That is the entire plan here, as Army quarterback Cale Hellums having a huge day on the ground would obviously work well with a win Black Knights victory. Let’s break down all of the legs.
Army ML (+225)
Navy has been the superior side throughout this season, but metrics that are measured on paper can largely be thrown out the window when it comes to this particular matchup. What happens on the field is what matters – and in Army vs Navy just about anything and everything can happen. As considerable underdogs, value is on the Black Knights. Thay are almost certainly going to give up a decent amount of points this weekend, but they can overcome that with their own offense. Hellums has been fantastic throughout his junior campaign and now gets to face a Navy defense that is #112 overall in the nation (almost 400 yards per game allowed) and gives up 27 points per outing. Give me an eager Army squad to avenge last year’s loss and get back in the win column against its arch rival.
Over 38.5 (-108)
This play correlates nicely with the Black Nights winning outright, as they probably aren’t going to come out on top if this turns into a relative defensive grind. The Midshipmen are almost certain to score their fair share of points, which means the underdogs will have to do their own damage on the scoreboard in order to keep up. Army isn’t going to win this one with defense – not when Navy’s offense is basically a video game. The Midshipmen are #1 in the nation in rushing and in the top 25 in scoring at 32.5 points per contest. Quarterback Blake Horvath has accounted for 23 total touchdowns – 14 on the ground and 9 through the air. On the other side of the ball, Navy surrendered 23 points to Tulsa, 31 to Temple, 24 to UAB and 31 to Air Force. It’s also worth noting that the weather will be pleasant on Saturday in Baltimore, which you don’t always get in this annual mid-December contest. As such, the offenses will be given a fair chance to move the ball. Following a flurry of low-scoring affairs between these 2 programs, the over has cashed in 2 of the last 3 head-to-head.
Cale Hellums to record 100+ rushing yards (-165) and to score a touchdown (-150)
First of all, Army is going to keep the ball on the ground. That’s what it always does regardless of the situation. As a considerable underdog on Saturday, it has every reason to shorten the game to the greatest possible extent. Churning the clock is the way to go about business. A ton of QB keepers will do that, and it should also lead to a boatload of yards for Hellums. The junior has exceeded the century mark in 4 of the last 6 outings and during this stretch has not rushed for fewer than 90 yards. In fact, he has gained at least 118 in 4 of the last 6. I also have no reservations about backing Hellums to find the endzone, as Army is unlikely to win – and that’s a gross understatement – if its QB does not run for at least 1 touchdown. He comes in with 15 rushing TDs.
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