Ricky Dimon
This may not have the sizzle of a Jannik Sinner vs Carlos Alcaraz matchup or even something like Sinner/Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic, but the U.S. Open women’s singles final is a blockbuster battle in its own right. Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova is a rematch of the recent Wimbledon semis, won by Anisimova in 3 sets. In her second consecutive Grand Slam championship match, the American is aiming for her first such title. Sabalenka is the defending champion in New York, but she is still seeking he first major triumph of the 2025 campaign.
Here are my best bets for Day 14 at Flushing Meadows.
Amanda Anisimova +3.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-115)
There is no question about the quality of Anisimova’s tennis. She has been playing at an incredible level dating back to Wimbledon (aside from the final against Swiatek). The only question was about how she would handle the double-bagel loss and how she will fare mentally in her second chance in a Grand Slam championship round. If there were any lingering effects of what happened at the All-England Club, they would have shown up against the same opponent in the U.S. Open quarters. Instead, the 24-year-old got revenge on Swiatek in convincing 6-4, 6-3 fashion. Shen then beat 2-time U.S. Open winner Naomi Osaka 6-7(4), 7-6(3), 6-3 on Thursday night. Most importantly, Anisimova leads the head-to-head series with Sabalenka 6-3 – including 3-2 at majors. I have Anisimova winning this one outright, so asking her to simply cover a +3.5 games spread should not be too much.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Over 21.5 games (-110)
Long, competitive matches were the theme of a thrilling semifinal lineup. Before Anisimova and Osaka played 35 total games, Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula lasted 29 games in a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 victory for the world #1. Recent head-to-head meetings would suggest something similar taking place on Saturday. Their recent Wimbledon tilt produced 30 games, with Anisimova getting the job done 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Four of their last 7 matches have required a decisive third set. It should also be noted that these are 2 of the best servers in the game. Even if it’s a straight-set match, it could result in a sizable number of games since at least 1 tiebreaker should be expected.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Amanda Anisimova Over 8.5 aces (-120)
This actually might be my favorite play on the match. These are 2 of the biggest servers and all-around hitters on the WTA Tour. Anisimova has struck 35 aces during this tournament, second in the women’s field behind only Naomi Osaka. Sabalenka has hit 24, but keep in mind that she has played only 5 matches instead of 6 since she got a quarterfinal walkover from Marketa Vondrousova. The Belarusian has enjoyed plenty of success firing winners past this particular opponent. She hit 6 in the Wimbledon semis and 11 at Roland Garros. Their French Open contest this spring resulted in 14 aces even though it ended in straight sets and was played on clay, a surface that generally produces the fewest aces. Finally, neither player is especially adept in the returning department. Over the past 52 weeks, Anisimova is getting aced on 4.9 percent of her return points; for Sabalenka it’s 4.4 percent (the tour average among top-50 players is 4.1). All signs point toward a festival of aces on Saturday.
