Ricky Dimon
It will be #1 vs #2 for the women’s singles French Open title on Saturday afternoon at Roland Garros. Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff have played their way into a blockbuster final battle, largely doing so without much trouble.
Which women will add to Grand Slam championship count? Let’s take a look at my best bets on the Day 14 schedule.
Coco Gauff +3.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-125)
Sabalenka is a considerable favorite, but there are plenty of reasons to think that Gauff will be competitive if not even win it outright. Their head-to-head series is all tied up at 5-5 overall, including 1-1 on clay. It is also 1-1 at Grand Slams, while the American won their only previous slam final matchup at the 2023 U.S. Open. Moreover, Gauff has been the most consistent clay-courter this season. She finished runner-up in both Madrid and Rome and now finds herself in a third consecutive championship match. The world #2 has dropped only 1 set this fortnight. Sabalenka is also playing great, but the Belarusian was only dominant in her first 3 matches at Roland Garros; she has been tested in each of the last 3. Before this event began, Gauff was my 3-star best bet to win the title; there is no reason to waffle now.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Coco Gauff Over 21.5 games (-110)
For the same reasons as mentioned above, Gauff has a good chance to keep it close and turn this into a long match. Sabalenka’s last 3 matches have produced 21, 22, and 29 games; it’s not like she is destroying opponents with ease. Before getting a very favorable semifinal draw against Lois Boisson, Gauff played 3 consecutive matches with 1 set going to either 7-5 or 7-6, and her quarterfinal against Madison Keys was a 3-setter (30 games). Saturday’s showdown could very easily be another 3-setter, but even a straight-set match has a good chance of surpassing a modest 21.5 number.
Aryna Sabalenka -0.5 aces vs Coco Gauff (-120)
In 10 head-to-head encounters, both women have struck 28 aces. That’s a wash, so let’s take a look at the current tournament. Sabalenka has fired 28 aces through 6 rounds; Gauff has struck only 6. Breaking it down in averages, it’s 0.49 per game for Sabalenka and 0.1 per game for Gauff. Given how well Gauff is playing from the baseline, Sabalenka will be inclined to continue going for huge serves in an effort to keep points short. Gauff may want to simply get her serves in play and start the rally – especially since double-faults are a problem. The #2 seed has double-faulted 33 times at this French Open compared to her opponent’s 12. The best way to eliminate double-faults, of course, is to not have to hit second serves. Gauff should focus on serving at a higher percentage at the expense of taking more risks and hitting outright aces.
