Australian Open men's singles final predictions

We have arrived at the grand finale of the Australian Open, where the men’s singles championship match will take center stage on Sunday night. It is not the rivalry that everyone expected, but it is an epic rivalry nonetheless. Instead of Jannik Sinner on the other side of the net, Carlos Alcaraz’s opponent will be familiar foe Novak Djokovic. 

Let’s take a look at my best bets for Sunday’s can’t-miss matchup in Rod Laver Arena.

To be abundantly clear, I would avoid this match like the absolute plague unless I was simply forced to bet on it. Rarely (if ever) have I encountered a tennis match (or perhaps even any sporting event) that is tougher to handicap.

It is impossible to know how either finalist will turn up on Sunday. Alcaraz is coming off a 5-hour and 27-minute semifinal war with Alexander Zverev in which the Spaniard suffered from a leg cramp for much of the match. Djokovic is 38 years old and needed four hours and nine minutes to beat Sinner in a match that ended close to 2:00 in the morning. If either one is physically compromised, the other one could easily prevail in easy straight sets. If they are in a similar physical state, it could just as easily turn into another epic 5-setter.

There’s simply no way to know. Alas, this is how I would play it: 

Novak Djokovic +5.5 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-125)  

When you eliminate the unknown variables from the equation, the value is on Djokovic as a sizable underdog. The Serb’s recovery will be aided by the fact that he played a combined 2 and a half sets in the fourth round (walkover) and quarterfinals (retirement), plus his semifinal match was more than an hour shorter than Alcaraz’s. Djokovic is 2-1 against Alcaraz on outdoor hard courts, including 1-0 at the Australian Open after winning last year’s quarterfinal contest in 4 sets. Moreover, all of the pressure is on Alcaraz as he tries to complete the career Grand Slam. Djokovic, on the other hand, has already won this tournament 10 times and is a 24-time slam champion overall.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Over 0.5 tiebreakers (-110) 

In 9 previous H2H encounters, Alcaraz and Djokovic have played 9 tiebreakers. Four of their last 10 sets dating back to the 2024 Wimbledon championship match have required a tiebreaker. Additionally, Alcaraz played 3 ‘breakers in the semis against Zverev and the world #1 has played at least 1 tiebreaker in 4 of his 6 rounds during this event.

Novak Djokovic Under 9.5 aces vs Carlos Alcaraz (-120) 

In their 9 head-to-head contests, not a single time has Djokovic hit 10 aces. In fact, he has never recorded more than 8. Why should he suddenly be expected to crack at least 10 on Sunday, when fatigue could be a factor and both guys may have trouble putting max power on their serves? Over the last 52 weeks, Alcaraz ranks #8 out of the top 100 players in being the most difficult to ace (5.1 percent of his return points result in aces). In their 2025 Aussie Open quarterfinal showdown, Djokovic hit just 5 aces even though it was a relatively long 4-set affair.