And just like that the quarterfinals are upon us at the Australian Open. Yes, the fields on both the men’s and women’s sides have dwindled down to 8 players. Half of them will be bidding for semifinal spots on Tuesday. Among those taking the court are Carlos Alcaraz, Aryna Sabalenka and Coco Gauff.
Let’s take a look at my best bets on the Day 10 schedule at Melbourne Park.
Elina Svitolina +3.5 games over Coco Gauff (-110)
Svitolina was also an easy winner for me over Mirra Andreeva on Sunday, and there is no reason to get off the bandwagon now. Svitolina is absolutely on fire in 2026. In fact, she has not lost a single match (9-0). The Ukrainian’s season-opening run includes a title in Auckland, where she beat fellow Aussie Open quarterfinalist Iva Jovic in the semis. Svitolina has lost only 1 set this entire year, including none through 4 rounds at Melbourne Park. Gauff leads the head-to-head series 2-1, but it is 4-4 in total sets in those three matches. Not once has the American defeated Svitolina in straight sets. Gauff is also playing well right now, but she can’t be fully trusted given her well-documented serving woes.
Iva Jovic Over 1.5 service breaks vs. Aryna Sabalenka (-125)
Jovic has come out of the 2026 gates like gangbusters. The 18-year-old American is 11-2 overall with a runner-up finish in Hobart and 4 straight-set victories at the Australian Open. In those 4 matches, only 1 set has been more competitive than 6-3. Jovic trounced Yulia Putintseva 6-0, 6-1 on Sunday. Through 4 rounds, Jovic has broken serve on a ridiculous 21 occasions. Her opponents are holding serve an anemic 36 percent of the time. Obviously Sabalenka is her toughest test to date, but the world #1 has been broken 8 times through 4 matches in Melbourne. It doesn’t take a math major to decipher that the average is twice per match — and Sabalenka has not yet faced a returner of Jovic’s caliber.
Alex de Minaur +6.5 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-135)
Tommy Paul +7.5 games against Alcaraz was an easy win in round 4 and I’m going right back to the well for the quarterfinals. De Minaur has been awesome so far in Melbourne — and really has been for an entire year now dating back to his first quarterfinal appearance at this tournament in 2025. The sixth-ranked Aussie was especially impressive on Sunday, when he destroyed a previously red-hot Alexander Bublik in straight sets. Alcaraz is sweeping the head-to-head series 5-0, but 2 of their matches have required a final set and De Minaur forced a first-set tiebreaker at the Nitto ATP Finals this past fall. He knows he can be competitive in this matchup — especially in front of the home crowd.
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