Third-round action at the Australian Open wraps up on Saturday, when Novak Djokovic, Jannik Sinner, Iga Swiatek, Naomi Osaka, and Madison Keys take the court. The high is north of 100 degrees, so that could be a factor across various matches. Players – and bettors – better be ready.
Let’s take a look at my best bets on the Day 7 schedule at Melbourne Park.
Ben Shelton -1.5 sets over Valentin Vacherot (-163)
Shelton is without question the superior player in this matchup, but the biggest difference could be something intangible: Grand Slam experience. The seventh-ranked American is only 23 years old, but he is already a 2-time major semifinalist (including at the Aussie Open) and has reached 2 other major quarterfinals (including at the Aussie Open). To say that Shelton thrives on the big stage would be a gross understatement. He is up to his usual tricks this week, reaching the third round without losing a single set – including an impressive victory over Ugo Humbert on Tuesday. The story is much different for Vacherot. Prior to this event, the 27-year-old from Monaco had played just 1 main-draw match at a Grand Slam in his entire career. Vacherot has been playing well dating back to last fall, but the sample size of his overall success is small. Shelton is a far more proven, reliable performer.
Ethan Quinn +4.5 games over Jakub Mensik (-118)
No one at Melbourne Park in either the men’s or women’s draw has been more impressive in terms of results than Quinn so far. The former NCAA champion at the University of Georgia disposed of Tallon Griekspoor 6-2, 6-3, 6-2 and then clobbered a previously red-hot Hubert Hurkacz 6-4, 7-6(5), 6-1. This is another good spot for Quinn as a sizable underdog. Physicality has been a minor issue for Mensik in the relatively early stages of his career, and it could be again on Saturday for the 20-year-old Czech. It’s going to be scorching hot, and Mensik has already played a ton of tennis this season. He played multiple matches at the United Cup in Week 1 and is coming off a title last week in Auckland. Quinn is completely on fire and has a good chance to win this one outright.
Parlay: Novak Djokovic -1.5 sets over Botic van de Zandschulp and Taylor Fritz -1.5 sets over Stan Wawrinka (-155)
Van de Zandschulp is rarely an easy out for the best players in the world, but Djokovic should be extremely motivated. One, this is a Grand Slam – and the 24-time slam champion is most definitely a much different beast in these stages than anywhere else at this point in his career. That’s why can pretty much discount his loss to Van de Zandschulp last spring in Indian Wells. If anything, that will only serve as extra motivation for the 38-year-old Serb. He has been absolutely dominant through 2 rounds and more of the same should be in store for this weekend. Meanwhile, Wawrinka is 40 years old and coming off a 5-set marathon in the second round. That is not a good recipe for more success – especially not against an opponent of Fritz’s caliber. This is Wawrinka’s final Aussie Open…and almost certainly his final Aussie Open match.
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