We have already reached the fourth round of the Australian Open. Yes, the fields are dwindling fast; some of the quarterfinalists will already be determined by the end of play on Sunday. Among those bigging for a place in the last 8 are Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, Aryna Sabalenka and Mirra Andreeva.
Let’s take a look at my best bets on the Day 8 schedule at Melbourne Park.
Daniil Medvedev vs Learner Tien Over 37.5 games (-120)
Medvedev and Tien played an instant classic against each other at last year’s Aussie Open, with Tien prevailing in a fifth-set tiebreaker. The rematch should be every bit as entertaining, competitive and long, because both guys are playing great. Medvedev is 22-4 in his last 26 matches, with two titles during this stretch. Tien won the NextGen ATP Finals in December and now finds himself in the fourth round of this event for a second straight year. It’s also worth noting that these 2 players bring very similar styles to the table – even though they look a lot different and Medvedev does wield a bigger serve. They are counter-punchers who play incredible defense, give their opponents basically no free points and are willing to stay out there for as long as it takes. All 4 of their previous head-to-head matchups have required final sets; this one could be no different.
Elina Svitolina +3.5 games over Mirra Andreeva (-116)
Speaking of 2 players in outstanding form, this showdown also qualifies. Andreeva owns a 9-1 record so far in 2026, and that still pales in comparison to Svitolina’s. That’s right; the Ukrainian is perfect this season at 8-0 – which features a title in Auckland, where she beat a red-hot Iva Jovic in the semifinals. Svitolina has lost just 1 set in 8 matches this season – and none through 3 rounds in Melbourne. It is true that Andreeva won their only previous encounter 7-5, 6-3 last year in Indian Wells, but that was when the Russian was playing the best tennis of her career (she went on to win the tournament) and Svitolina was coming off a tough 3-setter against Jessica Pegula in the previous round. Now it’s the 31-year-old who is on an absolute roll, plus Andreeva has been a bit mentally unstable on court dating back to the 2025 French Open.
Tommy Paul +7.5 games over Carlos Alcaraz (-120)
Don’t sleep on Tommy Paul. He is in awesome form and would be ranked much higher than #20 if not for injuries that kept him out for much of the second half of last year. The American has not dropped a single set through 3 rounds at the Aussie Open – not even close, in fact. He also won’t be afraid of this particular matchup. This was actually one of tennis’ best rivalries in 2022 and 2023, as they waged a series of memorable matches – 2 of which Paul won. Alcaraz leads the overall head-to-head series 5-2, but only once in 7 matches has the Spaniard completely routed Paul – and that was when the underdog was injured last season at Roland Garros. Count on Paul at least being competitive on Sunday.
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