We have reached the finish line at the Australian Open, where the women’s singles championship will take center stage on Saturday night. It should be a good one, just as it was in 2023 – when Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina also battled for the title at Melbourne Park. Sabalenka is bidding for her third trophy Down Under and fifth Grand Slam triumph overall, while Rybakina is hoping to secure her second slam after winning Wimbledon in 2022.
Let’s take a look at my best bets.
Elena Rybakina +2.5 games over Aryna Sabalenka (-118)
The margins between these 2 players are so small that the value is always going to be on the underdog. In this case, that is Rybakina. Sabalenka is priced as a considerable favorite, but this is pretty much an even matchup in my book. Although Rybakina trails the head-to-head series 6-4, she is 4-2 in their last 6 meetings since losing their first 4 encounters. They most recently faced each other this past fall in the championship match of the WTA Finals, where Rybakina triumphed 6-3, 7-6(0). That result is part of the Kazakh’s current streak in which she is 19-1 in her last 20 matches. Her run in Melbourne features six consecutive straight-set victories, including over world #2 Iga Swiatek in the quarterfinals and world #6 Jessica Pegula in the semis. Sabalenka is also playing well, but she has not defeated anyone ranked higher than #12 so far this fortnight. Rybakina is battle tested, which could serve her well in the pressure moments of what is almost certain to be an extremely competitive contest.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 games (-110)
It’s hard to see either player winning this match in convincing fashion. Yes, Rybakina is in amazing form – but so is Sabalenka. In fact, the world #1 has not lost a match this season and she also has not dropped a set so far at Melbourne Park. Just as Sabalenka is unlikely to wipe Rybakina off the court, it is similarly improbable to think that the Belarusian might lose in routine fashion. Eight of their 14 head-to-head meetings have required a third set, including 2 third-set tiebreakers dating back to the spring of 2024. Their 2023 Australian Open final was a 3-setter that lasted 29 games. Another 3-set thriller should be expected, but even a straight-set result with 1 tiebreaker would have a good chance of exceeding this 22.5 number.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Over 13.5 total aces (-120)
The key to this bet, of course, is that the match is competitive – in other words, long. Obviously the more games that are played, the more chances each woman has to hit aces. Rybakina is averaging 6.8 aces per match this fortnight even though she has played nothing but 2-setters. She is averaging 3.4 aces per set in her head-to-head history with Sabalenka. That means over course of 3 sets she averages more than 9 aces by herself. As if that isn’t enough, let’s take the most important data point into account: their previous Australian Open matchup. In the 2023 final, Sabalenka (17) and Rybakina (9) combined for a whopping 26 aces. In their only other meeting on the continent (2024 in Brisbane, where conditions are similar), they combined for 10 aces even though the match only lasted 15 games.
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