Christmas week continues with a pair of Saturday specials in the NFL, including a showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Green Bay Packers. It is close to over for Baltimore (7-8), which needs to win out and have Pittsburgh lose out in order to make the playoffs. Green Bay (9-5-1) wrapped up a playoff spot with Detroit’s Christmas Day loss, but it remains in contention for the NFC North crown.
I have been cashing Same Game Parlays left and right throughout the 2025 season, including 2 of my 4 efforts during Week 16 (+650 in Packers vs Bears and +600 in 49ers vs Colts). I also nailed both of my player prop bets for Cowboys vs Commanders on Thursday. Let’s keep the momentum rolling with my SGP for this 8:00 pm ET kickoff on Peacock. Also be sure to check out our full Ravens vs. Packers predictions.
Packers -4.5 (+100)
Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-110)
Derrick Henry to record 80+ rushing yards (+121)
Parlay odds: +900
Part of the value in a Same Game Parlay, of course, is that all of its components can be correlated if you so choose. At the same time, plays that aren’t correlated drive up the overall payout of the parlay. That is the entire plan here, as Baltimore running back Derrick Henry having a big night at the office obviously goes against backing Green Bay against the spread. However, Henry performing well can pretty much be accepted as a given. As long as the Packers don’t let other players beat them, they can still take care of business even if Henry puts up significant numbers. Let’s break down each of the 3 legs.
Packers -4.5 (+100)
The Ravens’ path to the postseason is a lot more clear cut than the QB situations for both teams on Saturday. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (back) was downgraded from questionable to doubtful on Thursday. Green Bay’s Jordan Love (shoulder/concussion) is questionable. Regardless of how the quarterback carousel spins, the home side should be in the better shape of the 2. Simply put, Jackson is even more valuable to the Ravens than Love is to the Packers. GB backup Malik Willis has proven to be a dependable player and did well after replacing Love in last week’s overtime thriller against Chicago. Either Willis or Love will face a Baltimore defense that has allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league. Green Bay can also rely on the running game; Josh Jacobs has scored 11 touchdowns in the past 11 contests. Moreover, the Pack – even without Micah Parsons – are more reliable defensively than the visitors. Their QB play doesn’t have to be as electric as that of the Ravens for the team overall to be successful. The bottom line is that this has been a disastrous season by Baltimore’s lofty standards. Head coach John Harbaugh’s squad is just a lot worse on the field than it is on paper.
Derrick Henry to score a touchdown (-110)
Although the Ravens’ passing attack will likely leave a lot to be desired on Saturday, that would be nothing new for that outfit. It’s not how Baltimore operates. Instead, it feeds the rock to Henry early and often in most games. The 31-year-old has scored 12 touchdowns in 2025 and he ran all over a stellar New England defense in Week 16 (128 yards, 2 TDs). Henry has put at least one touchdown on the board in 4 of the last 6 outings.
Derrick Henry to record 80+ rushing yards (+121)
Weather conditions won’t be terrible at the Frozen Tundra (could be way worse this time of year!), but it will be very cold and not exactly conducive to passing the ball. Combine that with Jackson almost certainly being out for this game and the Ravens’ game-plan should be to keep the ball on the ground. When Henry is on your roster, that’s always a good idea regardless of any other circumstances. It has not been the former Alabama standout’s best season, but he has been productive of late. Henry has reached the 100-yard mark in 2 consecutive contests. Green Bay’s run defense is decent but unspectacular, giving up 103.8 yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry.
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