Bengals vs Ravens Picks, Props & Parlay: Thursday Night Football Best Bets for NFL Thanksgiving Week 13

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals meet Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in a huge AFC North showdown on NFL Thursday Night Football.

Andrew Wilsher

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Managing Editor of Pickswise. Born and raised in jolly old London, England, with an undying love for the NFL, NBA, soccer and horse racing. A big-time sports bettor who loves futures markets and backing underdogs. Long-suffering New York Jets fan. For Andrew Wilsher media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

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Bengals vs Ravens predictions & NFL Thanksgiving TNF picks

Bengals vs Ravens best bet: Bengals +7 (-110)

The Ravens eked out another win, their 5th straight, and with it reclaimed the top spot in the AFC North. A month-plus of nonstop victories is impressive, but they’re still leaving plenty to be desired. For example, their 5 straight wins came without a single game in which Lamar Jackson threw over 200 yards. Their rushing has been far more consistent and remains one of the best operations in the NFL (fifth in yards per carry, averaging 4.9), which is what we’ve been used to from John Harbaugh’s regime.

Defensively, we’re more impressed. Besides the Bears, who rank 9th in total offensive EPA, the Ravens’ defense has benefitted from an easy slate of opponents over the last 5 weeks. They’re still doing their jobs, and during the current winning streak, they’ve kept enemy offenses to just 307.6 yards per game — a far cry from the 380.3 yards per game they allowed in 6 previous battles. Still, we have yet to see the Ravens’ defense against an above-average offense. That won’t be the case on Thursday.

On the Bengals’ side, it’s all about Joe Burrow. Cincinnati is obviously one of the worst defenses in the NFL, ranked dead-last in total defensive EPA. Against the run, they rank 29th, which is even more concerning against the Ravens (156 opponent rush yards per game, 31st). But there’s a reality in which the Bengals can hang around if their star quarterback returns, a guy who instantly changes the mood of the entire franchise. At 3-8 and with very low chances of making a playoff run, we questioned whether Zac Taylor and the Bengals’ brass would let that happen. Despite our doubts, as of Monday reports from Cincinnati say the All-Pro will play, and he’ll be joined by fellow All-Pro Ja’Marr Chase, who’s coming off a suspension.

At first glance this seemed like an auto-bet on Baltimore but now we think it’s anything but. What opened as a -10.5-point spread is now down to -6.5 and for good reason. Other than Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, Burrow is as valuable as any single player. We like the Bengals’ extra juice from #9’s return to give us a close contest.

Bengals vs Ravens prediction: Over 51.5 (-110)

Recent history suggests this is going to be a really high-scoring game. It’s tough for us to refute that. Of course, the Ravens’ defense has certainly played better over 5-game their winning streak, allowing just 13.4 points per game. They also haven”t played anybody. The Bears have some good statistics (top-10 in offensive EPA), but they weren’t exactly shut down, gaining 372 total yards and just failing to convert in the red-zone. Their other opponents were all bottom-third operations.

We don’t need to mention the Baltimore offense, since at any point they’re gifted enough and surely dominant enough on the ground to score points. They average 25 per game, a top-10 mark, and the Bengals will still be without Trey Hendrickson, easily their best defensive player.

This total will be decided on the shoulders of Burrow, who allegedly (according to Tee Higgins), looks phenomenal in practice. Tee is out for this showdown (concussion), but the return of Ja’Marr Chase — who we imagine will be fired up and vengeful after a 1-game suspension — is a huge differentiator for their offense (79 receptions, 861 yards, both top-5 overall marks). Burrow and Chase competed together at LSU in their heyday, a duo that can completely take over a contest.

Baltimore won last week, but might’ve lost Kyle Hamilton in the process. The safety, arguably their best defensive player, incurred an ankle injury last week against New England.

This is an AFC North rivalry, so there’s always a chance the defense plays over their heads and the hitting’s a bit harder. Fortunately we wager on probabilities, and the market is trending in 1 direction for good reason.

Find out all of our expert Bengals vs Ravens picks for Thanksgiving TNF

Bengals vs Ravens player prop bets

Best Bengals vs Ravens player prop bet: Mike Gesicki (CIN) + Isaiah Likely (BAL) 25+ receiving yards (+170)

Your timeline will be flooded with all the big-name guys for the Thanksgiving slate: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. You do not need me to share a play on those guys in essentially a primetime slot. However, if I can indulge you in a small tight end SGP for the late game, then I’ll have reduced your exposure in the event one of those guys flops.

Mike Gesicki is going to jump in the pecking order for Cincinnati on TNF with Tee Higgins out of the lineup and playing a Baltimore defense ranked 6th in man-coverage rate. According to PFF, Gesicki sees a big boost in his production against man defense compared to zone, and he saw the 3rd-most targets for the Bengals in the first 2 weeks of the season with Burrow under center.

For Baltimore, I’m going with Isaiah Likely, who’s had a consistent 55%+ snap rate dating back to Week 5. The Bengals defense ranks last in yards allowed per coverage snap to opposing TEs and I think Likely is an under-the-radar play this week.

Read the rest of Prop Holliday’s best Bengals vs Ravens player prop bet analysis for TNF at plus-money odds

Bengals vs Ravens TD scorer best bet: Mike Gesicki (CIN) anytime touchdown scorer (+350)

There are a ton of moving parts for the Bengals’ offense heading into Thanksgiving. Joe Burrow will be suiting up for the first time since 9/14. Tee Higgins will be sidelined after sustaining a concussion last week, while Ja’Marr Chase returns after serving a 1-game suspension. But flying under the radar is Mike Gesicki. Gesicki returned to action last Sunday after a month-long IR stint. He reeled in four of six targets from Joe Flacco and will look to carry that momentum into Thursday with Joe Burrow against a Ravens defense that has faced a soft schedule over the last few weeks.

The no Tee Higgins factor can’t be overlooked. In five games last season without Higgins, Gesicki posted 5+ catches in four of those outings. Looking back to last week with no Chase, Gesicki lined up as a wide receiver on 26 snaps – An indication that he would be a focal point in the Bengals offense with a game total of 50+ points.

Bengals vs Ravens TD scorer prediction: Keaton Mitchell (BAL) anytime touchdown scorer (+425)

I’m back on the Keaton Mitchell train after a 2-carry performance last week. He failed to reach the end zone and was our only loss of the Week 12 Sunday TD piece. But with the news that the Ravens will be without running back Justice Hill on Thursday, Mitchell turns into an interesting play. He has explosive speed that the Ravens are intentionally trying to use more. He brings a different dimension than Derrick Henry, and teams are loading the box with Henry and Lamar Jackson in the backfield. It may take a screen play or a long run for Mitchell to score a TD, but at +425 odds, I’m targeting the speedster as our 2nd Bengals vs Ravens TD scorer bet.

After a +525 winner on TNF last week, get JutPicks’ full analysis for his Bengals vs Ravens touchdown scorer best bets for Thanksgiving

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens Same Game Parlay

After cashing SGPs at +753, +750 and +450 odds recently, don’t miss our Bengals vs Ravens SGP for TNF at +525

Bengals +7 (-110)

While the Ravens have climbed back into first place in the AFC North, Baltimore has still left plenty to be desired in those performances. In fact, just last week the Ravens were outgained by the lowly Jets at home in a game where Baltimore was plus-two in turnovers and very fortunate to win by double digits. Lamar Jackson has not thrown for over 200 yards in each of the last 5 games and his rushing totals are also much lower than what we saw from the 2-time MVP prior to the injury he suffered earlier this season. As for the Bengals, Cincinnati is getting Burrow back in the lineup, and the quarterback is almost as valuable of a player as any QB across the league. Given Baltimore’s struggles on offense, the visitors are certainly capable of keeping this thing close on Thursday.

Under 51.5 (-110)

Last year’s meetings between these teams produced plenty of fireworks, but I don’t foresee the same game script playing out this time around. As previously mentioned the Ravens’ offense has still not looked like themselves with Lamar Jackson working his way back from injury over the last month, specifically in the downfield passing game. With that in mind, even against a Bengals defense that is among the worst units in football, we’re not convinced that Baltimore will get back on track in this one. On the other side, Cincinnati is facing off against a Ravens defense that is trending up in recent weeks and should be primed for a solid effort at home in prime time. This total currently sits above the key number of 51, so the under is the only way I can look in this one.

Derrick Henry (BAL) to score a touchdown (-235)

The Ravens passing offense is a significant source for concern down the road this season and potentially into the AFC playoffs, but for now, Baltimore should be able to lean on its rushing attack and grind out some key wins against conference foes. That’s where Derrick Henry comes in, as the veteran running back should have quite the workload this week, especially given Jackson’s hesitance to run the ball himself in recent weeks. As long as Henry is upright on Thursday, he should get at least 18-20 more carries, including at least a couple in the red zone. Henry has racked up 3 touchdowns over the last 2 games, so let’s go back to the well with that angle to close out our SGP.