NFL Prop Bets

It’s difficult to find longshots in the Super Bowl of all places, but we managed to find it. There are only 3 healthy wide receivers on the Chiefs at the moment (Marquez Valdes-Scanting, Justin Watson and Skyy Moore) and Watson is the most intriguing. He played 56% of the snaps vs Jacksonville and was inactive vs Cincinnati. Watson has 2 TDs on the year and managed to do it in games in which he played less than 20% of the snaps. Mecole Hardman re-aggravated his hip injury in the AFC Championship and Kadarius Toney is nursing ankle and hamstring issues. Watson could see work in the red zone and is worth the flyer with so much uncertainty at the position for Kansas City.

These odds are absurd for who Quez Watkins is to this offense. Watkins has played more than 50% of the snaps in 15 of 17 games. He is the de facto big-threat wide receiver of the Eagles’ offense and has 3 TDs on the season. I would have expected him in the +350 to +400 range, but at this price we have to like it. The Eagles will look to make a splash play early to set the tone and put the Chiefs on their heels. The matchups over the last 2 weeks are likely driving this number so high. Watkins only played 22% of the snaps in the divisional round, with the better blocking WR, Zach Pascal, getting the nod against a weak rush defense. Against the 49ers, the Eagles were never in need of airing out the ball and Hurts didn’t throw a pass after 4:10 of the 3rd quarter. The Chiefs will represent a higher-octane passing attack than the Eagles have seen since Dallas in Week 16.

The Eagles have given up 14 TDs on the ground to opposing RBs this season and 2 in the last 2 games. Pacheco has not scored in the postseason but is taking 43.5% of the teams rush attempts inside the 10-yard line despite playing in only 11 regular-season games.

The Chiefs rank 30th in opponent red-zone scoring percentage and have given up 9 TDs to opposing TEs this season (tied for the 5th most). Goedert scored in the divisional round against the Giants and became an afterthought in the blowout vs SF. The Eagles’ TE only has one career game vs Kansas City (2021) and in that game he finished with 56 yards and a TD.

An additional two weeks for his high ankle sprain will help with his pocket mobility, but it still did not prevent him from throwing the ball 43 times vs Cincinnati in the AFC Championship. Mahomes for his postseason career averages 38 attempts per game and hit this line in 8 of 13 (61%); he also hit this in both Super Bowl appearances. While I do think the Chiefs will have success on the ground against the Eagles, the game-plan will rely on Mahomes’ arm — as we have seen in his previous two Super Bowl appearances. What I really like about this play is that it accounts for both game-scripts. If Philadelphia wins, Mahomes will have to throw playing from behind. If the Chiefs prevail, it will be because Mahomes is moving the ball up and down the field. The line is as high as 39.5 at other books, so this is a steal. 1U.

There is a lot to like about Pacheco in this upcoming game, but I have landed on his longest rush prop. He has hit this in 5 of the last 10, but most importantly he gets an ideal matchup. The Eagles have given this up 12 times all season and in 5 straight games. We saw Christian McCaffrey break free in the NFC Championship with the entire defense expecting him to be carrying the ball. Against Kansas City, Mahomes prevents any defense from stacking the box. Pacheco is coming off his second-highest snap percentage of the season, proving that Reid is not afraid to use him when it matters most. This is my favorite play of the entire Super Bowl. 1.5U.

We HAVE to have someone on the Eagles in this spot in case the game does not go our way. I mentioned before that Hurts carries the least amount of value for me in this market, but AJ Brown makes up for it. There has been a trend over the last 18 years: 5 wide receivers have won Super Bowl MVP in that span. The most recent being last year in Cooper Kupp. The “trick” to getting this award as a wide receiver is to have the game winning touchdown. Cooper Kupp, Julian Edelman, Santonio Holmes, and Hines Ward all had game winning TDs (Deion Branch tied the Super Bowl record with 11 receptions).

AJ Brown can be that iteration of this award for the Eagles, especially if this is a high scoring game. He’s been quiet this postseason…a little too quiet. Brown has the potential to put up an impressive stat line and steal this award away from Hurts, who just proved he can look pedestrian in a Eagles victory.

A tight end has never won this award before. There also has never been a tight end like Travis Kelce in NFL history. And that’s not a shot at Gronk, but you can start to make the case of Kelce over Gronkowski after tying Jerry Rice for most 100-yard receiving playoff games. Anytime you break a Jerry Rice record, you deserve your flowers. The path to Kelce winning this award is clear: 100 yards receiving, 2 TD (or game winning) and 9+ receptions.

He has three 2 TD performances, seven 100-yard receiving games, and five 9+ reception games in the postseason. This is all in his wheelhouse. Had he scored in Super Bowl 55, I think he would have already won this award.

As you can tell, I’m leaning Kansas City to pull off the upset. Mahomes getting two weeks of rest for his high-ankle sprain is huge, and obviously being in this spot twice before plays a major role in my decision. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have had one of the best seasons in recent memory and they have clear advantages sprinkled throughout this game (playmakers, offensive line, secondary); but this moment can catch even the best off-guard in their first appearance. For me, the Mahomes/Andy Reid combo is the way to go. Although I mentioned it’s best to play your favorite at 0.5U, I’m going a full 1U on this because I do believe the Chiefs win this game.

If you believe the Eagles win, I’d be reluctant to tail Jalen Hurts (+115) as they have several playmakers who can win this award with big games. As we saw in the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles can win games without Hurts looking overly impressive. Hurts has the least value for me in this entire market.

This is strictly a numbers play for me. Smith has hit this line in 7 straight games prior to the NFC Championship Game. I do not put any stock in the production level of any Philadelphia wide receiver in that game. Jalen Hurts did not throw the ball in the second half, and Sirianni went completely conservative after he built a 2-score lead. This will not be the case for the Super Bowl. By kickoff, this line will be at 65.5, so please make sure you do not wait on this line if you intend on playing. Smith averages 81 YPG for the season and after seeing what Tee Higgins did yesterday, I feel confident in Smith’s ability to get open against these KC cornerbacks. Play up to 63.5. 1U

This line is right where it should be, but the matchup is the intriguing one. Goedert was always going to have difficulty against San Francisco, but luckily this line is at the same mark. The Chiefs allow the 5th most targets per game to opposing TEs. The middle of the KC defense is a funnel, ranked 29th overall in DVOA versus pass direction. Goedert has seen 51% of his targets in the middle of the field and has one of the better mismatches of the Eagles offense. Play up to 47.5 for 1U.