If you like quality over quantity, then Friday’s abbreviated college hoops card is perfect for you. Only 7 games are on the docket, but among them are 2 Big East matchups, a Big 12 contest and an interesting MAC showdown between Toledo and Kent State — who are both 4-1 in conference play and hoping to stay right behind undefeated Miami (OH) in the league standings. Ahead of this small appetizer of college hoops before a monstrous Saturday slate, it’s time to get into my college basketball bets on Friday’s card. Let’s get into the analysis, and don’t forget about our NCAAB predictions for tips and picks on all the biggest college basketball games every day through the NCAA Tournament. For those looking ahead, Selection Sunday is only 2 months away!
CBB best bet: Kansas Jayhawks -7.5 over Baylor Bears (-115)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.
Both Baylor and Kansas come into this Big 12 showdown off impressive wins, but I only view one of those performances repeatable on Friday night. The Bears earned their first conference win of the season when they went into Stillwater and beat Oklahoma State by 15, but that win doesn’t erase the struggles Baylor has been met with thus far — especially against conference opponents.
Outside of league play, the Bears have relied on transition opportunities and points in the paint to propel their offense, but those wells have dried up against Big 12 foes. In fact, those season averages drop from around 15 and 38 points per game to about 5.5 and 26.5, respectively against Big 12 foes, which could be disastrous against Kansas. The Jayhawks have been elite defensively in transition, sitting in the 99th percentile in terms of efficiency per Hoop-Explorer. They have also excelled at limiting offense around the rim, boasting the 7th-best opposing near-proximity shooting percentage in the country per Haslametrics.
Without those easy buckets, Baylor’s offense must rely on mid-range jumpers and perimeter attempts created both off the dribble and via kick-outs, but is that a recipe for success against Kansas’ defense? I don’t think so. The Jayhawks also excel defensively in those areas, making it hard to see a path to success for Baylor — especially in a venue in which the Bears have historically struggled. For reference, Baylor has won just once at The Phog in program history.
Check out our full Baylor vs Kansas prediction
CBB best bet: DePaul Blue Demons -3.5 over Marquette Golden Eagles (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -4.5.
DePaul has shown improvement this season, boasting a 10-7 SU record along with a 11-6 ATS record – including 7 covers in its last 8 outings and 5 covers in 6 conference games. I like the Blue Demons to continue that run on Friday against a floundering Marquette squad that is just 6-12 SU and 5-13 ATS this season, including 2-5 ATS against Big East opponents.
Catching a falling knife with Marquette may seem appealing based on name recognition alone, but I don’t see it with this group. The Golden Eagles not only have lacked efficiency on both ends of the floor, but they are short-handed with Zaide Lowery leaving the program and Sean Jones and Ben Gold banged up. This isn’t the best situational spot for them, either, as they face their 2nd road game in as many outings. Frankly, Marquette has been horrible away from home, sitting 348th in effective field-goal percentage and 296th in effective field goal percentage allowed in both away and neutral venues this season. All of those games were double-digit losses.
Believe it or not, DePaul has actually been sound defensively in conference play — which plays a huge role in their ATS success. The Blue Demons are 3rd in the conference in opposing effective field-goal percentage, and they have been very efficient against transition opportunities, perimeter cuts and pick-and-pop sets — all areas Marquette looks to for offense. On the other end of the floor, DePaul will look to get to the rim to generate easy buckets — and it likely won’t be met with much resistance in that department given that Marquette allows shots at the rim 6% more than the average Division 1 team. The Blue Demons will also generate high-quality looks in the mid-range and via post-and-kick opportunities through CJ Gunn, Kaleb Banks and NJ Benson — and Marquette has struggled defensively in those areas, too. Those struggles are likely to continue here, especially if Gold misses this game as expected.
Read our full Marquette vs DePaul prediction
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