It’s been a slow week across the college basketball landscape due to finals, but the action will heat back up on Saturday with over 90 games on the docket. Conference play has begun in some leagues, but there are a few non-conference bangers up and down Saturday’s card, including Arkansas vs. Texas Tech, Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State, Marquette vs. Purdue, and Indiana vs. Kentucky – just to name a few.
To get you ready for Saturday’s massive college basketball slate, I’ve picked out 3 of my favorite bets of the day. Let’s dig into the picks, and don’t forget to check out our NCAAB predictions for picks and tips on all of the biggest college hoops games this season.
CBB Best Bet: Indiana Hoosiers +5.5 over Kentucky Wildcats (-115)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.
Playing against Kentucky in Rupp Arena on a Saturday seems like a tough pill to swallow, but I haven’t seen enough from the Wildcats to feel comfortable giving points in a competitive game against a power-conference opponent. Kentucky has yet to put together a complete performance against a high-level program, losing to each of the 4 top-25 opponents it has played per KenPom’s rankings – which includes a 67-64 home loss to North Carolina.
Indiana had a head-scratching performance against Minnesota and started horribly against Louisville, but the Hoosiers made up for it by dismantling Penn State on Tuesday 113-72. Penn State may not be any good, but the win highlighted Indiana’s upside, which was also showcased in wins over Marquette and Kansas State. Kentucky has yet to show that upside against capable opponents. Given how poorly the Wildcats have played in step-up games, I don’t see why they should be given more than 3 points for simply being the home team here. With 5 points in pocket, I like the perceived value on the Hoosiers here quite a bit.
CBB Best Bet: Michigan Wolverines -19 over Maryland Terrapins (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -22.
It’s not often that I lay double digits on the road in any game, much less a conference game with close to a 20-point spread, but have you watched this Michigan squad? The Wolverines are absolutely dominating teams, and not just at home. They beat San Diego State, Auburn and Gonzaga each by at least 30 points out in the Players Era in Las Vegas, and have beaten all but 2 opponents by at least 20 points thus far.
Michigan has one of, if not the best and most efficient defenses in the country when adjusting for opponents, holding its opposition to fewer than 38% from inside the 3-point line. The Wolverines also defend without fouling (19th in free throw rate allowed), are excellent at preventing second chance opportunities and have a top-20 block rate – which are defensive traits that travel well. On the other side of the floor, Michigan is just as elite, averaging 94 points per game with a top-10 effective field goal percentage. In fact, the Wolverines lead the country in 2-point percentage (65.1%) thanks to the efficiency of Morez Johnson, Ada Mara and Yaxel Lendeborg around the rim, supplemented by multiple shooters that connect on a least 39% of perimeter attempts in Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney and Nimari Burnett.
Simply, I don’t see how Maryland keeps up. The Terrapins have a very limited and one-dimensional offense and struggle to score consistently if they aren’t getting to the free throw line, which is unlikely to happen much against this Michigan defense. The Terps also don’t have a ton of size or depth, which the Wolverines have in abundance. This looks like another Michigan blowout.
CBB Best Bet: Arizona Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Over 177 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 179.5.
Under Nate Oats, Alabama is known for its extreme pace and high-volume three-point shooting, and much of the same is true this year. The Tide are top-10 in adjusted tempo, average possession length, and three-point rate through the first 5 weeks of the season, and they’ve been highly efficient doing so – sitting 2nd nationally in KenPom’s offensive efficiency despite playing the 5th-best defensive strength of schedule. They’ve shown the ability to score against anyone, dropping 80 or more in every game thus far. In fact, the Tide have scored at least 90 in all but 2 games and have surpassed the 100-point mark 3 different times.
Arizona isn’t going to balk at playing with pace, as the Wildcats are right around the top-40 in adjusted tempo and average possession length themselves. Unlike the Tide, they are 3rd-lowest nationally in three-point rate, but they make more than 37% of those attempts thanks to Anthony Dell’Orso and Dwayne Aristode – who mutually connect on more than 41% of their perimeter attempts. Where Arizona makes its hay offensively is around the rim, as the Wildcats average more than 48 points per game in the paint with over 41% of their shots coming within 4.5 feet of the rim (D1 average is 31.4%). That success should continue against this Bama defense, which doesn’t exactly limit rim action like some of the better interior defenses in the country.
Both of these teams are in the 95th percentile or higher in fastbreak points per game, as well as in the 85th percentile or better in percentage of points scored via fast break. Expect an up-and-down game with plenty of scoring.
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