Best College Basketball Bets Today: Expert NCAAB Picks for Saturday, December 20

On a Saturday controlled by the College Football Playoff and NFL, there is also a great slate of college hoops headlined by 3 ranked matchups. Each of those ranked matchups will tip off later in the day when Houston meets Arkansas in Newark at 5:30 pm ET, followed by Auburn vs. Purdue in Indianapolis at 6:30 pm ET and Duke vs. Texas Tech at 8:00 pm ET from Madison Square Garden. Other notable matchups include the double-header in Atlanta with St. John’s meeting Kentucky and Ohio State meeting North Carolina at 12:30 pm and 3:00 pm ET, respectively.

To get you set for Saturday’s hoops action, here are my NCAAB best bets of the day. Make sure you also check out our NCAAB predictions for tips and picks on all of the biggest games Saturday and beyond. 

CBB Best Bet: Memphis Tigers +4 over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.

Memphis is just 4-6 SU this year, but the Tigers are probably a bit better than their record indicates. They have played a top-12 strength of schedule per KenPom, and they are 8-2 ATS against that schedule. Memphis is much better than Mississippi State in that regard, as the Bulldogs are just 2-9 ATS despite their 6-5 SU record. Moreover, Penny Hardaway has been very good leading his team in the underdog role since the pandemic, sitting 23-11 ATS when catching 10 or fewer points since 2021. That includes a 7-3 ATS run in Memphis’s last 10 in this particular spot and a perfect 3-0 ATS this season with covers against Vanderbilt, Baylor, and Ole Miss. 

Mississippi State hasn’t fared well in step-up games this year. The Bulldogs are 6-0 SU against teams ranked outside KenPom’s top 100, but they are 0-5 SU against their top-100 opponents. Despite Memphis’ record, the Tigers are a top-75 team in the eyes of KenPom, although they struggle in the turnover department, aren’t very strong on the defensive glass, and foul frequently. Fortunately for Memphis, the Bulldogs don’t force many turnovers, are below average on the offensive glass, and make only 68% of their free throws. Furthermore, both of these offenses love mid-range jump shots, and Memphis is better defensively against those shots. In fact, the Tigers are 1st nationally in opposing mid-range shot percentage according to Haslametrics. 

CBB Best Bet: Washington State Cougars -7.5 over Mercer Bears (-110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -9.5.

This is a brutal spot for Mercer. The Bears played in Clemson last Saturday in what amounted to a 70-63 loss before then hitting the road to Orlando on Wednesday to play UCF in an 81-63 loss. Now, they have to fly all the way out to Pullman, Washington to play the Washington State Cougars in what will be their final game before Christmas. To make matters worse, Mercer is 358th in bench minutes according to KenPom, while Wazzu is 33rd. Simply put, I don’t know how the Bears will have the legs for this game.

The Cougars may not have the best record, but they have surpassed defensive expectations in 3 of their last 4 games. It should also be a breath of fresh air to be playing at home for just the second time in a month. Offensively, Wazzu has multiple capable shooters, as Tomas Thrastarson, Eemeli Yalaho, and Emmanuel Ugbo all connect on at least 38% of perimeter attempts according to KenPom – and that doesn’t even include leading scorer Ace Glass, who knocks down about 37%. If the Cougars have a strong shooting performance at home on Saturday, it will be tough for the Bears to keep up.

CBB Best Bet: Duke Blue Devils -8.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -10. 

Duke heads back to Madison Square Garden for the second time this season, this time to play a different Big 12 opponent in the Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Blue Devils enter this contest with a perfect 11-0 SU record and solid 7-4 ATS record. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 8-3 SU but just 3-7-1 ATS. Furthermore, the Red Raiders will be short-handed in the front court, expecting to be without Luke Bamgboye. His absence will be felt, as he is rated as the best defender on the team per EvanMiya due to his elite shot-blocking ability. His biggest issue is his availability; this would be his 5th missed game. As we saw in Texas Tech’s loss to Arkansas last weekend, his absence means JT Toppin may play the entire game, while Texas Tech’s rotation will be extremely thin aand the Red Raiders will be at a size disadvantage against Duke’s front court. 

Duke loves to operate around the rim in its high-low and post-up actions, and while Texas Tech doesn’t allow much activity around the rim, I have a hard time seeing the Red Raiders holding up defensively in the paint for 40 minutes against Cameron Boozer and Patrick Ngongba without Bamgboye. The Red Raiders already aren’t very efficient in those situations when their opponents do get the ball around the rim, sitting in the 40th percentile or worse against both high-low and post-up sets per Hoop-Exporer. On the other end of the floor, Boozer and Ngongba are 2 of the 4 top-rated defenders in the country per EvanMiya. Against those two, Toppin may not be his normal self.