Saturday’s college hoops card has it all. Not only will we be treated to multiple late-season, non-conference games, but we will also be able to enjoy 4 ranked matchups – headlined by a top-10 bout between Kansas and Iowa State at Hilton Coliseum. That’s not where the excitement ends, though. Bubble watch is in full effect for teams like Ohio State and UCLA, who both have a chance to bolster their resumes against ranked opponents, while mid-major conference races continue with big matchups like Navy vs Colgate in the Patriot League, North Dakota State vs North Dakota in the Summit League and Yale vs Harvard in the Ivy League.
Ahead of yet another massive day of hoops, it’s time to get into my college basketball best bets for Saturday’s 132-game card with odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook. I’ll break down the picks for you here, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest games every day from now through the NCAA Tournament.
CBB best bet: St. John’s Red Storm -6.5 over Providence Friars (-110)
Some would say betting against Providence at home is a fool’s errand, but I love the Johnnies in this matchup, and a lot of it has to do with how the first game between these teams played out. When Providence went to St. John’s on January 3rd, the Johnnies jumped out to an early 15-2 lead and took a 7-point advantage into halftime, but it was the Friars who went on a 29-16 run to end the game and ultimately win 77-71. In that game, St. John’s made fewer than 33% of their two-point attempts and just 7 of their 31 three-point attempts. Furthermore, the Johnnies pulled down 25 offensive rebounds and shot 37 free throws – but they made only 24 of them (65%).
Despite the final score, St. John’s had a massive shot-volume edge in that game and should have won comfortably. That obviously didn’t happen, but the Johnnies should be in position to find much better success offensively this time around. Providence currently is outside the top 200 in defensive momentum per Haslametrics despite not having played a top-50 offense since losing to Villanova 87-73 on January 30th. Moreover, St. John’s continues to dominate the glass, sitting 16th nationally and 3rd in the Big East in offensive rebounding rate, while Providence hasn’t shown an ability to consistently limit opponents in that area – ranking 209th in offensive rebounding rate allowed and sitting just 2-8 SU against opponents who are top-100 in that department.
Road favorites seeking revenge over an opponent that beat them at home earlier in the season are 17-7 ATS this year, including 7-3 over the last 10 games. Look for that trend to continue in what should be a much better offensive showing for the Red Storm this time around.
Check out our full St. John’s vs Providence prediction
CBB best bet: Marquette Golden Eagles +2.5 over Xavier Musketeers (-110)
Staying in the Big East, I’m looking for Marquette to continue their resurgence in Cincinnati on Saturday. This Golden Eagles squad is 9th nationally in momentum (Haslametrics), having surpassed offensive expectations in 7 of their last 9 games. In their last 5 contests, Marquette is in the 94th percentile in effective field goal percentage (58.3%). On the other end, the Eagles have outperformed expectations in 3 of their last 4, and their overall improvement has led to 4 straight covers. Meanwhile, Xavier is 256th in overall momentum, having underperformed defensive expectations in 5 of their last 6 while sitting in the 22nd percentile in defensive rating over their last 5 games (CBBAnalytics). It hasn’t been much better on the offensive end, where they are in the 11th percentile in that span.
Marquette’s improvement offensively is spearheaded by their ability to generate points off turnovers, continued ability to convert in the paint and their recent improvement from the perimeter. Over their last 5 games, the Golden Eagles have averaged almost 17 points off turnovers per game thanks to a steal rate that ranks in the 97th percentile, and they sit in the 80th percentile in paint points per game – all while shooting 59% from two-point range and 38% from deep. That’s a well-rounded offensive profile if you ask me. Let’s not forget, Marquette beat this Xavier squad once already despite scoring just 0.93 points per possession on 49% from two-point range and 23% beyond the arc. I expect both of those numbers to improve this time around against a Xavier team that is 10th in the Big East in effective field goal percentage allowed and in just the 10th percentile nationally in defensive rebounding rate over its last 5 games.
CBB best bet: Santa Clara Broncos +4.5 over Gonzaga Bulldogs (-110)
Santa Clara has not been listed as an underdog very often this year, but they’re 3-0 ATS when catching points, and I like that trend to continue late on Saturday night. In the first meeting between these teams, Graham Ike dominated the paint and carried Gonzaga to an 89-77 win at home. However, the Zags turned it over 13 times and gave up 13 offensive rebounds, which proves they were mortal in that game. In fact, the Broncos held an 8-point lead late in the first half before Gonzaga really stepped on the gas.
While he didn’t contribute to the level of Ike, Braden Huff was a big part of that win, scoring 12 points on 6-of-9 from the field with 6 boards, and Gonzaga will likely miss him in this matchup against a Santa Clara team that is excellent on the glass. The Zags could miss him offensively too, as it’s no coincidence they have failed to surpass 90 points since he went down after crossing that threshold 11 times prior.
It’s the defensive side that worries me the most for Gonzaga. They are 299th in defensive momentum and have massively underperformed defensive expectations in their last 2 road games – 1 of those being a loss at #195 Portland (12-15). Meanwhile, the Broncos have the best adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage in the West Coast Conference, and they are in the 98th percentage in offensive rating over their last 5 games – knocking down 58.4% of two-point attempts and 37.5% of three-point attempts over that span. With a half-game in hand at the top of the WCC standings, Santa Clara knows a revenge win over Gonzaga would go a long way in securing the top seed going into the conference tournament. The Zags have been far from perfect away from home of late, and this Broncos team is clicking on all cylinders right now – especially at home.
We have a pick on the total in our Gonzaga vs Santa Clara prediction
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
