Saturdays are always a big day during the college basketball season, but this Saturday is especially massive. Three ranked matchups headline the day, but two of them are not like the others, as #4 Arizona vs #2 Houston and #1 Michigan vs #3 Duke could be considered potential Final Four previews. Meanwhile, #6 Iowa State vs #23 BYU rounds out ESPN’s day-long hoops marathon, and as many as 14 other ranked teams are in action. Elsewhere, a Big South matchup between Winthrop and High Point, a Sun Belt battle between Troy and South Alabama and a couple of Big West showdowns in UC Santa Barbara vs Hawai’i and UC San Diego vs UC Irvine headline the mid-major slate.
Ahead of an extraordinary day of hoops, it’s time to get into my favorite college basketball bets on Saturday. Let’s dive into the analysis, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for additional tips and analysis on all of the biggest games every day through the NCAA Tournament.
CBB best bet: Kansas State Wildcats +14.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +12.
This is a plug-your-nose play, and while the Ewing Theory may be in effect here for Texas Tech, it’s hard to lay double digits with this squad without JT Toppin. The Red Raider star forward is out for the remainder of the season with a torn ACL, which is crippling to a Texas Tech team that is already devoid of depth and ranks 360th in bench minutes while averaging just 6 bench points per game over their last 5. Toppin dominated the paint on both ends of the floor, and without him, Tech will have to rely even more on the perimeter shooting of Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell – which seemingly plays into the strengths of this Kansas State defense.
The Wildcats have left plenty to be desired this year, but they looked rejuvenated following the firing of their coach Jerome Tang, especially on the defensive end. They held Baylor to 0.91 points per possession and just 3-of-24 from the perimeter, which continued their trend of playing great perimeter defense in conference play. In fact, the Wildcats are top-5 in the Big 12 in three-point rate allowed and opposing three point percentage, which will be key against what will now be a perimeter-oriented Texas Tech offense. Not to mention, the Wildcats covered their last 4 on the road.
CBB best bet: Michigan Wolverines ML over Duke Blue Devils (-142)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -160.
College hoops fans are in for a treat on Saturday evening when Michigan and Duke meet in a rare, late-February non-conference showdown in Washington DC. Both teams come into this contest off convincing wins and are threats to beat anyone on any given night. However, despite Duke seemingly matching up well with Michigan on paper due to their strong front court, I’m not convinced the Blue Devils have enough to beat the Wolverines in this particular matchup.
Duke has played with its food late in their biggest games, as the Blue Devils let leads slip away in losses to Texas Tech and North Carolina and a near-loss at home against Florida – which resulted in a 1-point win despite Duke holding a 9-point lead late in the second half. Moreover, I worry about Duke’s offensive ceiling against this stout Michigan defense that rates as the best and most efficient unit in the country.
The Blue Devils excel offensively in the paint playing through freshman star Cam Boozer, ranking in the 94th percentile nationally in both rim rate allowed and rim-attempt field goal percentage over their last 10 games. If Boozer and the Devils can’t find clean looks on those paint touches, they love to kick out to the corners, which tends to work with their stable of great shooters – as shown by their 89th-percentile grade in corner-three shot rate over that same 10 game stretch. That being said, neither the rim looks nor the corner looks are likely to be available throughout this game against the Wolverines, as Michigan is in the 97th percentile in opposing rim rate and 93rd percentile in opposing corner-three rate over their last 10 games. That’s not just a recent trend, either. The Wolverines are holding opponents under 60% on their rim looks and under 30% from the corner on the season as a whole.
On the other end, Duke has similar success shutting down action at the rim, but this Michigan offense is more balanced than Duke’s. Not to mention, the Blue Devil defense regresses in games played away from Cameron Indoor, while Michigan’s does not. In fact, Michigan is 1st nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, opposing effective field goal percentage and block rate in games played on the road or at a neutral venue, which is part of the reason why this team is 10-0 in Quad 1 games and 5-0 in Quad 1A games.
Get our full Michigan vs Duke 5-star prediction
CBB best bet: Iowa State -2.5 over BYU Cougars (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -3.5.
Situationally, this is a tough spot for Iowa State. The Cyclones are off back-to-back home wins over Kansas and Houston, and now they have to travel west into altitude to play the BYU Cougars, who are tough to beat in the Marriott Center. Typically, this would be a buy spot on the home team, but I can’t get there with this version of BYU. Not only are the Cougars without Richie Saunders for the remainder of the season, but this team has been one of the nation’s worst defensively over their last 5 games – sitting in the 10th percentile in defensive rating and 4th percentile in forced turnover rate (CBBAnalytics) over that span. That poor recent defensive form is worrisome against an Iowa State offense that leads the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage and ranks top-15 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency. This team can score from all 3 levels, and there isn’t a massive dropoff in their offensive production away from home, as their 54.8% road effective field goal percentage and 79.1 points per road game are top-50 nationally.
If BYU fails to consistently limit Iowa State offensively, they’re going to have to rely on AJ Dybantsa and Robert Wright to carry them in the scoring department to remain competitive, which is a tough ask against an Iowa State defense composed of multiple elite on-ball defenders that shuts down rim action and limits transition opportunities as well as anyone in the country. Without Saunders to stretch the floor, that could be detrimental to a consistent offensive showing for the Cougars. Dybansta will likely attract Joshua Jefferson for a majority of the game, who rates as the 4th-best defender in the Big 12 and just outside the top 10 nationally. Meanwhile, Wright will have to deal with the two-headed monster of Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure in the back court, who are 2 of the top 16 defenders in the Big 12 per EvanMiya.
BYU has shown their morality at home in losses to Arizona and Houston, and Iowa State is on the same level as those teams. Given BYU’s repeated poor showings against top teams and the absence of Saunders, I could only go with the Cyclones in Provo on Saturday.
Don’t forget to find all of our NCAAB best bets every day; our experts are 13-7 on those 5-star picks this season!
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