It’s the final full Saturday of college basketball and the penultimate Saturday of the regular season, so make sure you get to your favorite viewing spot and enjoy the action that will stretch from noon ET to well past midnight. We will be treated to not 1, not 2, not 3, but 5 ranked matchups on Saturday, starting with #11 Virginia vs #1 Duke at noon ET, followed by #14 Kansas vs #2 Arizona and #16 Texas Tech vs #4 Iowa State at 4:00 pm, #17 Alabama vs #22 Tennessee at 6:00 pm and #20 Arkansas vs #7 Florida at 8:30 pm. That doesn’t even include the other 10 ranked teams in action or all the mid-major madness.
With March quite literally around the corner, Saturday figures to be another fantastic day of hoops. Ahead of the loaded slate, it’s time to get into my best college basketball bets of the day, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for more tips and analysis on all of the biggest games Saturday and beyond.
CBB best bet: Minnesota Golden Gophers 1H ML over UCLA Bruins (-115)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -120.
UCLA’s home-road dichotomy is very interesting, and if you follow the sport at all, you know how outspoken Bruins coach Mick Cronin is about their frequent travel out to the central and eastern time zones. UCLA is a completely different team when they travel across the country, as they are 1-5 SU and ATS in those games with an average margin of defeat in the double digits. Granted, the 5 losses were against teams that rate better than Minnesota, but this Golden Gopher squad has been playing well of late – outside of a home loss to Maryland in a hangover spot after upsetting Michigan State at home on February 4th. Even without Jaylen Crocker-Johnson, Minnesota went toe-to-toe with Michigan in Ann Arbor, beat Oregon in Eugene and pounded Rutgers by 19 last Saturday.
I worry about Minnesota’s ability to finish games, but I like the Golden Gophers in the first 20 minutes of this game, as they’ve been a good first-half team in conference. In fact, they have been tied or led at halftime in 7 of their 8 conference home games, which includes matchups against Indiana, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan State. They’ve even gone into the intermission tied or leading in Champaign and Madison.
As far as the on-court matchup goes, Niko Medved’s defense is excellent at taking away attempts at the rim and limiting transition opportunities. The Gophers give up a healthy amount of threes, but the Bruins are 260th in effective field goal percentage on the road, making fewer than 33% of their attempts beyond the arc in those games. On the other end of the floor, UCLA also yields a high number of threes, which is not ideal against a Minnesota offense that is 31st in home three-point rate and connects on 36.5% of those attempts. In their last 3 home games, they’ve knocked down 39 threes combined. With the nation’s best assist rate thanks to Langston Reynolds and Isaac Asuma and a couple of knock-down shooters in Cade Tyson and Bobby Durkin, look for the Golden Gophers to do enough to continue their hot first-half play against a UCLA team that has not travelled well out of their time zone.
CBB best bet: Clemson Tigers +1.5 over Louisville Cardinals (-108)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to pk.
The Tigers are in a funk right now, dropping 4 straight while shooting poorly from distance in each of those losses. However, they have had a full week to rest, reset and prepare for the Louisville Cardinals, who come to upstate South Carolina off a loss at North Carolina and winless on the road against top-50 teams per KenPom’s rankings. In the loss to the Heels, the Cards gave up 1.16 points per possession to a team that was without its best player, and in their road game prior to that, SMU tallied 1.24 points per possession. Clemson should find some success against this defense, as the Cardinals are beatable in ball screens and post-ups – areas in which the Tigers excel. Furthermore, Louisville has allowed opponents to connect on more than 36% of perimeter attempts on the road.
Defensively, this Clemson squad is known for its ability to prevent transition opportunities, which is key against an uptempo Louisville offense. Assuming the Tigers limit the Cardinals on the break, there will be a ton of added pressure on Louisville’s abundance of three-point attempts. However, the Cards make only 33% of their perimeter attempts on the road, while Clemson holds opponents to 27.5% at home. Louisville has shown a tendency to struggle against strong defensive teams that prevent transition opportunities. Sitting 18th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 361st in average possession length allowed, Clemson is one of those teams.
CBB best bet: Texas Longhorns vs Texas A&M Aggies Over 161.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 164.
When these teams met in mid-January, the total closed around 165 points and the game stayed well under that in a 74-70 Texas A&M win in Austin. The Longhorns shot well under their season averages in the loss, connecting on just 50% of their two-point attempts and fewer than 30% of their three-point attempts. This time around, I expect the Longhorns to have a better offensive showing, even if they are playing on the road. This team is typically very efficient in transition, where the Aggies struggle to defend with any sort of success per their 36th-percentile grade via Hoop-Explorer. Furthermore, Texas is one of the nation’s hottest teams of late, sitting 6th in BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency and 29th in three-point percentage (40%) since February 1st. On the road, the Longhorns are top-5 in offensive efficiency and top-40 in effective field goal percentage.
The Longhorns excel at creating second-chance opportunities and getting to the free throw line, which have been clear weaknesses for Texas A&M this month – ranking 342nd in opposing offensive rebounding rate and 269th in free throw rate allowed. At home, the Aggies are outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and 279th in effective field goal percentage allowed.
With the venue change to Reed Arena, I expect Texas A&M to dictate the tempo more than they did in Austin, which means there should be plenty of possessions in this one. In fact, the Aggies have the 2nd-highest adjusted tempo in the country when playing at home according to BartTorvik. Texas should oblige, as their games against the top 75 teams in tempo have trended into the 160s and beyond more often than not. That has to do in large part with their leaky defense, as the Longhorns are outside the top 140 in efficiency and outside the top 280 in effective field goal percentage allowed on the road.
Overs are 7-3 in Texas’ last 10, 6-1 on the road in conference play and 10-1 after an ATS loss this year. Meanwhile, Texas A&M overs are 3-1 in their last 4 at home against conference opponents.
Check out our full Texas vs Texas A&M prediction
CBB player prop: Boogie Fland (UF) Over 1.5 Threes vs Arkansas Razorbacks (+235
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +200.
This number jumped off the page as soon as I saw it. I realize Fland has been dreadful from range this year, but he was 3-of-6 from distance at Ole Miss and 2-of-3 at Texas in his last 2 outings, which should provide him with some confidence ahead of this matchup with Arkansas. That added confidence combines nicely with an expected motivation to show out against his former team. I’m banking on Fland knowing where to be to get open looks against a defensive scheme he’s familiar with despite the poor seasonlong numbers. For what it’s worth, the Razorbacks are better defensively in the front court than they are in the back court.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
