Saturday is sure to provide an incredible day of college basketball, with over 150 Division 1 games on tap from noon ET until well past midnight out on the island of Hawai’i. As many as 21 ranked teams will be in action, and there are 3 highly-anticipated ranked matchups that headline the day. Duke will visit Chapel Hill for the first of 2 meetings against rival North Carolina, while Illinois looks to extend their winning streak in East Lansing against Michigan State and BYU hopes to put an end to their losing streak with a victory over a strong Houston program at home. At the mid-major level, the MAC-Sun Belt Challenge will provide some non-conference action, including matchups like Bowling Green vs Arkansas State, Miami (OH) vs Marshall and Akron vs Troy, among others.
Ahead of yet another stacked day of hoops, I’m back with 3 more college basketball best bets for Saturday’s card. Let’s get into the breakdown, while you can also find our NCAAB predictions for more tips and analysis on all of the biggest college basketball games every day through the NCAA Tournament.
CBB best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks -5.5 over Mississippi State Bulldogs (-110)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.
Mississippi State doesn’t find much success offensively outside of Josh Hubbard and Jayden Epps, who are the only 2 players on the roster that average more than 9 points per game. Despite their high usage rates, Hubbard and Epps can be horribly inefficient, and the Bulldogs suffer tremendously when that happens – failing to keep up with a vast majority of the best offenses on its schedule. The results bear that out, as Mississippi State has lost by double digits to 5 of the 7 top-40 offenses they have faced to and has failed to score more than 70 points in 4 of their last 7 games.
Coming into this game ranking as a top-10 team in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-25 in effective field goal percentage, Arkansas has one of the best offenses in the country. Led by Darius Acuff’s 20.3 points per game and 41% shooting from distance, the Hogs have 4 players that average double figures and 2 others that average more than 8 points per game. Already, you can see this team is more balanced than its counterpart. The Razorbacks can fill it up from all 3 levels, but they do most of their damage in transition and in the paint – where the Bulldogs lack premier size and shot-blocking prowess opposite the likes of Trevon Brazile, Nick Pringle and Malique Ewin.
Aside from a couple head-scratching performances against non-conference opponents very early in the season, Arkansas hasn’t had much issue putting away teams that sit outside of the top 50 in KenPom’s offensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Hogs have been incredible off losses this year, though all those games were at home. Even still, this Arkansas squad has played in more hostile environments than Humphrey Coliseum, so I don’t expect the Razorbacks to be intimidated by playing this game on the road. After all, taking care of business against a conference bottom feeder is necessary in the race for a top-4 spot in the standings and a double-bye in the SEC Tournament.
CBB best bet: Auburn Tigers ML over Alabama Crimson Tide (-140)
Odds available at Bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -150 or -2.5.
I anticipate this will be one of the more popular bets of the day, but I am still siding with the Tigers at home in the Jungle against their bitter rivals in Alabama. This line opened with a slightly more affordable price on Auburn as -1.5 favorites, but they were immediately bought up in the market to -2.5. However, with what I view as an affordable money line still available, that’s the way I’m going to go.
It’s hard to argue Auburn’s success at home at Neville Arena. Dating back to the start of the 2023-2024 season, the Tigers have lost just 4 games in front of their home fans – one of those games being an overtime loss to the Tide in the regular season finale last year. This time around, I don’t see Alabama having that same success in this hostile environment. The Tide have regressed in a major way defensively, dropping from a top-30 mark in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency down outside the top 70 this season. They currently sit in the bottom half of the conference in defensive efficiency, put conference opponents on the free throw line at the 4th-highest rate in the league and force turnovers at the lowest rate in the SEC – which is not a recipe for success against an Auburn offense that gets to the line at the 2nd-highest rate nationally. Not to mention, the Tide tend to give up more shots at the rim than the average Division 1 team, while their block rate over the last 5 games sits in just the 36th percentile nationally – even with the polarizing return of Charles Bediako. That could be disastrous against an Auburn offense that is one of the nation’s best in rim attacks according to Hoop-Explorer.
To tie a bow on this, Auburn has not played since Saturday, so the Tigers have had a full week to rest and prepare for their arch-rivals. Meanwhile, the Tide had to battle down to the wire at home against Texas A&M on Wednesday. All signs point to Auburn.
Read our Alabama vs Auburn prediction for this rivalry showdown
CBB best bet: Houston Cougars vs BYU Cougars Ov149.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 150.5.
Houston is known for their rugged defense under Kelvin Sampson, which has historically produced low-scoring games in tandem with an extremely slow-paced offense. However, this year is a little different for the Cougars, as they’re playing faster offensively than they have at any point since 2019. Along with that slight uptick in pace, Houston has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, sitting 8th nationally and 1st in the Big 12 in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, and their guard play has been the catalyst for that success. Supplementing their efficiency is their elite offensive rebounding rate and their 19.8 points scored off turnovers per game, providing the Cougars with an above-average offensive floor – especially against a BYU squad that has struggled with turnovers and defensive consistency in conference play.
With the Big 12’s lowest average possession length and 2nd-fastest adjusted tempo, BYU wants to push the ball up and down the floor. The Cougars also love to shoot from distance, and while their perimeter consistency comes in waves, that is exactly the way to beat this Houston defense – which is outside the top-290 in three-point rate allowed. Richie Saunders and Rob Wright can certainly take advantage of open perimeter attempts, and AJ Dybantsa showed us he’s capable of it as well with his 5-for-8 result from range at Oklahoma State on Wednesday.
Both of these defenses foul a healthy amount, and that aggression should turn into an ample amount of free throws at the Marriott Center on Saturday night, which only helps over bettors. Expecting above-average pace, a barrage of three-point shots and repeated trips to the free throw line, the over stands out in this battle of the Cougars.
Check out our full Houston vs BYU prediction for this late-night, Big 12 battle
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