Best College Basketball Bets Today: Expert NCAAB Picks for Saturday, January 10

You’re going to get as much college basketball as you can handle on Saturday, as close to 150 Division 1 matchups are on tap from noon ET until well past midnight out on the island. While SMU vs Duke is the only ranked matchup on the card, there are high-profile games throughout the day, with as many as 9 ranked teams playing on the road against unranked opponents. 

Ahead of an absolutely massive day of hoops and looking to add to my 6-2 run since last Saturday, it’s time to talk about some college basketball best bets. Here are my favorite picks of the day, and make sure you check out our NCAAB predictions for more picks in the biggest games for the rest of the season and through the NCAA Tournament. 

CBB Best Bet: Houston Cougars -3 over Baylor Bears (-110)

Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.

Let’s start Saturday’s action by going back to the well and playing against Baylor with this nasty Houston defense. Earlier this week, we played on Iowa State to cover at Baylor, and despite a horrible start offensively, the Cyclones ended up winning by double digits. The Bears scored only 0.87 points per possession on 40% shooting from inside the arc and just 18.5% beyond it, and the Cyclones were effectively able to keep them out of transition – which is something the Cougars can absolutely do as well. Baylor is one of the most transition-reliant teams in the country, but that’s going to be hard to come by against Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars. They limit transition opportunities as well as nearly any team in the country, and they are in the 98th percentile in efficiency when defending in transition according to Hoop-Explorer. 

That defensive excellence isn’t just in transition, it’s everywhere. The Cougars force turnovers at a top 5 rate, are top-25 in effective field goal percentage allowed, and won’t give up easy mid-range looks – which is exactly where Baylor wants to operate outside of transition. I struggle to see a path to success for the Bears here.

CBB: Purdue Boilermakers -21.5 over Penn State Nittany Lions (-105)

Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -23

Penn State had an awesome showing at home against Michigan on Tuesday, nearly upsetting the Wolverines but ultimately falling short 74-72. That came on the heels of a 73-65 loss to Illinois last Saturday, so this will be the third straight top-10 opponent the Nittany Lions see per KenPom’s rankings. With this being the first true road game of the bunch and just their third of the season, I’m pessimistic about the Nittany Lions’ chances on the road in West Lafayette. 

The Nittany Lions aren’t exactly world beaters offensively. They’re outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage despite playing a defensive strength of schedule that ranks 195th, and they are 16th out of 18 in the Big Ten in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric through 4 conference games. Going one step further, Bart Torvik has the Nittany Lions at 123rd in effective field goal percentage in road and neutral-site games, and they have to generate most of their offense around the rim due to their shooting inconsistencies – which simply isn’t happening against this Purdue defense. The Boilermakers are one of the best rim-denying teams in the country, ranking in the top 5 nationally in near-proximity rate allowed while giving up shots within 4.5 feet of the rim about 9% less than the Division 1 average.  

On the other end of the floor, it’s even bleaker for Penn State. The Nittany Lions are 303rd in opposing effective field goal percentage, and that number drops to 328th when they play on the road or at a neutral-site venue. They are particularly inefficient against opposing attack-and-kick sets and rolling big men out of ball screens, which is problematic against the Purdue offense led by point guard maestro Braden Smith and a stable of excellent big men that are highly-effective sets. Coming off an emotional loss to Michigan, I’m expecting Penn State to get worked by Purdue. 

CBB Best Bet: Arkansas Razorbacks vs Auburn Tigers Over 171.5 (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to 172.5.

This SEC showdown has all the makings of a barnburner when Arkansas visits the Jungle in Auburn on Saturday. The Razorbacks and the Tigers have a couple of the best offenses in the country, both averaging 87 points or more per game while ranking in the top 25 in that aspect. Moreover, they mutually rank in the top-15 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric despite playing fairly difficult schedules to this point, and they also mutually reside in the 87th percentile in percentage of points on fast breaks over their last 5 games. Considering Arkansas plays at an electrifying pace (top-25 in adjusted tempo), there should be plenty of possessions to go around here. Don’t expect either team to meet much resistance, as both Auburn and Arkansas are in the 35th percentile or worse in their last 5 games, and they both reside outside the top 100 in effective field goal percentage allowed against top-50 teams.