Over 140 Division 1 college basketball games will be played on Saturday and almost every ranked team will be in action, so get to your favorite spot on the couch and get ready for a full day of hoops. Three ranked-on-ranked matchups in Florida vs. Vanderbilt, Arkansas vs. Georgia and BYU vs. Texas Tech headline the day, but like I said, almost every ranked team will play on Saturday – so there are plenty of good games to watch and bet.
Going through 140+ games is daunting, so I’ll save you some time. Here are my favorite college basketball bets for Saturday’s massive card, and you can check out our NCAAB predictions for more picks on all the biggest games of the day.
CBB best bet: Buffalo Bulls vs Miami (OH) RedHawks Over 159.5
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to 161.5.
Undefeated Miami (OH) has one of the best offenses in the country, sitting 21st nationally in points per game at 87.1 and 3rd nationally in effective field goal percentage at 59.9%. At home, the RedHawks average 90 points per game, using a mix of their shooting efficiency and pace to light up the scoreboard. In fact, Miami (OH) is 46th in adjusted tempo and 52nd in average possession length (KenPom) over the course of the entire season, and they are top-3 in the MAC in those metrics as well.
The RedHawks score mostly through their transition opportunities, various rim attacks with and without the ball, and driving kick-outs for open jumpers, but they also incorporate their big men through pick-and-pop and post-up sets. I don’t expect their flow to be disrupted against this Buffalo defense, as the Bulls are far below average defensively against pretty much every one of those plays while ranking 232nd in effective field percentage allowed and 306th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. They also give up plenty of open perimeter looks, sitting 312th in three-point rate allowed, surrendering 26 shots per game from beyond the arc in their road games. Miami (OH) should eat the Bulls up on this end of the floor.
On the other end of the floor, Miami (OH) is solid, but there are some holes to be found against the RedHawks defense. They aren’t too efficient against transition opportunities, and they give up a ton of shots in the paint and around the rim, which Buffalo’s guards Daniel Freitag and Ryan Sabol should be able to exploit to help buoy the offense – though the Bulls can score in other ways, too. They shoot threes on over 44% of their possessions (top-80), connecting on more than 38% of them (top-20), and they get to the free throw line at a top-10 rate in the country. The Bulls may not play with a ton of pace on paper, but they also haven’t been asked to. Miami (OH) will be the fastest-paced team the Bulls will have played this season, which is great for us considering Buffalo is 9-6 to the over in their games and 2-0 to the over in games with a total of at least 155 points. For what it’s worth, Miami (OH) is 11-4 to the over, including 6-1 at home.
CBB best bet: Michigan Wolverines -18 over Oregon Ducks (-110)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -19.5.
I don’t love that Michigan is facing their 2nd straight road game out on the west coast, but at least the Wolverines have been out there and have adjusted to the Pacific Time. They’ve certainly gone through a lull since their domination of USC back on January 2nd, but they were able to get back in the win column on Wednesday at Washington, 82-72, despite shooting just 21.7% from the three-point line. Winning by double digits when shooting so poorly from the perimeter is usually a good omen, as we know this team can knock down shots.
This is more of a play against Oregon than a play on Michigan, as the Ducks will be without Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle in this game – their 2 most impactful players. Shelstad has been out for a few games now, but Bittle joining him on the sidelines really deteriorates Oregon’s interior defensively and on the glass, which puts Oregon at a disadvantage against the likes of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson, Yaxel Lendeborg and Will Tschetter. Offensively, Bittle is the fulcrum of Oregon’s offense via high-low, pick-and-pops, post-ups, and inside-out sets, and without Shelstad, I have a hard time seeing the Ducks finding consistent offense against a Michigan defense that still sits 1st nationally in effective field goal percentage and adjusted efficiency despite the Wolverines’ recent lull. With Bittle, Oregon was already 17th in the Big Ten in turnover rate and dead last in free throw percentage. Without their go-to scoring option and bonafide shot-blocker, Oregon may have no answer for Michigan’s big men on either end of the floor.
CBB best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks ML over Georgia Bulldogs (+125)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -110.
There’s no denying Georgia’s strong start to the season, but the Bulldogs have fallen back to earth a little bit in conference play, which is a trend we saw with them last year. This team might be better than last year, but I am not a buyer of them laying points against a very talented Arkansas squad – even at home. Against conference opponents, Georgia is 14th out of 16 SEC teams in effective field goal percentage, knocking down fewer than 33% of perimeter shots and right around 50% of two-point attempts. The Bulldogs haven’t been much better on the defensive end in their league games either, as they sit 11th in opposing two-point percentage, 13th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 15th in offensive rebounding rate allowed.
Arkansas can take advantage of Georgia’s poor interior defense and rebounding. The Razorbacks are top-30 in potential points off second-chance opportunities and second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics), and they are highly efficient around the rim – where Georgia has struggled most against top-100 teams. The Bulldogs can also be exposed in the mid-range, which is where Darius Acuff Jr. and Meleek Thomas thrive for Arkansas.
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