Saturdays are always loaded during the college basketball season, and this week is no different. Three ranked matchups headline the day – North Carolina vs Virginia, Houston vs Texas Tech, Illinois vs Purdue – but as many as 16 other ranked teams will be in action as long as this massive winter storm across the United States doesn’t cause anymore scheduling chaos.
With so many college hoops games ahead, let’s not waste any time. Here are my college basketball best bets for Saturday’s card, while we have NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest games of the day and beyond.
CBB best bet: Arizona Wildcats -17.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -19.5.
I’ve been on the Arizona train quite a bit recently, and I don’t see a reason to jump off just yet. This Wildcats squad is off to a perfect 19-0 start, and they’ve been crushing teams all season long – especially at home. With the exception of their 7-point win over in-state rival Arizona State, Arizona has beaten every team by at least 20 points within the friendly confines of the McKale Center. WVU may have beaten that very Arizona State squad in Tempe on Wednesday, but this is the 2nd leg of back-to-back road games for the Mountaineers, which is less than ideal considering the Wildcats were at home on Wednesday when they crushed Cincinnati 77-51.
Buying Arizona at this price is buying high, but I have a hard time finding a path to success for West Virginia. This Mountaineers squad lacks much size, which is detrimental against the massively-talented Arizona front court consisting of Koa Peat, Tobe Awaka and Motiejus Krivas. Thanks to that 3-headed monster in the paint, the Wildcats are 3rd nationally in offensive rebounding rate, as well as 3rd in the Big 12. They also are the catalyst for Arizona’s top-ranked two-point offense in conference play, as the Wildcats are also in the 100th percentile in paint points per game (CBB Analytics). Not to mention the impact they make on the defensive end, challenging all attempts at the rim and limiting opponents to minimal second-chance opportunities – as shown by their top-25 marks in second-chance points and second-chance conversion rate allowed.
West Virginia’s slow, methodical pace is their only hope to limit Arizona’s offense, as that style of play limits possessions throughout the game, but the Wildcats can win in a variety of ways. In my opinion, WVU’s win over Arizona State was an anomaly, as this group averages fewer than 68 points per road game on a 50% effective field goal percentage. The Mountaineers have also struggled mightily on the road against the Big 12’s top teams thus far, losing by 21 at Iowa State and by 29 at Houston.
CBB best bet: TCU Horned Frogs +4 over Baylor Bears (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.
The Horned Frogs and the Bears already met once this year already in Fort Worth, and it was TCU that came away with the 69-63 victory. Usually, I like to play on the team that lost the first matchup in the return game, especially when they are on their home floor, but there hasn’t been much to like about this Baylor squad in conference play. The Bears are just 1-5 SU and ATS against Big 12 opponents, so why would I lay any amount of points with this team, let alone more than one possession? Also, where is this team’s headspace at after 4 double-digit losses in their last 5 outings – 3 of which came at home?
At 2-4 in conference, TCU is not much better against Big 12 foes, but the Horned Frogs are excellent in limiting transition opportunities and shots at the rim, where Baylor wants to initiate their offense. The Horned Frogs are also highly-efficient against perimeter cuts, which is where Cameron Carr, Michael Rataj and Obi Agbim have been able to find easy buckets. On the other end of the floor, I expect TCU to find success in transition, where they are in the 87th percentile in efficiency. Furthermore, David Punch and Xavier Edmonds should be able to convert efficiently through post-ups, as Baylor’s defense is in just the 39th percentile against those sets against top-100 opponents (Hoop-Explorer).
CBB best bet: Kansas Jayhawks -4.5 over Kansas State Wildcats (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -6.5.
It appears we’re going with a strong Big 12 theme in this week’s best-bet article. I am aware of Kansas’ recent struggles in Bramledge Coliseum, but it’s not enough to scare me off the Jayhawks here. While they face their 2nd leg of back-to-back road games, I like Kansas to assert their dominance over their in-state rivals. The Wildcats have really struggled in conference play, sitting at just 1-5 SU against Big 12 foes, and it’s not going to get any easier for them without leading scorer Abdi Bashir – who will be out for the foreseeable future. Without him, I expect K-State’s offensive numbers to regress even further from their 13th-ranked adjusted efficiency and 12th-ranked effective field goal percentage out of 16 Big 12 teams. Of note, the Wildcats could be without Khamari McGriff and Elias Rapieque as well, both of whom were out in the win over Utah on Tuesday.
The Wildcats like to run and attack in transition, but that’s going to be difficult for them against a Kansas defense that is one of the best in the country in transition – especially because they don’t generate many turnovers and struggle to limit offensive rebounds. Kansas isn’t the best rebounding team on paper, but Flory Bidunga and Tre White are excellent on the offensive glass and could cause a lot of problems for a K-State team that is outside the top 330 in points allowed via second-chance opportunities and second-chance conversion rate (Haslametrics). Bidunga should also find plenty of success against the Wildcat front court through his myriad of post-ups and off-ball motions to the rim – areas in which Kansas State has not defended well.
KSU is just 3-9 ATS at home this year, which includes 0-3 ATS in home conference games. In all their Big 12 games combined, the ‘Cats are just 1-5 ATS. If you like K-State here, it’s because of Kansas’ recent struggles in this building, but I believe Kansas’ schematic advantages and Kansas State’s injury issues play a bigger role in the handicap.
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