Best College Basketball Bets Today: Expert NCAAB Picks for Saturday, January 3

With the holiday break behind us, it’s back to regular-scheduled programming in college basketball. Conference play is in full swing across the country, and Saturday is loaded with college hoops action all day, starting as early as 11:00 am ET. Headline matchups include Kentucky vs Alabama, Oklahoma State vs Texas Tech, Tennessee vs Arkansas, Purdue vs Wisconsin, and Florida vs Missouri, but there are plenty of other interesting games across the power conferences and mid-majors throughout the day. 

To get you set for Saturday’s loaded hoops card, I have compiled a few of my favorite bets of the day and will break each of them down for you. Let’s get right into the picks, but don’t forget we have NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college basketball games throughout the season leading into conference tournaments and March Madness. 

CBB Best Bet: St. John’s Red Storm -12.5 over Providence Friars (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -14. 

Kim English has played Rick Pitino close in his time as Providence’s head coach. In fact, the last 4 meetings between Providence and St. John’s have been decided by no more than 3 points. I expect that to change on Saturday, as I haven’t been too impressed with this Providence defense – a unit that is outside the top 150 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. The Friars are particularly porous – and maybe unlucky – on the perimeter, yielding a three-point attempt on over 40 percent of shots (194th), and opponents knock down almost 37.5% of those attempts (322nd). That could spell disaster against JoSon Sanon, Ian Jackson and Oziyah Sellers, all of whom connect on at least 39% of their three-point attempts for the Johnnies. This group doesn’t force turnovers, either, sitting 294th in forced turnover rate. 

St. John’s has a top-30 offense in the country, and that comes against a top-25 strength of schedule with multiple opponents that grade better than Providence defensively. Moreover, the Johnnies are elite in creating second-chance opportunities via offensive rebounds, which is an area of weakness for Providence (300th in opposing offensive rebounds per game). 

The Johnnies got back into rhythm in a 95-83 win over Georgetown on Wednesday and are ready to go for their battle with Providence, which hasn’t played since December 19. Usually extra time and preparation is good for an underdog, but a 2+ week layoff is tough to overcome from a game-conditioning standpoint, especially against a team that can overwhelm opponents in various facets like St. John’s. I see a comfortable win here for the Red Storm.

CBB Best Bet: Auburn Tigers +5.5 over Georgia Bulldogs (-115)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5. 

Maybe I’m falling into one of those proverbial “traps” of which many speak, but this line seems pretty generous considering Georgia hasn’t really played anyone notable outside of Clemson. In fact, Clemson is the only top-50 team the Bulldogs have played to this point, as they are 349th in strength of schedule per KenPom. Meanwhile, Auburn’s strength of schedule ranks top 20, having played Houston, Michigan, St. John’s, NC State and Purdue. Some of those opponents play fast, which should help Auburn in preparation for this road trip to Georgia. 

It’s just very hard for me to trust the analytical profile of Georgia, specifically defensively. Auburn’s guards might get whatever they want off the dribble against a Bulldogs backcourt that is in just the 29th percentile in defending dribble jumpers per Hoop-Explorer. The Bulldogs also haven’t been as good at denying action around the rim as you would expect with such an easy schedule. In fact, they allow shots in the paint and around the rim slightly more than the average Division 1 team. Of course, they’re blocking those shots at a very high rate, but will those same fortunes continue on Saturday when stepping up in class? I’m expecting the likes of Tahaad Pettiford and Keyshawn Hall to be able to create offense consistently in this one. 

CBB Best Bet: Utah State Aggies Team Total Over 84.5 vs San Jose State Spartans (-115)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to 85.5. 

Utah State has one of the strongest home-court advantages in Division 1, and the Aggies typically put on a show in front of their home fans. Their most recent home game was a 100-58 blowout of conference opponent Colorado State right before holiday break, and now they will face another reeling Mountain West defense in San Jose State that has surrendered at least 81 points in 4 straight games and at least 84 in 3 of 4 true road games. The Spartans are 244th in adjusted defensive efficiency, with a rank of 319th in effective field-goal percentage allowed; opponents are finding their way to the rim and knocking down their perimeter attempts against San Jose State with consistency, which doesn’t bode well for the Spartans in Logan on Saturday.

The Aggies average north of 85 points per home game, spearheaded by MJ Collins Jr. and Mason Falslev — who combine for more than 35 points per contest. The biggest concern here is San Jose State’s deliberate pace of play, as the Spartans are 351st in average possession length — which would ultimately limit possessions. However, this defense has a tough time stopping anyone with a lack of rim protection, where Utah State will attack them. Not to mention they are outside the top 225 in offensive rebounds allowed per game, and they have a turnover problem — feeding directly into a strength of Utah State’s defense, which boasts the #1 steal rate in the country. Look for the Aggies to pick pockets and score easily in transition en route to 85+ points.