Just like every week during the college basketball season, Saturday is absolutely loaded with hoops action, with almost 140 Division 1 games spanning from noon ET until after midnight. Headlining the day is a ranked matchup between BYU and Kansas from Allen Fieldhouse at 4:30pm ET on ESPN, while as many as 13 other ranked teams will be in action – 6 of them on the road against unranked opponents.
To get you set for Saturday’s massive college hoops slate, I am back with a 3-pack of best bets, as I hope to improve upon this 7-2 run we’re on. Let’s get into the picks, and don’t forget about our NCAAB predictions for tips and analysis on all of the biggest college basketball games every day as we lead into the postseason.
CBB best bet: Clemson Tigers -11.5 over Pitt Panthers (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -13.
At 2-6 in ACC play, the Pitt Panthers are one of the bottom-feeders in the conference. In fact, their only league wins came over teams that also sit at 2-6, and they only have 2 top-100 wins overall this season – one of them being their OT victory over Wake Forest on Tuesday. It wasn’t pretty by any means, as the Panthers scored just 1.11 points per possession while shooting less than 47% from the field, just 30.6% from beyond the arc and 68% from the free throw line. That’s been their season in a nutshell, as the Panthers are 225th nationally in scoring and 171st in effective field goal percentage. In ACC play, they connect on less than 32% of three-point attempts, shoot under 50% from two-point range and make only 63% of their free throws. They aren’t any better defensively either, sitting 16th in the ACC in adjusted efficiency, as well as dead last in the conference in effective field goal percentage allowed (56.6%).
Boasting the ACC’s most efficient defense and sitting 7-1 in conference play, Clemson is not to be taken lightly. The Tigers are 11th nationally in opposing scoring, yielding fewer than 60 points per game at home. They contest shots at the rim, limit transition opportunities, and prevent second-chance opportunities as well as almost any team in the country, which makes it hard for their opponents to find easy baskets. They’ve also already beaten this Panthers team in Pittsburgh earlier this month on the 2nd leg of back-to-back road games just after New Year’s, covering the -4.5 by the thinnest of margins in the process. In that game, the Tigers converted 71% of their two-point attempts.
That offensive output should be somewhat repeatable on Saturday. Maybe the Tigers won’t shoot over 70% again, but Pitt is dreadful defensively at the rim, as well as against post-ups and rolling big men – which is not a recipe for success against a Clemson offense that plays through its front court with one of the most efficient post-up games in the country. This elite interior game gives Clemson a solid floor offensively in this matchup, which figures to be difficult for Pitt to match given their offensive woes and Clemson’s defensive prowess at home. Not to mention, the Tigers have been idle since last Saturday, while the Panthers had to play to overtime in their mid-week game. This is a large number in what figures to be a low-possession game, but I don’t see a path to success for Pitt’s offense, and their defense can’t be trusted in this matchup.
CBB best bet: UCF Knights 1H +2.5 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.
If you’re part of the “spot” crowd, then you’ve already noticed this massive sandwich spot for Texas Tech. While the Red Raiders benefit from a full week of rest and preparation ahead of their trip to Orlando, they are coming off a massive home win over Houston and they welcome Kansas to Lubbock in 2 days on Big Monday. Meanwhile, UCF played at home on Tuesday, so the Knights don’t have to deal with any sort of travel.
Ultimately, I think Texas Tech prevails with a strong second half, but I envision a slow start in Orlando on Saturday against a UCF team that has been pesky at home – highlighted by a win over Kansas earlier this month in which they took the lead into halftime. They were also strong early when they hosted #1 Arizona, trailing by just 3 at the intermission.
UCF leaves a bit to be desired on both ends of the floor, but there’s enough to like here when it comes to the Knights keeping this game close for the first 20 minutes. UCF rates as the Big 12’s best in offensive rebounding rate allowed, which is a huge attribute when going against JT Toppin. Moreover, the Knights are top-50 in first-half scoring, averaging over 41 points per opening period at home. By no means has Texas Tech been a force defensively this season, considering they rank outside the top 40 in adjusted efficiency (KenPom) and 125th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Those defensive issues have been apparent early in games, as the Red Raiders are 268th in first-half scoring allowed – surrendering 37.4 first-half points per game on the road. Look for the Knights to hang around early.
CBB best bet: Auburn Tigers +5.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-102)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +4.
The Volunteers have had a handful of hard-fought, close games in a row, starting with their 2OT home win over Texas A&M on January 13th. Since then, the Vols lost by 2 at home to Kentucky, battled to a 6-point win at Alabama and followed that up with a 1-point OT win at Georgia on Wednesday. They could be in for yet another tough game on Saturday when they welcome the red-hot Auburn Tigers to town.
This Tennessee defense isn’t what it used to be. After spending the last 5 years in the top 3 of the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency (KenPom), the Vols currently rank 10th in that department, along with 10th in effective field goal percentage allowed. Those deficiencies are evident in the game logs, as they have surrendered at least 80 points in 5 of their 7 conference games thus far. Granted, 2 of those games went to OT, but the point stands, as Tennessee yielded 80+ points just twice last year in league play – 1 of those occurrences being in the SEC Championship against the eventual national champions in Florida. It doesn’t seem to be getting better either, as the Vols have underperformed defensive expectations in 4 of their last 5 games.
Defensive struggles are not ideal against this Auburn team right now. The Tigers have outperformed offensive expectations in 6 of their 8 SEC games, including in 3 consecutive outings. They have the 10th-most efficient offense in the country and are 4th in the SEC in that regard, doing most of their damage through rim attacks, off the dribble, in transition and via second-chance opportunities. Tennessee has shown the ability to effectively limit opponents in transition, but the Vols have suffered from turnover issues, too – sitting dead last in the conference in turnover rate.
A good bit of those turnovers are live, meaning Auburn should have ample opportunities to turn those steals into easy points on the other end. Moreover, the Vols are vulnerable at the rim and off the dribble. Keyshawn Hall, Kevin Overton, Tahaad Pettiford and KeShawn Murphy should thrive in those areas. Lastly, this Auburn squad gets to the line at the highest rate in the SEC, which is important to note against a Tennessee defense that is 12th out of 16 SEC teams in free throw rate allowed. Given Auburn’s offensive success of late, combined with Tennessee’s recent defensive woes, I like the Tigers to keep this one close and have a chance to spring the upset.
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