Best College Basketball Bets Today: Expert NCAAB Picks for Saturday, March 14

Sam Avellone

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email contact@pickswise.com.

College basketball best bet: Florida Gators Team Total Over 84.5 vs Vanderbilt Commodores (-105)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 85.5.

The Florida Gators come into the SEC semifinals off arguably their worst offensive showing of the season, as they were just 3-of-20 from the perimeter, failed to reach an offensive efficiency of 100 for just the 2nd time this year and turned the ball over on 24.6% of possessions against Kentucky – their 3rd-highest turnover rate of the season. That said, the Gators absolutely dominated the offensive glass (18) and earned frequent trips to the free throw line (33) to overcome a poor shooting performance and win the game, which is certainly repeatable against Vanderbilt.

The Gators should have a much better showing offensively on Saturday, as they really match up well against the Commodores defense. In their lone regular season meeting, the Gators had one of their best offensive showings of the year, posting 98 points on nearly a 60% effective field goal percentage while pulling in 13 offensive rebounds and getting to the charity stripe 30 times in Vandy’s Memorial Gymnasium. The ‘Dores simply don’t have an answer for Florida’s elite front court, and that showed, as Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu combined for 54 points and 8 offensive rebounds.

This Vanderbilt team loves to play fast, and Florida has absolutely no issue with that. In fact, the Gators probably prefer it given their top-25 adjusted tempo and top-50 average possession length (KenPom), which pairs nicely with their elite offensive efficiency. That uptempo play style combined with the expected shot-volume edge Florida has via their offensive rebounding and ability to get to the free throw line should provide a comfortable floor for scoring, especially given Vanderbilt’s defensive struggles of late.

Over the last 3 weeks, Vandy sits outside the top 100 in adjusted defensive efficiency and outside the top 180 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The ‘Dores are also 356th in offensive rebounding rate allowed and 322nd in free throw rate allowed in that time, while opponents have hit almost 37% of threes against them since February 21. On top of that, they are pedestrian at best defensively in the paint, yielding an average of 33 points per game in conference play, due to their inability to effectively limit post-ups or cutting bigs – which is obviously a glaring weakness against Chinyelu and Condon. I have a tough time seeing Florida’s offensive struggles continuing on Saturday against this defense.

Read our Vanderbilt vs Florida prediction for this SEC semifinal matchup

College basketball best bet: Dayton Flyers +5.5 over Saint Louis Billikens (-105)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.5.

Dayton’s embarrassing 102-71 loss at Saint Louis at the end of January seemed to be a turning point for the Flyers, as they’ve surged to 8 wins in their 10 games since with those 2 losses coming to VCU. Included in those 8 victories was a revenge win over the Saint Louis in Dayton, where the Flyers held the Billikens to arguably their worst offensive showing of the year. The Bills scored just 0.89 points per possession, made fewer than 25% of their threes and turned the ball over 15 times in the loss.

The Flyers won’t have the magic of University of Dayton Arena behind them in this one, but I still like them to keep this game close and put themselves in great position to win outright and punch their ticket to the NCAA Tournament. One of the big differences in the 2 meetings between these teams was the health of Amael L’Etang. In the first matchup, he was still working his way back from injury and played just 18 minutes, though he was very productive in his limited playing time – dropping 12 points while grabbing 6 boards and tallying 4 stocks (blocks+rebounds). In the 2nd meeting, L’Etang played a full complement of minutes (30) and put up 26 points with 10 rebounds and 6 stocks.

L’Etang’s presence is not only felt on the offensive end, but on the defensive side as well. He is one of the best shot-blockers in the country, and his presence around the rim and on the glass is a major asset against SLU’s Robbie Avilia – who has not played well against this Flyers squad. Those struggles could continue on Saturday, as Avilia is working through a nagging plantar fasciitis injury. He looked fine Friday after being questionable for SLU’s season finale last week, but I am wary of the injury in the 2nd game of a back-to-back. Elsewhere, Dayton has a pair of elite on-ball defenders on the wing in De’Shayne Montgomery and Keonte Jones that should help limit SLU’s perimeter threats in Trey Green and Dion Brown, while Javon Bennett and Jauin Simon are plus defenders in their own right as well.

You could argue that Dayton has been the better team over the last month, and the numbers bear that out, as Dayton is top-70 in Haslametrics’ Momentum while Saint Louis is dead last at 365th. Since February 14, SLU is 112th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 243rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Dayton is in the top 100 offensively and 17th defensively. Moreover, the Flyers have been slightly better from the three-point line in that time, and they have the ability to slow this game down to their pace and limit SLU’s transition offense – which is elite in its own right. Give me Dayton with the points, and don’t be afraid to sprinkle the money line.