Sunday’s college basketball slate is packed with more action than usual this week, which is something I will never complain about. The 25-game card is headlined by not 1 but 2 ranked matchups — the first of which tips off at 1:00 pm ET on ABC between the Alabama Crimson Tide and Florida Gators. Later on FS1, the Illinois Fighting Illini travel to Nebraska to play the Cornhuskers.
With an exciting day of hoops ahead, it’s time to get into my college basketball best bets of the day. Saturday’s 1-2 result was disappointing due to a loss by Clemson on the hook, but we are still 8-4 in our last 12 and hoping to improve on that mark today. Let’s get into it, while you can always find our NCAAB predictions for tips and analysis on all the biggest games every day.
CBB best bet: Purdue Boilermakers Team Total Over 81.5 vs Maryland Terrapins (-116)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 82.5.
Purdue has lost 3 games in a row and will look to get back on track Sunday in College Park. Luckily for the Boilermakers, the Terrapins have been a solid team to get right against. They are just 8-12 overall, including 1-8 in conference play, and there are no signs of improvement on the horizon considering they are coming off losses to Illinois and Michigan State by a combined score of 180-118. The issue for Maryland has been twofold; the Terps cannot score, nor can they get stops with any sort of consistency. That combination of mediocrity – some would argue incompetence – is not ideal against top-tier opponents, which reflects in the results. Maryland is 0-10 SU against teams that are top-75 in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and all but 2 of those opponents scored at least 82 points against the Terps.
Purdue is going to look to Braden Smith to generate points off the dribble or find his reliable big men for easy buckets, whether it be through ball screens, post-ups, inside-outs or high-lows. Fortunately for Purdue, Maryland lacks size in the worst way, and in turn, the Terps are not very good defensively in the paint or around the rim — while they rank 192nd in offensive rebounds allowed per game. Averaging more than 10 offensive boards per game, Purdue is more than capable of taking advantage of that weakness, and the Boilermakers should also benefit from Maryland sending their Big Ten opponents to the line at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Expect a bounce-back performance here from the 2nd-most efficient offense in the country (KenPom).
Read our full Purdue vs Maryland prediction
CBB best bet: Northern Kentucky vs Oakland Over 166.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to 168.5.
These teams met once already this season, back on December 17, and it was Oakland that came away with the 82-77 victory thanks to a 12-7 run over the last 2:22 of the game. This time around, oddsmakers expect Oakland to prevail again, but instead of betting the side, we’re going to look at the total in this one. The first meeting closed with a total of 164.5 points, and as previously mentioned, the game only hit 159 even with 19 points being scored over the final 2 and a half minutes. For Sunday’s game, oddsmakers opened the line in the high 160s. While it’s been bet down slightly, this is a sign that oddsmakers are confident this game will be much higher-scoring than the previous.
It makes sense, as Oakland’s OU Credit Union O’rena is a house of overs against conference opponents. In fact, when Oakland is favored at home against fellow Horizon League opponents, overs are 10-0 in the last 10 games and 25-7 since 2021. The trend is your friend in this instance, as both of these teams play with extreme pace, sitting top-65 in adjusted tempo. In conference play, Northern Kentucky is 1st in adjusted tempo and average possession length (KenPom), while Oakland is 2nd and 3rd in those metrics, respectively. When betting an over, nothing pairs with above-average pace better than below-average defense, and trust me, we have plenty of that in this matchup. Both NKU and Oakland are outside the top 225 in adjusted defensive efficiency and outside the top 300 in effective field goal percentage allowed, which is ideal for us given the fact that both teams are top-3 in the Horizon League in adjusted offensive efficiency. Not to mention, offensive rebounds can be found in abundance against both of these teams, providing us with what should be a few extra easy looks. This total is high for a reason; take the over.
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