The dog days of February continue as we inch closer to March Madness, but Sunday’s abbreviated hoops slate offers some intrigue. Headlining the day is a Big Ten matchup between Indiana and Illinois. The Fighting Illini are the only ranked team in action on Sunday, but there are multiple interesting mid-major matchups to enjoy. USF and FAU will battle it out in an in-state AAC matchup, while Merrimack and Quinnipiac meet in a top-3 matchup in the MAAC and Belmont travels to Murray State for a rivalry game between the 2 top teams in the MVC.
Ahead of a fun Sunday in hoops, I’ve settled on one college basketball best bet that I like more than the rest. Let’s get into the breakdown, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops games every day through the NCAA Tournament.
CBB best bet: Seton Hall Pirates -2.5 over Butler Bulldogs (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -3.
Understanding the nuances of situational angles is key to betting college hoops, especially in the dog days of the season. One of my favorite situational angles is to bet on road favorites seeking to avenge a home loss from earlier in the season in which they were laying points, and that’s exactly what we have on Sunday when Seton Hall travels to Indianapolis to play Butler. Teams in that exact spot are 23-10 ATS this season and 66-45 ATS over the last 3 years.
We’re not just blindly playing the trends in this one, as I’m expecting some regression to the mean from Butler in the return game – even with the Bulldogs playing at home. In that first meeting, Butler shot better than 61% from two-point range and got to the free throw line 41 times, making 33 of them (80.5%). I would argue that offensive output was an anomaly, as Butler has connected on fewer than 50% of their two-point attempts and fewer than 74% of free throws in conference play. Moreover, Butler will be without Azavier Robinson in this game, which is a big loss considering he put up 14 points on 5-of-6 from the field with 5 assists in the first meeting.
Seton Hall is much better defensively inside the arc than they showed in that game, sitting 22nd nationally in opposing two-point percentage (46.5%). The Pirates also dominate the offensive glass, sitting 1st in the Big East in offensive rebounding rate. That success was on display in the first meeting when they secured 21 offensive rebounds compared to Butler’s 5. That rebounding production is repeatable, as Butler is 10th out of 11 Big East teams in offensive rebounding rate allowed.
Same-season rematches have not been kind to Butler this year. The Bulldogs are just 1-3 ATS in these spots, and that 1 cover came by just 1.5 points against UConn in their last outing earlier this week. Meanwhile, Seton Hall is 9-2 ATS in games played away from home. All signs point to the Pirates in this one.
Find our full Seton Hall vs Butler prediction
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