It’s Super Bowl Sunday, but before we get to the big game, we will be treated to an abbreviated college basketball card consisting of 11 games. The action tips off at noon ET with USC vs Penn State and Tulsa vs USF, but a rivalry showdown between Michigan and Ohio State headlines the day.
Ahead of the short and sweet Sunday hoops card, I’ve settled on a college basketball best bet that I like more than the rest. Let’s get into the breakdown, and don’t forget our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops matchups every day through the NCAA Tournament.
CBB best bet: Penn State Nittany Lions 1H +2.5 over USC Trojans (-120)
Odds available at Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Penn State lacks many redeeming qualities this season, sitting at just 1-11 in conference play with the Big Ten’s least efficient defense. However, this is less of a play on Penn State and more of a fade of USC in this specific spot. After traveling across the country for this game, the Trojans will have to take the court at noon ET on Sunday, which means they will be playing on a 9:00 am body clock. Oddsmakers are aware of the travel situation too, as they’ve shaded the full-game line towards Penn State by a couple points.
USC’s first-half production on both ends of the floor dips when they play on the road. At home, they average over 38 points per first half, and they surrender about 32. On the road, the Trojans average fewer than 35 first-half points, while yielding over 36. Meanwhile, Penn State’s best performances have come within the friendly confines of the Bryce Jordan Center, including a near-upset of Michigan in early January. The Nittany Lions average close to 37 points per first half while yielding 35.4, which is about 8 points fewer than they surrender in the opening halves of their road games.
Given the cross-country travel and 9:00 am body clock, betting against USC in this game is the only way I can go – especially considering USC is 16th in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency and turnover rate. However, I admit holding a full-game ticket on a team that has struggled like Penn State isn’t exactly settling. Instead, let’s focus on the opening 20 minutes and look for the Nittany Lions to go into the intermission within a bucket of the Trojans.
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