Conference tournament week continues on Thursday, and the action is really starting to heat up. Top seeds in the ACC, Big East and Big 12 will suit up, while various other tournaments reach the second and even third rounds if you’re the Big Ten. Elsewhere, the MAC will join the fun with a 4-game opening round, meaning all but one conference will be in action Thursday – as the 4-team Ivy League Tournament tips off this weekend. With so much hoops ahead, let’s get right into Thursday’s college basketball best bets, and don’t forget to sign up for our new premium March Madness service for all my picks throughout the NCAA Tournament.
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College basketball best bet: Virginia Cavaliers -5.5 over NC State Wolfpack
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.
The Wolfpack ended the regular season in ugly fashion with 6 defeats in 7 outings, including an overtime loss at #91 Notre Dame and a home loss to #61 Stanford. Are we to forgive and forget just because they managed to beat the #15 team in the ACC by 10 on Wednesday? I don’t think so. Was the win over Pitt even that impressive? NC State gave up 88 points to a team that has scored more than that just twice this year. In fact, the Panthers hit 80 or more points in just 5 games, and one of them was in overtime. Going one step further, Pitt finished the regular season 16th in the ACC in adjusted offensive efficiency and 17th in effective field goal percentage, yet they scored 1.34 points per possession on Wednesday on nearly 73% shooting from inside the arc and 44% beyond it. Not to mention, they sunk 20 free throws. There’s no excuse for that if you’re NC State, but it’s just a microcosm of how the Pack have played defensively over the last month – sitting outside the top 250 in adjusted efficiency.
The Wolfpack haven’t stepped up in class particularly well this year. They have no top-30 wins per KenPom’s rankings, as their best victory came against #31 North Carolina. Going a step further, of NC State’s 20 wins, only 4 of them came against top-50 teams. So why does this all matter? Because the Wolfpack drew the Virginia Cavaliers in the quarterfinals on Thursday, who are a top-20 team. This will be the 3rd time NC State sees Virginia this season, and both previous matchups were extremely forgettable for the Wolfpack – especially the second one in Charlottesville just a few weeks ago.
Virginia effectively removed Quadir Copeland from the equation in both meetings relative to his season averages, which is the best way to stymie this NC State offense. The Cavaliers have one of the best defenses in the country, sitting top-20 nationally and 2nd in the ACC in adjusted efficiency, and they have plenty of size in the back court to match Copeland’s elite size for his position. Given the fact that the Pack averaged fewer than 70 points per game against top-20 defenses this season – including the 2 games against Virginia – I’m not convinced they will have the firepower to cover this number, much less win the game.
College basketball best bet: Ohio State Buckeyes ML over Iowa Hawkeyes (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -125 or -2.
These teams met 2 weeks ago in Iowa City, and the Hawkeyes won convincingly thanks to a +14 scoring margin over the final 10 minutes in the first half. In that game, Christoph Tilly did not play, which left the Buckeyes extremely vulnerable around the cup – and that showed. Iowa shot 84% and scored 42 points at the rim, and the Hawkeye big man Alvaro Folgueiras had his best offensive performance of the season. This time around, Tilly will be back on the floor, and while he’s not a game-breaking shot-blocker, he is the best-rated defender on Ohio State’s roster per EvanMiya and certainly makes a difference on the back end of the Buckeye defense. In fact, over the last 5 games, Ohio State is almost 20 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with him off the floor, and on the offensive end, they are just over 16 points per 100 possessions better with their big man.
The Buckeyes were in a horrible spot when these teams first met, as they were coming off consecutive games against Michigan, USC, Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan State with Purdue to follow. Not to mention, it was their 2nd consecutive road game and 3rd game away from home in 4 outings. Given their rest and preparation ahead of this contest, I expect a better effort from the Buckeyes here, and for Bruce Thorton to be more aggressive after attempting just 8 total field goals and scoring only 10 points in Iowa – which was his 2nd-worst scoring output of the season. Oddly enough, the only worse effort was in a win at home against Penn State, the only other game in which Tilly didn’t play. At full strength, this Ohio State offense can be a force, even for a top-30 defense like Iowa. I’m all over the Buckeyes here.
College basketball best bet: Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas A&M Aggies Over 161.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 163.5.
We cashed a best bet on Wednesday with Oklahoma, and we’re going right back to the Sooners well for some more action – just in a different way. After getting past South Carolina, the Sooners earned a meeting with Texas A&M on Thursday, against whom they lost twice this year. In the first meeting neither team shot well from the perimeter relative to their respective ceilings from beyond the arc, yet the game still ended with 159 points. In the second meeting, there was an uptick in three-point percentage both ways, but two-point offense suffered, especially for Oklahoma – who connected on just 29% of those attempts. Only 146 points were scored in that game, which is explainable given the poor interior shooting.
Despite failing to surpass 160 in either game, oddsmakers currently list this total north of that number, and for good reason. Oklahoma has picked up the pace lately, which is just a cherry on top of the fact that the Sooners have run with uptempo, highly-efficient SEC offenses in the past. Games against Alabama, Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Florida and Kentucky all hit at least 160 points, showing that the offensive explosiveness is there. Meanwhile, 3 of Texas A&M’s last 4 games hit the 180s.
Pace and shooting are the names of the game here. Texas A&M is top-30 nationally in adjusted tempo and top-15 in average possession length, while sitting top-5 in the SEC in both metrics. The Aggies shoot threes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league, which typically leads to either 3 points for them or a fast-break opportunity the other way for their opponents. Oklahoma doesn’t have the best perimeter defense, so Ruben Dominguez, Pop Isaacs and Rylan Griffen should all get plenty of looks – and all 3 connect on at least 39% of their perimeter attempts this season. On the other end of the floor, Oklahoma loves to shoot threes too, and like the Aggies, the Sooners have a trio of shooters that can make opponents pay for leaving them open like Texas A&M tends to do, as the Aggies are 250th nationally and 14th in the SEC in three-point rate allowed. Elsewhere, neither team is great at preventing second-chance opportunities or defending without fouling, so look for additional scoring given those deficiencies. All things considered, this number is higher than the previous totals for a reason. Take the over.
Looking for more hoops tips and picks? Check out our NCAA predictions and college basketball best bets
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