Best College Basketball Bets Today: Expert NCAAB Picks for Tuesday, December 16

While campuses around the country are quiet for winter break, the college hoops season rolls along on Tuesday with a solid menu of games that includes a few headline matchups. Of note, the Louisville Cardinals will travel to Knoxville to play the Tennessee Volunteers in a revenge spot, while the next chapter in the Palmetto state rivalry is written between the South Carolina Gamecocks and the Clemson Tigers and Big East play begins between the Butler Bulldogs and UConn Huskies. 

To get you ready for Tuesday’s college hoops action, I will break down 3 of my favorite bets on the hardwood. Let’s get into the picks, but don’t forget about our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest games on Tuesday and beyond.

CBB Best Bet: South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 over Clemson Tigers (-110)

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +10.

In-state rivals South Carolina and Clemson both play at a below-average pace, so I naturally gravitate toward the underdog in this matchup – especially with the Gamecocks getting more than 10 points. The Gamecocks have yet to beat anyone of note and have not earned a win away from Colonial Life Arena yet this season, but they were very much competitive in their losses to Butler, Northwestern and Virginia Tech, losing those 3 games by just 12 combined points. Meanwhile, Clemson has a couple power-conference wins over West Virginia and Georgia on its resume, and the Tigers were able to remain competitive against the high-octane offense of Alabama. However, they showcased their floor in a second-half meltdown against BYU last week at Madison Square Garden, failing to maintain a 20-point lead while being outscored in the second half 45-21 in a 67-64 loss at the buzzer. The Tigers followed that up with a head-scratching performance at home against Mercer over the weekend, a game in which they trailed at halftime.

South Carolina hasn’t been the most efficient shooting team by any means, but the Gamecocks love to fire away from deep, which increases the variance of this game. Clemson is top-15 in opposing three-point percentage, but the Tigers may have been a bit fortunate to this point in that regard considering they are 266th in opposing three-point rate – giving up a perimeter shot on close to 43% of possessions. Compare that to South Carolina’s defense, which ranks 5th nationally in three-point percentage and 8th in three-point rate allowed, and you will see that the Gamecocks are a bit better at closing out on and contesting perimeter shots. If Clemson gives Meechie Johnson and Eli Ellis ample open perimeter shots, those attempts are eventually going to fall.

Unlike years past, the Gamecocks are very good from the free throw line this year, which only helps when catching double digits. Furthermore, South Carolina’s ability to limit second-chance opportunities at an above-average rate should help mitigate Clemson’s scoring via offensive rebounds. They may not pull off an upset win, but the Gamecocks should have enough here to keep this game within the number.

CBB Best Bet: Dayton Flyers -6.5 over Florida State Seminoles (-105)

Odds available at bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.

Florida State hits the road on Tuesday for its second non-conference road game in 3 outings and 4th game away from home in its last 5. The Seminoles are just 5-5 and have lost 4 straight by an average of more than 20 points per game, as they most recently surrendered 103 points to a UMass squad that had only scored 80+ points against teams ranked outside the top 240 prior to its matchup against FSU. Simply put, it’s hard to trust this bunch defensively, as the ‘Noles are 228th in effective field goal percentage allowed and don’t offer much resistance at the rim.

Dayton F/C Amael L’Etang should have a field day in the paint against Florida State. The 7-foot sophomore is efficient around the rim and is able to create his own offense via second-chance opportunities – which Florida State gives up in abundance. Outside of the paint, the Flyers are playing with more pace this year, which should directly benefit them in what expects to be an uptempo game against one of the fastest-paced teams in the country in Florida State – especially with heady and experienced guards like De’Shayne Montgomery and Javon Bennett leading the offense with over 31 points and nearly 6 assists per game combined. Unfortunately for the Seminoles, they aren’t very efficient defensively in transition, nor have they been effective offensively on the fast break of late – sitting in the 31st percentile in fast break points per game over their last 5. 

CBB Best Bet: North Carolina Tar Heels -14.5 over East Tennessee State Buccaneers (-115)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -16.

The ETSU Buccaneers will hit the road for their second consecutive road game to play the North Carolina Tar Heels in Chapel Hill on Tuesday, and I have a hard time seeing them keep this one close. ETSU is a very undersized bunch that struggles offensively from beyond the arc, which is not a recipe for success against the tallest team in the country in UNC. Thanks to their size, the Tar Heels defense is 3rd nationally in two-point percentage, and they excel on the boards on both ends. Moreover, they defend without fouling, as they rank 6th in opposing free throw rate.

Without easy points at the free throw line or reliable perimeter shooting, ETSU will likely need a poor offensive showing from UNC to have a chance at keeping this close, but that’s a tough ask. The Tar Heels have scored more than 1.1 points per possession in their last 2 home wins over Georgetown and USC Upstate, and this will be their third straight game played within the friendly confines of the Dean Dome – which should lead to another high-powered offensive performance. Moreover, ETSU is not efficient in its transition defense, which UNC will certainly exploit with its 85th-percentile transition offense. 

Propelled by the 6’10” freshman Caleb Wilson and 7-foot Henri Veesaar, look for North Carolina to have its way on both ends of the floor against an undersized ETSU team that has yet to play a power conference opponent. In fact, the best team ETSU has played is the aforementioned Dayton Flyers, who beat the Bucs 88-71 in Dayton despite shooting just 27% from deep. The Flyers converted 75% of their two-point attempts in that game, which the Tar Heels can replicate via the size of Wilson and Veesaar.