The college basketball season is chugging right along, and with about 5 weeks remaining until Selection Sunday, it’s starting to get real. Top teams are starting to separate themselves from the pack, the bubble is intensifying and the emotions are palpable through the screen when you watch the games. Luckily for us, the action continues on Tuesday night with a sizable 22-game slate — headlined by the day’s lone ranked matchup between Purdue and Nebraska in Lincoln. As many as 10 other ranked teams will be in action on Tuesday and 8 of them play on the road against unranked opponents. You know what that means — get your popcorn ready!
We all know why we’re here. Let’s get into my college basketball best bets on Tuesday’s card, while you can also find our NCAAB predictions for tips and analysis on all of the biggest college basketball games EVERY day from now until a champion is crowned in early April.
College basketball best bet: North Carolina Tar Heels ML over Miami Hurricanes (-118)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM at the time of publishing. ML playable to -125 or spread to -1.5.
While I realize this is a massive hangover spot for the Tar Heels, I’m not sold that Miami is the best team to buy against a red-hot Carolina team that is 33rd nationally in Haslametrics’ Momentum — ninth on the offensive end. This ‘Canes team has benefitted from the imbalanced ACC schedule, having played the easiest group of conference opponents to this point by a decent margin. In fact, they’ve only played one team with a winning record in conference play — Clemson — and they lost that game by 10. Furthermore, in only 3 games against top-75 offenses (KenPom), the Hurricanes are 0-3 SU and ATS while losing by an average of about 11 points per game. For reference, North Carolina has a top-20 offense.
For as easy as Miami’s road has been, you would think it would rate better defensively. At just sixth in the ACC in adjusted efficiency and 14th out of 18 teams in effective field-goal percentage allowed, I worry about this team’s defensive upside against the Heels — who have surpassed offensive expectations in 8 of their 9 games since the turn of the calendar year. Most of that success comes through the dominance of their front court with Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar, as well as the back-court reliability of Saturday’s hero Seth Trimble.
On the other end, Miami lacks much perimeter shooting prowess and because of that, relies heavily on scoring in the paint and around the rim. The numbers reflect that interior-scoring reliance, as the Hurricanes are in the 99th percentile in paint points per game. However, North Carolina is built to take away those paint opportunities, sitting top-25 in near-proximity percentage allowed while surrendering 5% fewer shots at the rim than the Division 1 average. Wilson and Veesaar are 2 of the 6 best defenders in the ACC, which means Miami leading scorer Malik Reneau is likely to meet ample resistance from elite shot-blockers all night long. If you are able to successfully limit him, you have a great chance to beat this Miami team — and that’s exactly what I expect on Tuesday in Coral Gables.
Read our full North Carolina vs Miami prediction
College basketball best bet: Gonzaga Bulldogs team total Over 88.5 vs Washington State Cougars (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 89.5.
The Zags should be in great position to fill up the scoreboard on Tuesday night at the Kennel against a Washington State defense that leaves quite a bit to be desired. The Cougars are currently 10th in the WCC in adjusted defensive efficiency, ninth in effective field-goal percentage allowed (including an opposing 37% 3-point percentage) and 11th in forced turnover rate. Moreover, this Wazzu defense is 228th in Haslametrics’ Momentum, and has been awful at the rim, in the paint and in transition against top-100 opponents — which is a nightmare against this Gonzaga offense.
Gonzaga is elite in transition, sitting in the 95th percentile in fast-break points per game — and it is even better in the paint. The Zags’ 46.4 paint points per game put them in the 100th percentile in that regard, spearheaded by the elite post-up play of Graham Ike. Through him, the Zags are in the 99th percentile in post-up offense, while he is also elite in his ability to roll off screens and finish either with an easy shot at the rim or a trip to the free-throw line. Those successes should continue on Tuesday against ND Okafor, who averages 5.5 fouls per 40 minutes and fouled out of the first meeting against Gonzaga. Okafor grades as the Cougars’ best defender, so Gonzaga’s offense could turn into an even bigger efficiency monster if he spends excess time on the bench due to foul trouble.
Wazzu plays at an above-average pace and has even kicked it up a notch over the last 5 games, which means Gonzaga should have plenty of possessions to surpass this number.
Best college basketball player prop: Robert Wright (BYU) Over 16.5 points vs Baylor (-110)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -17.5 at plus-money odds.
BYU heads to Waco desperate to put an end to its 4-game losing streak. I expect the Cougars to prevail over a struggling Bears squad, but I’m targeting Robert Wright to exceed his points total against his former team on Tuesday night. Averaging 17.3 points per game, Wright is third on the team in scoring — but that doesn’t mean he’s playing third fiddle necessarily. He has attempted 307 field goals, which is 41 fewer than AJ Dybantsa and 16 more than Richie Saunders — and he has attempted more threes than Dybantsa — knocking down 44% of those shots. Moreover, he is excellent off the dribble and in the mid-range, which are areas Baylor really struggles to defend. For reference, the Bears are in the first percentile against shots off the dribble (Hoop-Explorer), while they are dead last nationally in mid-range rate allowed. Look for a motivated effort from Wright in Waco.
Read our full BYU vs Baylor prediction
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