It was a massive weekend across the college basketball landscape, and Tuesday will provide another banger of a slate as we enter crunch time of the regular season. Teams across the country are jockeying for conference and NCAA Tournament seeding, while the battle on the bubble intensifies between teams like USC, TCU, Missouri, Auburn and Indiana – all of whom are in action on Tuesday.
Ahead of what should be a very entertaining 36-game slate, it’s time to break this cold streak and get to the window with some winners. Here are my favorite college basketball bets on Tuesday, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest games every day through the National Championship.
CBB best bet: Kentucky Wildcats -6.5 over South Carolina Gamecocks (-102)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -7.
With their recent 3-game losing streak, the Kentucky Wildcats are falling down the SEC standings and are now on the outside looking in when it comes to a top-4 seed in the conference tournament. When they hit the road for Columbia, South Carolina on Tuesday, it will be their 3rd road game in 10 days, but a matchup with the Gamecocks should be much more manageable for the Wildcats than recent games against Florida, Georgia and Auburn. This Kentucky offense, despite some lulls throughout the season, still sits top-50 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, and the Wildcats are in the 80th percentile in offensive rating over their last 5 games.
If Kentucky’s offense shows up at Colonial Life Arena, the Gamecocks figure to be overmatched. This team rates as the worst in the SEC from an efficiency standpoint, while they are also at the bottom of the conference in effective field goal percentage – connecting on fewer than 49% of two-point attempts and only 30.8% of perimeter attempts against SEC opponents. They don’t generate second-chance points either, as they are also the worst in the conference in that department. Over their last 5 games, they are in the 35th percentile in offensive rating, 17th percentile in effective field goal percentage and 5th percentile in offensive rebounding rate, all while sitting in the 10th percentile in defensive rating and 1st percentile in defensive rebounding rate.
While they had an excellent offensive showing against a poor Mississippi State squad off a couple big wins on Saturday, it doesn’t inspire much confidence ahead of this matchup with Kentucky, as this Gamecocks squad has not been able to string together multiple good offensive performances in a row in conference play. South Carolina is 2-15 in 17 games against top-100 offenses, and most of those losses came by more than 6 points. In fact, the Gamecocks were within 6 in just 5 of those losses overall – 3 in conference. Look for the Wildcats to dominate the paint, clean up the glass and flex on a South Carolina squad devoid of quality SEC offensive depth.
CBB best bet: USC Trojans +6.5 over UCLA Bruins (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to +5.
The USC Trojans were heating up toward the end of January and into early February, but the wheels came off in 3 straight losses to Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon. Now, they hit the road for a short, cross-town trip to Pauley Pavilion to play the UCLA Bruins on Tuesday, who are coming off their biggest win of the season. The Bruins trailed the Illinois Fighting Illini by 22 midway through the first half at home on Saturday before storming back and forcing overtime, just for Donovan Dent to come up in the clutch with his game-winning, full-court drive and finish as time expired in the extra period. The win marked their first over a KenPom Top 30 team this year, and was their 3rd game in a row against a top-10 opponent ahead of this rivalry showdown.
USC has excelled as an underdog, sitting at 6-3 ATS with 6 covers in their last 7 outings in this role, including a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 when catching points on the road. USC struggles with offensive consistency, but they crash the glass hard on that end of the floor, and they are aggressive with the ball – drawing fouls at the 3rd-highest rate in the country and highest rate in the Big Ten. Not to mention, the Trojans are as healthy as they have been in weeks with the return of veteran Chad Baker-Mazara.
Being strong on the offensive glass and earning ample trips to the free throw line are great attributes to have against this UCLA squad. The Bruins are 287th nationally in opposing offensive rebounding rate, as well as 17th out of 18 Big Ten teams. Moreover, they are 211th nationally and 12th in the conference in free throw rate allowed. Combine those shortcomings with their 5th-percentile defensive rating over their last 5 games and the letdown spot off the win over Illinois and the points with USC become very appealing. For what it’s worth, the Bruins are just 1-4 ATS in their 5 games as a home favorite since January 1st.
Check out our full USC vs UCLA prediction
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