Like every week, Tuesday provides an awesome slate of college hoops. There aren’t any ranked matchups on tap, but as many as 8 ranked teams will be in action and half of them will be on the road against unranked opponents. The hoops will start as early at 6:00 pm ET with a mid-major game between Wofford and VMI and will run until well past midnight, as there will be as many as 9 games that start at 10:00 pm ET or later for all you night owls out there.
With another full Tuesday college basketball slate ahead, it’s time to get into my best bets of the day. For more tips and hoops analysis, check out our NCAAB predictions daily as we creep closer and closer to the tournament time.
CBB best bet: Miami (OH) RedHawks Team Total Over 84.5 vs Buffalo Bulls (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 85.5.
When these teams met in Oxford just a few weeks ago, we were treated to a barrage of points and cashed a no-doubt best bet on the over because of it. This time around, I’m going back to the well in a way, but I’m just targeting this Miami offense – as it’s a great matchup for this unit against Buffalo’s leaky defense.
As the MAC’s most efficient and fastest-paced offense, Miami wants to run up and down the floor and find high-percentage looks. The RedHawks find most of their success through transition opportunities and rim attacks, from which they will finish efficiently at the rim or kick out to one of their multiple 40% three-point shooters. They also excel in their perimeter cuts, post-ups and pick-and-pop sets, albeit less frequently than the aforementioned transition opportunities and rim attacks.
Buffalo defends none of those sets well. In fact, Buffalo has one of the worst defenses in the country, sitting at 304th nationally in adjusted efficiency and 283rd in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Bulls are 2nd-worst in the MAC in those metrics, as well. They really struggle to defend the perimeter (296th in three-point rate allowed), and they don’t deter many shots at the rim (330th in near-proximity percentage, 274th in block rate), which is disastrous against a Miami offense that leads the MAC in three-point rate and ranks 28th nationally in near-proximity percentage.
The Bulls have played with more pace in conference play than they did against non-conference opponents, so I don’t see them effectively slowing this game down. Moreover, Miami’s offense has travelled well on the road, as the RedHawks actually have a better effective field goal percentage playing away from home than they do in their own building. As such, they average close to 88 points per road game. For what it’s worth, the RedHawks have surpassed this number in 16 of their 22 games overall, in 9 of their 10 conference games and in their last 4 true road games.
CBB best bet: Texas Longhorns Team Total Over 81.5 vs South Carolina Gamecocks (-114)
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 82.5.
After taking the Gamecocks to the NCAA Tournament in his 2nd season in Columbia, Lamont Paris’ seat is heating up to an uncomfortable temperature. It makes sense, as the Gamecocks are just 4-23 SU in conference play since that postseason berth, including their recent stretch of 3 consecutive losses in which the Gamecocks surrendered at least 92 points per game. The most recent outing against LSU went to overtime, which skews the allowed offensive output a bit, but the Tigers were without leading scorer Dedan Thomas in that game and still managed 1.23 points per possession on 58% from the field and 41% from range.
This Gamecocks squad is just not at an SEC level defensively. They are dead last in the conference in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage allowed, assist rate allowed and block rate. Furthermore, South Carolina is dead last in KenPom’s average 2-point attempt distance allowed, meaning they yield high-quality looks to their SEC opponents more than anyone else in the conference. They also give up a ton of mid-range looks, which is not ideal against the Longhorns – who are 10th nationally in mid-range percentage per Haslametrics.
Pacing is the biggest concern for this bet, but Texas’ efficiency should be able to help the Longhorns surpass this team total. They are 8th nationally and 2nd in the SEC in adjusted offensive efficiency, as well as 2nd in the conference in effective field goal percentage. This team has been hot too, sitting 25th in Haslametics’ offensive momentum metric, while South Carolina is 327th in defensive momentum and 304th in Haslametrics’ away from home metric, as well. Also worth mentioning, the Gamecocks can be exposed on the offensive glass, especially of late with Christ Essandoko, Nordin Kapic and Jordan Butler relatively non-existent in the lineup. Moreover, Texas gets to the line almost as much as any team in the country. The Longhorns should be able to score in every way imaginable at home on Tuesday.
CBB best bet: Fordham Rams +8.5 over VCU Rams (-108)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +7.
It’s the battle of the Rams in the Atlantic 10 on Tuesday, and as ugly as it seems, I’m taking the home underdog in this spot. VCU has been cruising, boasting a 7-2 conference record and 5 straight wins thanks to one of the most efficient offenses in the conference. However, Fordham can make this game pretty ugly, as the Rams play at a very slow pace – ranking 330rd nationally in adjusted tempo and 356th in possession length. They excel in the mid-range, which is an area VCU’s defense has been known to struggle, but overall, Fordham isn’t very efficient on the offensive end. However, their slow pace of play should play a role in limiting VCU’s possessions.
Where Fordham makes its hay is on the defensive end and on the glass. The Rams are a solid 113th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 81st in effective field goal percentage allowed, holding all but 1 of their A-10 opponents below 80 points. They limit opportunities at the rim thanks to their size in the front court, and they have been elite from an efficiency perspective when defending in transition against top-150 teams per Hoop-Explorer.
Speaking of their elite size, Fordham is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, sitting top-30 nationally on both ends. The Rams are the best offensive rebounding team in the A-10, which should help them find some easy buckets against a VCU defense that is prone to giving up a healthy amount of shots at the rim. Fordham’s elite rebounding prowess should also limit VCU’s second-chance opportunities, further stifling VCU’s scoring. Lastly, if you’re part of the “spot” crowd, you could argue this is a lookahead spot for VCU, who welcomes Dayton to town this weekend.
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