Like most weeks, Tuesday’s college basketball card is loaded with must-see games. While there is only 1 ranked matchup – Vanderbilt vs Arkansas – as many as 11 other ranked teams are in action, with 7 of them playing on the road against unranked opponents. Can Michigan get back to dominating opponents at home against Indiana? Will Iowa State snap their 2-game losing streak? Can Michigan State and Purdue survive their dreaded West Coast trips in Big Ten play? We will find out on Tuesday night, as the college basketball postseason draws closer and closer. Ahead of Tuesday’s hoops action, I’ve locked in my CBB best bets of the day. If you’re looking for more picks and analysis, check out our NCAAB predictions for all the biggest games on Tuesday.
CBB best bet: South Carolina Gamecocks ML over Oklahoma Sooners (+118)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +100.
Oklahoma and South Carolina represent 2 of the bottom 3 teams in the SEC right now, so this game is no headliner. Efficient offense and defense has been hard to come by for both teams, as the Sooners and the Gamecocks are mutually in the bottom 4 of the conference in adjusted efficiency on both ends of the floor. However, I think there’s a case to be made for the home dog here.
As I alluded to, South Carolina doesn’t do much well. However, the Gamecocks are actually very efficient in their rim attacks via an aggressive group of guards in Meechie Johnson and Kobe Knox, as well as their big men Mike Sharavjamts and Elijah Strong. They play off that aggression with ample kick-outs to shooters and a solid pick-and-pop operation that could send Oklahoma scrambling to recover defensively. The Gamecocks certainly aren’t consistent from the three-point line, but they jack up perimeter shots at a top-40 rate, and they are much better at shooting within the friendly confines of Colonial Life Arena rather than somewhere on the road. They also knock down their mid-range shots at an efficiency level that grades out in the 97th percentile per Hoop-Explorer.
Oklahoma has had trouble defensively against rim-attacking offenses, sitting in just the 34th percentile against those actions. The Sooners have also struggled against those same attack-and-kick and pick-and-pop sets that the Gamecocks are most comfortable in. If Johnson or Knox decide to push the pace at all in transition, they should find some easy buckets against the Sooners – as Oklahoma is in just the 27th percentile when defending in transition. Look for the Gamecocks to find enough success offensively to win this game against an Oklahoma team that surrenders almost 81 points per game on the road and is just 2-6 ATS in games away from home.
Find out our experts’ college basketball picks for tonight’s big games on ESPN, FS1, Peacock and ESPN2!
CBB best bet: Texas Tech Red Raiders ML over Baylor Bears (-125)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -135 or -2.5 on the spread.
The Baylor Bears are really struggling in conference play, sitting at just 1-4 SU against their Big 12 opponents. I don’t expect it to get any easier for them on Tuesday night, when they welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to Waco. The Bears want to do most of their damage offensively in transition, via on and off-ball action to the rim, and through their second-chance opportunities created by what has been a very good offensive rebounding rate to this point. Unfortunately for them, Texas Tech can limit all of those areas in similar ways that Houston, Iowa State and Kansas did.
According to Hoop-Explorer, the Red Raiders are in the 98th percentile in efficiency against transition offenses, and they also sit in the 95th percentile against perimeter cuts, which is part of the reason why Texas Tech is 2nd in the Big 12 in effective field goal percentage allowed. The Red Raiders also surrender the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the league, so where is Baylor going to find offense? This Baylor squad is dead last in the conference in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, turnover rate and free throw percentage. It might be another long night for the Bears.
Read our full Texas Tech vs Baylor prediction
CBB best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks ML over Vanderbilt Commodores (-120)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -135 or -2.5 on the spread.
Once undefeated Vanderbilt has fallen back to Earth a bit after losing their first two games of the season last week against Texas and Florida. There was a recurring theme in those losses, as the Commodores were crushed on the glass and didn’t defend well. In fact, Vandy lost the battle of the boards by a combined count of 82-50 against the Longhorns and the Gators, and both teams scored more than 1.2 points per possession in their wins over the Commodores. That’s worrisome for Vanderbilt ahead of a trip to Bud Walton Arena, where the Arkansas Razorbacks have been a machine.
The Hogs average more than 97 points per home game, which ranks 4th nationally, and they carry an effective field goal percentage of 58.7% in those games – buoyed by 40.5% shooting from beyond the arc. Vandy will give up plenty of perimeter looks, as they sit 14th out of 16 SEC teams in opposing three-point rate allowed, but that’s not the only area in which the ‘Dores have shown vulnerability in league play. This team is also 2nd-to-last in opposing two-point percentage against SEC opponents, and Arkansas is fairly efficient in the paint and around the rim – sitting in the 93rd percentile in paint points per game according to CBB Analytics.
The cherry on top is the fact that Vanderbilt is dead-last in offensive rebounding rate and 9th in the league in offensive rebounding rate allowed, meaning Arkansas should be able to maintain its 92nd-percentile second-chance points per game mark while limiting the Commodores to minimal second-chance attempts.
For what it’s worth, Arkansas has been a covering machine at home of late, sitting at 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at Bud Walton Arena. Under Coach Calipari, the Hogs are 6-1 ATS as a home favorite off a loss. Look for the Hogs to notch the victory and the cover.
Read our full Vanderbilt vs Arkansas prediction
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