Tuesdays during the college basketball season typically provide plenty of entertainment and intrigue, and this week should be no different. Headlining the card is a top-5 matchup in the Big Ten between Nebraska and Michigan, and as many as 9 other ranked teams will be in action – 4 of them on the road against unranked opponents.
Following a 6-0 result in last week’s best best columns, I’m looking to extend the run on Tuesday with 3 more best bets. Let’s break down the upcoming hoops slate, while you can always find our NCAAB predictions on the biggest college basketball games every day.
CBB Best Bet: Nebraska Cornhuskers +10.5 over Michigan Wolverines (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +9.
An undefeated Nebraska team catching double digits against a Michigan squad that has failed to cover in 6 straight – all as double-digit favorites. Is the market still too slow to adjust to the Cornhuskers’ perfection and the Wolverines’ recent descent back down to Earth, or is this one of those so-called “trap lines?” I’m going to go with the former, so I’ll happily scoop the points with Nebraska here.
On paper, Nebraska is built to aggravate Michigan’s offense. The Cornhuskers have been stout defensively, boasting the 11th-most efficient unit in the country according to KenPom – 2nd-best in the Big Ten. They are disciplined on that end of the floor too, ranking 4th nationally in free throw rate allowed, which is huge against a Michigan team that gets to the line at the highest rate in conference play. Moreover, the ‘Huskers completely shut down transition opportunities – sitting in just the 2nd percentile in transition frequency allowed against top-50 opponents – while performing admirably against opposing big men, whether it be in post-ups, ball screens or inside-out sets. Obviously, those attributes will be crucial against an uptempo Michigan squad with a highly-skilled front court.
On the other end of the floor, Nebraska should find enough success to keep this game within the number. The Cornhuskers are elite off the dribble, which is an area Michigan can struggle defensively, and they have an excellent perimeter game that should be able to find open looks against a Wolverines defense that is 284th in opposing three-point rate. For reference, Nebraska is 11th nationally in three-point rate, and in conference play, the Huskers take over 52% of their shots from beyond the arc – connecting on a conference-high 38.5% of them. Oddly enough, they are more consistent from deep on the road than at home. Given Michigan’s inability to win by margin of late, there’s enough here to like about Nebraska at this number.
CBB Best Bet: Purdue Boilermakers -4 over Indiana Hoosiers (-110)
Odds available at Bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.
The Boilermakers have lost 2 in a row ahead of this in-state rivalry showdown at Assembly Hall, which only adds fuel to the fire when they meet the Hoosiers on Tuesday. Despite the recent losses, Purdue is still the 2nd-most efficient offense in the conference according to KenPom, boasting a balanced attack from inside and outside the arc, in addition to the lowest turnover rate in the league. They are elite in their ability to create offense through their big men, whether it be through screens, post-ups, inside-outs, or high-lows, and it all starts with their maestro in Braden Smith – who has the 5th-best assist rate in the nation. Smith also knocks down over 40% of his perimeter attempts, while Fletcher Loyer, CJ Cox and Omer Mayer actively contribute in that department, as well.
Indiana has struggled mightily against top-tier competition this season, sporting just 1 top-50 win and 0 top-30 wins in 6 attempts. Their average margin of defeat in those 6 games is just over 13 points. I don’t see that turning around on Tuesday, as they are unlikely to have an answer for Oscar Cluff and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Against top-50 opponents, the Hoosiers are in the 18th percentile or worse against the 4 aforementioned sets in which Purdue’s big men excel. Moreover, they are undisciplined defensively, fouling at one of the highest rates in the conference, which just gives Purdue even more opportunities for easy points.
CBB Best Bet: Miami (OH) RedHawks -8.5 over UMass Minutemen (-112)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -10.
Miami has maintained its undefeated season with a 20-0 mark, but it hasn’t come easy for the ranked RedHawks over the last 10 days. Both of their recent outings went to overtime, as they trailed by multiple possessions late against both Buffalo and Kent State. In fact, they needed buzzer-beating heroics from Eian Elmer at the end of regulation and Peter Suder in overtime to seal the victory over the Bulls. However, Miami has had a full week off to rest and recharge, and they will benefit from playing this game at home against a UMass team that was just on the road at Buffalo on Friday.
UMass has won 2 straight and 4 of their last 5, but I have a hard time seeing that success extend past Tuesday. Like Miami, UMass plays uptempo, which may not be the best strategy against this RedHawks squad. They’ve proven they can outscore everyone in their path, so limiting possessions by slowing the game down to a crawl and defending at a high rate seems like the best path forward against this team, but that’s not UMass’ style. Not only do they play fast, but the Minutemen struggle to defend, ranking 10th out of 13 MAC teams in effective field goal percentage allowed, while sending conference opponents to the free-throw line at the highest rate in the league. Considering Miami is 1st in the MAC in free throw rate, connecting on just over 80% of its attempts against conference opponents, that doesn’t seem like the best defensive strategy.
It only gets worse for UMass when you look at the on-court matchup. Miami loves to score in transition and attack the rim, but they can also kick out to as many as 4 prolific, high-volume three-point shooters that connect on at least 38% of attempts. Furthermore, the RedHawks are highly-efficient in their pick-and-pop sets and through various perimeter-cutting motions. Unfortunately for UMass, the Minutemen do not defend a single one of those areas at even an average level. They are at their worst defensively in transition and against opposing rim dives – 5th and 16th percentile, respectively – which are 2 of the most frequent and efficient areas of attack for Miami offensively. The RedHawks should cruise here.
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