Tuesday’s college basketball slate is a good one. As many as 10 ranked teams are in play, headlined by a pair of ranked matchups when Duke travels to Louisville and Houston hosts Texas Tech. Other notable power-conference matchups include Florida hosting a ranked Georgia team off an OT win against Auburn, Oklahoma State hosting a ranked UCF team off a win over Kansas, and that very Jayhawk squad hosting TCU in the friendly confines of “The Phog.” Meanwhile, there are some bangers at the mid-major level between a couple of 11-win teams when Bowling Green heads to Kent State and George Washington travels to Dayton.
Looking for some action on Tuesday’s basketball card? I can help you with that. Here are 2 of my college basketball best bets of the day, but don’t forget to also check out our NCAAB predictions for tips and analysis on the biggest games each and every day.
CBB best bet: Cincinnati Bearcats +2.5 over West Virginia Mountaineers (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to pk.
KenPom’s metrics suggest West Virginia is top 100 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, but I’m not quite buying those numbers given the Mountaineers’ body of work. They have played a strength of schedule that ranks 346th, and their only power conference win was over a 7-8 Pitt squad. Despite the relatively easy strength of schedule, WVU is just 112th in effective field goal percentage and 106th in turnover rate, which causes concern in regards to its offensive upside against a defense as good as Cincinnati’s. The Bearcats are top-25 in opposing scoring, allowing fewer than 66 points per game, and they sit 6th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Like WVU, the Bearcats don’t have the strongest resume, but they held high-flying Georgia to a season-low scoring output, while Louisville and Houston were held right near their season lows against this Cincinnati defense. Simply put, I don’t know how WVU scores enough to win, much less cover – especially if Brenen Lorient misses another game
This isn’t the best spot for Cincinnati, playing on the road off a home loss to Houston, but you could argue that’s negated by the spot WVU faces. The Mountaineers are off a 21-point road loss to Iowa State, and they will play Kansas then Houston after this matchup with Cincinnati. In a game that’s projected to have a below-average amount of possessions between 2 solid defensive teams, give me the points with the Bearcats.
Read our full Cincinnati vs West Virginia prediction
CBB best bet: Duke Blue Devils ML over Louisville Cardinals (-115)
Odds available at BetMGM at the time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Recency bias would say Duke is on a tough stretch. The Blue Devils blew a 17-point second-half lead to Texas Tech in what amounted to an 82-81 loss going into the holiday break, and they didn’t exactly set the world on fire coming out of the break against Georgia Tech and Florida State, either. Now, they’re on the second leg of a 2-game road stretch, travelling to Louisville to play the 11-3 Cardinals. In most instances, I would back the home team here. However, I’m not particularly fond of Louisville’s situation ahead of this game. While they have an extra day of rest, the Cardinals just returned from their 2-game trip to the west coast, which ended with a 80-76 loss to Stanford – who scored only 40 total points against Notre Dame prior to the matchup with Louisville. To make matters worse, freshman phenom Mikel Brown Jr. will miss another game due to a lower back injury.
Louisville is still a great team without Brown in the lineup, but there is definitely a dip in offensive efficiency without him. The ‘Cards can get away with that against teams like Montana and even a team like Cal, but it’s very unsettling against what should be a laser-focused Duke squad that excels defensively and ranks top-20 in both adjusted efficiency (KenPom) and opposing effective field goal percentage. The Blue Devils also have elite size and are able to control the boards because of that, which negates what has been a strength for Louisville to this point. Duke also negates transition offense very well, which will come in handy against what is a fast-paced, though inefficient Louisville transition offense. Louisville may have to live and die by the three in this game, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing with Ryan Conwell and Isaac McKneely on the floor, but I question Louisville’s legs and closing ability after spending half a week in California and being without its stud point guard.
Read our full Duke vs Louisville prediction
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