With the regular season officially in the rearview mirror, the madness is officially here. That is, if you consider conference tournaments to be part of the madness – which you should. Tuesday isn’t quite as packed with as much action as we will see on Wednesday and Thursday given the SEC, Big East, Mountain West and others don’t start until Wednesday. However, the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 will all hit the floor on Tuesday, with action starting as early as 12:30 PM ET. Meanwhile, we will be treated to 5 championship games in the CAA, Horizon, NEC, MAAC and WCC.
Ahead of Tuesday’s conference tournament hoops slate, I’m looking to improve on my 3-0 mark on Saturday with 2 more college basketball best bets. Let’s get into the breakdowns, while you can find our NCAAB predictions for more tips and picks every day now through March Madness.
Stop busting brackets and sign up for the Pickswise March Madness Premium Picks now! Our expert is up +30.7 units over the last 3 NCAA Tournaments and picked Florida at +4000 last year. Get futures picks and daily best bets throughout the entire tournament, all for just $50. Click here to join and get 20% off before Selection Sunday!
College basketball best bet: Baylor Bears -3.5 over Arizona State Sun Devils (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.
Baylor has been far from a comfortable bet for much of the season, particularly in conference play, but this number feels a couple points too short. When these teams met in Waco just a few weeks ago, Baylor closed around a -8 favorite and ultimately won by just 5, but is the shift in venue to a neutral site in Kansas City worth two possessions worth of points? I don’t see it, especially with the way Baylor has been playing offensively of late.
The Bears have been on fire over their last 5 games, sitting in the 96th percentile in offensive rating and the 91st percentile in effective field goal percentage over that span. They have been excellent in the paint in those 5 games, where they averaged almost 39 points per game (92nd percentile), and they’ve dominated the offensive glass over that span – pulling in almost 37% of their misses (90th percentile). Furthermore, they’re putting up more than 15 points per game off turnovers, which will come into play against an Arizona State team that has given the ball away on 17% of possessions over the last 5 games (10th percentile). To top it all off, Baylor has found a groove from the perimeter, knocking down about 37.5% of their threes over the last two weeks or so.
The Sun Devils have been bad all year at preventing second-chance opportunities, and they don’t create many themselves, so the Bears should have the edge in the shot volume battle – which puts a lot of pressure on Arizona State’s first-shot offense. Unfortunately for the Devils, offense in conference play hasn’t been a strength. They’re 13th in adjusted efficiency, 14th in effective field goal percentage and 12th in turnover rate against Big 12 opponents, and they’re in the 23rd percentile in offensive rating over their last 5. Moreover, their results away from home have been less than ideal in conference play.
Get our Baylor vs Arizona State prediction and 5-star best bet
College basketball best bet: Oregon Ducks -3.5 over Maryland Terrapins (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.
Obviously, neither of these had a great season or else they wouldn’t be playing what is effectively a play-in round for the Big Ten Tournament. Oregon finished the season 5-15 in conference, while Maryland finished 4-16. Both the Ducks and the Terrapins were hampered with injuries to key players, but the good news – at least for the Ducks – is that Nate Bittle came back and has played for the last month. Bittle provides the Ducks with reliable interior scoring, shot-blocking and strong rebounding with his 7-foot, 250-pound frame, for which the Terps don’t really have an answer. Through Bittle and his front-court mate Kwame Evans, the Ducks have an excellent 1-2 punch when it comes to post-up and high-low action, areas in which Maryland has been bad defensively in conference play – sitting in the 30th percentile or worse in both areas.
The Ducks’ body of work hasn’t been pretty, but through Bittle, Evans and Takai Simpkins, I believe they have a much higher ceiling than the Terps in a tournament setting. Quite frankly, Maryland hasn’t shown much of a ceiling at all this season outside of a home win over Iowa, and they’ve been especially poor of late. Over their last 5 games, they are in the 18th percentile or worse in offensive rating, effective field goal percentage and defensive rating, and they haven’t been able to find easy looks in any capacity in that time given their rank in the 2nd percentile or worse in free throw rate, points in the paint and points off turnovers. Not to mention, Maryland’s roster has essentially zero Big Ten Tournament experience – coach included.
Click here to add us to your Google preferred sources and never miss a story
