After the first full week of hoops action, we’re off to the races in the 2025-2026 college basketball season. Like the loaded weekend slate, Tuesday offers plenty of intriguing matchups on the hardwood – headlined by Wake Forest vs Michigan, Florida State vs Florida, Kentucky vs Louisville, Texas Tech vs Illinois, and Creighton vs Gonzaga. Those are just the big games that involve ranked teams; there are still plenty of other exciting matchups at all levels of Division 1 hoops like Dayton vs. Cincinnati, Memphis vs. Ole Miss, and Ohio vs Saint Mary’s – just to name a few.
Fresh off a 3-0 sweep on Saturday’s card, I’m anxious to keep the momentum going on Tuesday. Here are my favorite picks on this loaded midweek slate, but make sure you also check out our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest matchups on Tuesday and beyond.
CBB Best Bet: Dayton Flyers vs Cincinnati Bearcats Under 146.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to 144.5
This is the 3rd consecutive year these regional non-conference opponents will play one another, but unlike the last 2 matchups, this game will be on Cincinnati’s campus at the Fifth Third Arena rather than downtown on the river at the Heritage Bank Center. Last year, this game was an absolute slog, as the Bearcats won 66-59. Only 13 combined 3s were made, and overall pace was far below average.
I’m expecting much of the same this year. Despite playing 2 inferior opponents, the Flyers are 349th in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. This is no fluke, as Anthony Grant’s teams consistently play at a bottom-50 pace. Unlike Dayton, Cincinnati seems to be playing faster this year, which makes sense given the veteran makeup of the Bearcat back court with seniors Kerr Kriisa (yes, he’s still in college) and Day Day Thomas. However, on paper, this team is dearth of any sort of proven perimeter shooting outside of the 2 aforementioned guards – and it’s been a while since Kriisa has been a consistent shooting threat.
In fact, the same applies for Dayton. Javon Bennett is the only Flyer shooter that has a proven track record of perimeter shot-making, which means Dayton may have a tough time scoring against a Cincinnati defense that looks legit through the first week of the season – allowing fewer than 0.9 points per possession in its first 2 games. I just don’t see where the offense comes from, especially if Dayton emphasizes its deliberate pace of play in an attempt to limit Cincinnati’s possessions.
CBB Best Bet: Florida State Seminoles vs Florida Gators Over 178.5 (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to 180.5
This has all the makings of a track meet. Under new head coach Luke Loucks, the Seminoles are running with pace and spreading the floor more than they did under Leonard Hamilton. In fact, through 2 games, the ‘Noles are top-20 in 3-point rate – connecting on just north of 40% of those attempts. This is an ideal offensive set up when going up against this version of the Florida Gators – a roster loaded with frontcourt talent. With their extreme size in the paint via Alex Condon and company, the Gators are likely going to get whatever they want at the rim against most opponents, including this Florida State team.
There will be plenty of possessions to push this game over the total so long as the Seminoles and Gators are hitting their shots with any sort of consistency. For reference, both Florida State and Florida have hunted early shots thus far, ranking top-35 in average possession length. That’s not going to change here. In fact, the Seminoles may even emphasize their transition offense in an attempt to beat Florida’s rim defenders down the floor.
CBB Best Bet: Illinois Fighting Illini -4 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.
Christian Anderson and JT Toppin returning to Lubbock after an Elite 8 run is massive for the Texas Tech program, as they provide a foundation and continuity for the Red Raiders at 2 key positions. However, I’m not sure I trust the rest of the team just yet. While Donovan Atwell, Tyeree Bryan and even LeJuan Watts can shoot the cover off the ball, there’s not a ton of depth behind the starting lineup, and there’s even less interior size on this roster – which I believe to be a massive issue against Illinois.
The Fighting Illini have one of the biggest rosters in the country from a height perspective, and because of that, I expect them to control the glass in this matchup. Through 1 week of games, Illinois is 3rd in offensive rebounding rate and 10th in offensive rebounding rate allowed. Those numbers may not hold once the Illini play some power conference opponents, but I expect this bunch to be in the top 25 all year on both ends of the floor thanks to Zvonimir Ivisic, David Mirkovic, and Ben Humrichous. Look for the Illini to leverage their home crowd and interior size to notch a win and cover on Tuesday night in Champaign.
Read our full Texas Tech vs Illinois prediction
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