Wednesday’s college basketball slate is a good one, as 2 ranked matchups in Arkansas vs Alabama and BYU vs Arizona take center stage, while 7 other ranked teams are in action – 6 of them on the road against unranked opponents. At the mid-major level, ETSU looks to keep a stronghold on the Southern Conference when they travel to Furman to play the Paladins for the second time after the first meeting went to overtime. Meanwhile, Dayton travels to George Mason to play the Patriots in a battle of 2 teams slipping down the Atlantic 10 standings behind Saint Louis and VCU. Ahead of a jam-packed Wednesday of hoops, it’s time to get into my college basketball best bets of the day. Let’s jump into the analysis before you check out our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest games today and beyond.
CBB best bet: American Eagles -2.5 over Bucknell Bison (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -3.
There are a ton of great matchups tonight worth watching; this is not one of them. However, the American Eagles are in a great spot to exact some revenge over Bucknell after the Bison stole the first meeting just 2 weeks ago 60-59 thanks to a 37-foot, 3-point buzzer-beater from a 26% 3-point shooter in Achile Spadone. The Eagles were favored at home in that game, but they had a horrendous shooting performance, connecting on fewer than 37% of 2-point attempts and just 33% of perimeter attempts. Despite those poor shooting numbers, they won the ancillary battles by forcing 14 turnovers and grabbing 16 offensive rebounds, which led to them winning the shot-volume battle, as well. That’s a good sign ahead of the rematch tonight.
The Eagles aren’t world-beaters offensively, but they are better than they showed against Bucknell 2 weeks ago. In fact, they are second in the Patriot League in 2-point percentage, and while they aren’t exactly efficient from the perimeter, they are top-40 nationally in 3-point rate and can get hot in a moment’s notice thanks to Geoff Sprouse (39.6%) and Wyatt Nausadis (37.8%). Even big man Julen Iturbe (33.7%) can step outside and hit a few shots from beyond the arc.
The Bison will go as far as Amon Dorries can take them. It was enough in the first meeting, but it’s going to be difficult to pull off a second time – especially if American regresses to the mean offensively. Bucknell has gone through the Patriot League gauntlet since that win over American, playing 3 of the 4 top teams in the conference and losing by double digits in all of them. The Bison are second worst in the conference in offensive and defensive efficiency, and turnovers plague them, which is less than ideal against an American defense that is top-60 nationally and first in conference in turnover rate. Not to mention, the Eagles are second in the conference in 2-point defense. Expect a better showing from American on both ends of the floor here.
College basketball best bet: Arkansas Razorbacks +4.5 over Alabama Crimson Tide (-112)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to +3.
There’s no denying that Alabama is hot right now, as it has put up 89 points or more in 4 straight games since that embarrassing 100-77 loss to Florida, while making at least 12 threes in each of those games. However, it’s worth mentioning that 3 of those wins came against teams that are in the bottom 6 of the conference in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
This Arkansas defense is a different beast, as the Razorbacks are very strong on the perimeter. They are third in the SEC in 3-point rate allowed, and their conference opponents have knocked down just 31.3% of those attempts against them. They’ve been especially good in this department of late, sitting in the 87th percentile or better nationally in 3-point rate allowed, opposing 3-point percentage and 3-point assist rate over their last 5 games. Like Alabama, this recent run hasn’t been against the strongest level of competition from a shooting perspective — but the Hogs are built defensively to limit those perimeter attempts with their rangy wing defenders.
Last year’s teams were completely different, but we’ve seen a John Calipari-led Arkansas defense shut down Nate Oats’ perimeter offense once already when the Hogs held the Tide to 5-of-19 from the perimeter in Fayetteville. That was tied for the fewest number of threes Alabama made all season, while being tied for the second-fewest 3-point attempts on the year. The venues are different this time around, but the systems are the same, and the Hogs have been strong against the number in conference road games thus far. Meanwhile, Alabama has beaten only 3 of its 12 top-50 defensive opponents by more than 4 points and is just 2-4 ATS at home since January 1.
Read our full Arkansas vs Alabama prediction
College basketball best bet: St. John’s Red Storm team total Over 83.5 vs Marquette Golden Eagles (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 85.
This feels like a generous — almost fishy — number after the Johnnies put up 92 on the Golden Eagles in the first meeting, but I’m taking the plunge because I love the matchup for their offense. St. John’s loves to run with pace, sitting top-55 in adjusted tempo and top-30 in average possession length. In conference play, they are third in both of those metrics. That pace provides a high floor when it comes to their number of possessions and shot attempts in a game, but the floor moves even higher when they play other uptempo teams like Marquette, which ranks top-15 nationally and first in the Big East in average possession length. All this to say that St. John’s should feel comfortable offensively from a tempo perspective on Wednesday night, even if they are playing on the road.
For my money, St. John’s has a decent advantage in the front court against Marquette. The Golden Eagles yield shots at the rim almost 5% more than the average Division 1 team, and they are dreadful on the defensive glass. In fact, they are 321st nationally and dead last in the conference in offensive rebounding rate allowed, which is a nightmare against a St. John’s team that is elite in that department. For reference, the Johnnies are 19th nationally and third in the Big East in offensive rebounding rate, and they love to operate around the rim and in the paint through Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins. Marquette doesn’t have many answers defensively in the front court for those 2.
It seems we’re getting some value on this line from the oddsmakers due to the cold shooting performances of St. John’s in its last 2 games, but I expect there to be enough shot volume through pace and second-chance opportunities for the Johnnies to surpass this number and flirt with 90+ points again.
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