Following a solid day of hoops on Tuesday, college basketball fans will be treated to yet another jam-packed slate on Wednesday. The 54-game menu starts with an 11:00 am ET tip-off between Bucknell and Army in the day’s standalone matinee contest and runs all the way through a handful of 11:00pm ET matchups out on the West Coast. After a 1-1 result on Tuesday, I’m looking to improve on that mark on Wednesday. Here are my college basketball best bets of the day, and don’t forget about our NCAAB predictions for tips and picks on all the biggest games every day now through the NCAA Tournament.
Headlining the action is a ranked Big East battle between #15 St. John’s and #6 UConn and an SEC matchup between #7 Florida and Texas. Out west, Utah State and San Diego State will meet in a game that will go a long way in determining the Mountain West Conference seeding, while Saint Mary’s seeks revenge on Santa Clara and Gonzaga looks for payback against Portland.
College basketball best bet: Nebraska Omaha Mavericks ML over South Dakota Coyotes (-115)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -125.
These teams met once about a month ago in Omaha, which resulted in a 68-64 win for South Dakota. This time around, the Mavericks are laying a point on the road in South Dakota, as oddsmakers expect them to bounce back and exact some revenge on the Coyotes on Wednesday. I tend to agree, especially because I feel the shooting performance the Mavericks put forth in the first meeting was an outlier. They shot just 1-of-19 from three and connected on just 59% of their free throws, which is surprising considering they make more than 37% of perimeter shots and more than 74% of free throws in conference play. It’s not as if South Dakota did anything special in that game. The Coyotes shot right around their season averages in that contest, while pulling in only 3 offensive rebounds and turning the ball over 17 times.
The Mavericks come into this contest in great offensive form, sitting top-20 in Haslametrics Offensive Momentum while boasting a 93rd-percentile mark in offensive rating and 98th-percentile grade in effective field goal percentage over their last 5 outings (CBB Analytics). The same can’t be said for South Dakota, who is 340th in Offensive Momentum while ranking in the 13th and 20th percentiles in those metrics, respectively, over their last 5 games. Despite being on the road, we should see a much better offensive showing from Omaha this time around against a South Dakota squad that is just 1-3 in its last 4 home games.
College basketball best bet: Florida Gators -6.5 over Texas Longhorns (-105)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -8.
This Texas squad is strong on the offensive end, as well as on that glass. The Longhorns are 6th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and top-15 in offensive rebounding rate, and they also get to the free throw line at the 2nd-highest rate in the country. Against SEC opponents, they are top-2 in efficiency and effective field goal percentage, while they lead the conference in three-point percentage and are top-4 in offensive rebounding rate and free throw rate. This all sounds great on the surface, but Florida’s defense is equipped to limit all of Texas’ strengths. The Gators are top-5 nationally and 1st in the SEC in adjusted defensive efficiency, while sitting 11th and 1st, respectively, in effective field goal percentage allowed. They have elite size that should completely neutralize the Longhorns on the glass, ranking top-3 nationally in offensive rebounding rate allowed. Not to mention, the Gators are very disciplined on the defensive end, sending SEC opponents to the line at the 2nd-lowest rate.
Texas will attack through a variety of ways. Jordan Pope, Tramon Mark and Dailyn Swain will hunt shots in transition, off the dribble and in the mid-range, while the Horns will also operate through Swain and Matas Vokietaitas in ball screens and post-ups. The issue is, Florida is close to elite in all of those areas except defending off the dribble, but Texas will need more than that to stick around at home – especially considering their defensive shortcomings around the rim and lack of discipline while guarding. Texas is 301st nationally in free throw rate allowed, which should supply Florida with ample points at the free throw line.
All things considered, I struggle to see Texas’ path to success on either end. The Longhorns are just 2-6 SU against top-50 defenses per KenPom, and when they face top-20 defenses, they are 0-4 SU with an average margin of defeat in the double digits. On the other side, Florida is in the midst of a 6-0 ATS run as a road favorite.
Check out our full Florida vs Texas prediction
College basketball best bet: Gonzaga Bulldogs Team Total Over 88.5 vs Portland Pilots (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to 89.5.
I’ve had this game circled ever since the Pilots upset Gonzaga in Portland 3 weeks ago, a game in which the Pilots shot almost 66% from inside the arc and 44% beyond it. Although I expect regression from Portland here, the spread is too rich for me, so I’m going to target the Zags’ team total instead. In that first meeting, Gonzaga shot less than 46% from two-point range, just 33% from three-point range and 69% from the free throw line, yet they still scored 80 points thanks to 13 offensive rebounds – 6 from Graham Ike – and 17 forced turnovers. The shooting woes in that contest make sense considering the Zags were off a tough stretch of playing close games against San Francisco and Saint Mary’s, plus that trip to Portland was their first road game in over 2 weeks.
I’m expecting Gonzaga to be fired up for this rematch, not only because of the embarrassing loss at the beginning of the month, but because this is their last home game of the season. Gonzaga’s offense hasn’t been the most consistent from an efficiency standpoint of late, but this is a perfect opponent to flex on, not only because of the revenge angle, but because Portland is simply not good on the road. In fact, the Pilots are outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency and 300th in opposing effective field goal percentage when playing away from home. Furthermore, they are 275th in offensive rebounding rate allowed and 337th in turnover rate in those games, while allowing opponents to hit almost 40% of their perimeter shots. Gonzaga should have plenty of opportunities for points in a variety of ways on Wednesday.
Putting up 90+ points in a revenge spot is nothing new for Gonzaga. Since losing in the title game to Baylor in 2021, Mark Few’s squads had lost just 4 games to conference opponents not named Saint Mary’s before dropping the game at Portland earlier this year. Each of those 4 losses had a same-season rematch later in the year in which the Zags scored at least 94 points. Look for that trend to continue on Wednesday night.
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