It’s full steam ahead on the college basketball season, as Wednesday provides yet another awesome slate of hoops after a fantastic night on the hardwood on Tuesday. There’s just 1 ranked-on-ranked matchup on the docket, but it’s a doozy in Alabama vs Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, as many as 8 other ranked teams are in play, half of them on the road against unranked opponents. At the mid-major level, 13-win Belmont travels to 12-win Northern Iowa for a Missouri Valley Conference clash, while VCU hosts Saint Louis and St. Bonaventure hosts Richmond in A-10 action and Troy travels to Arkansas State in the Sun Belt.
With another entertaining college hoops slate on deck, I’ve got you covered with a few of my favorite bets on Wednesday’s slate following a 2-0 showing in yesterday’s article and a 2-1 result on Saturday. Let’s dive into the picks, and don’t forget about the rest of our NCAAB predictions for analysis on all of the biggest games daily across the college basketball landscape.
CBB Best Bet: Iowa State Cyclones -4.5 over Baylor Bears (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to -5.5.
This line opened around -6 in favor of Iowa State and was bet down, but I disagree with the early money on Baylor. The Cyclones are hyper aggressive defensively, as they clamp down on ball screens with 2 defenders much of the time while denying the post. Opponents have to be able to space the floor to find success against this ISU defense, but that’s not really what Baylor does offensively. The Bears typically produce points at or around the rim with their guards attacking via dribble drives, and that’s unlikely to be available against this Iowa State defense given how strong its on-ball pressure and transition denial has been. Baylor’s elite offensive rebounding rate also figures to be negated by Iowa State here, as the Cyclones are top-50 in offensive rebounding rate allowed this season and in the 98th percentile in defensive rebounding rate over their last 5 games (CBB Analytics).
On the other end of the floor, Iowa State has been able to push the pace and score very efficiently in transition (97th percentile per Hoop-Explorer), which has been an area of concern for Baylor defensively. The Bears allow a ton of transition opportunities, and their opponents tend to score efficiently in that area. Baylor can also be exposed on the defensive glass, which will be tough to overcome against an Iowa State squad that is in the 98th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and 85th percentile in second-chance points per game. This is a team that grabbed 11 offensive rebounds on the road against an elite rebounding team in Purdue, and that is a trait that travels – as is Iowa State’s defense. I like Iowa State to win by a few possessions against a Baylor squad that has struggled against the best defenses on its schedule.
CBB Best Bet: Loyola Chicago Ramblers ML over Davidson Wildcats (+105)
Odds courtesy of bet365 at the time of publishing. Playable to -110 or -1 spread.
I don’t love this edition of the Ramblers, but they are starting to come around of late. Per Haslametrics, Loyola Chicago has outperformed offensive expectations in 5 of its last 7 games, and in its last 3 games on the defensive end. Speaking of their last 3 games, the Ramblers went into the holiday break with a win over Santa Clara in a pseudo-road game in California, and they came out of the holiday break victorious with a true road win at Rhode Island. Last time out, they fell just short at home against Dayton 70-68, though they did blow a double-digit lead. Luckily for them, tonight’s opponent is not in the same stratosphere as Dayton.
This is a tough spot for Davidson. The Wildcats came out of their break with a 6-point loss in 2OT against Duquesne, and they were able to follow that loss up with a win on the road at St. Joseph’s over the weekend. However, this will be the second straight road game for them, which I find to be concerning given how infrequently they have played away from the Carolinas. In fact, this is the first time Davidson will play in a true road back-to-back this season, and this hasn’t exactly been the most profitable spot for Matt McKillop’s squad – as the Wildcats haven’t won back-to-back road games at any point of his tenure since he took over for his dad in the 2022-2023 season. They’re also just 1-4 SU against Loyola since then. It’s an ugly one, but considering the spot and Loyola’s improved play of late, it’s Ramblers or pass in this A-10 matchup.
CBB Best Bet: Arizona Wildcats -17 over Kansas State Wildcats (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -19.
I struggle to see a path to success here for Kansas State against what has been an absolutely dominant Arizona squad. KSU comes into this matchup off a 10-point loss at home against BYU despite the Cougars not having their best stuff offensively, which continued the trend of the Wildcats struggling against top competition. Now insert Arziona, who is by far the best opponent KSU will have played this year.
The Tucson Wildcats are elite on both ends of the floor, sitting in the 96th percentile in offensive rating and the 98th percentile in defensive rating. When they have the ball, they operate through their steady stable of big men, who can beat their defenders in a number of ways, whether it be through rim dives off ball screens, post-ups, or inside-out play. These are all areas Kansas State struggles to defend with an undersized front court. More than 43% of Arizona’s shots come within 4.5 feet of the rim (CBB Analytics), which is almost 12% above the Division 1 average. Meanwhile, Kansas State counters with a front court that is outside the top 185 in near-proximity rate allowed (Haslametrics). Arizona also dominates on the offensive glass, residing in the 99th percentile in offensive rebounding rate and averaging almost 14 points per game off second-chance opportunities. KSU offers little resistance here as well, ranking 353rd in potential points allowed off second-chance attempts.
On the other end of the floor, Arizona negates everything Kansas State does well, from off-ball cuts to transition opportunities. The Wildcats from Manhattan operate through P.J. Haggerty when they have the ball, but he will be met by Jaden Bradley, who is top-25 nationally in Evan Miya’s defensive rating. Furthermore, Kansas State has found success in creating points via second-chance opportunities, but Arizona is one of the best in the country at limiting opposing offensive rebounds. The purple Wildcats are going to need a stellar performance from beyond the perimeter to keep this game close, which will be difficult against the rangy Arizona defense.
Like Arizona, Kansas State plays with above-average pace. In fact, KSU plays even faster than Arizona, so possessions will not be at a premium in this one. That’s worrisome if you’re a Kansas State fan, as Arizona routinely puts up 95+ points. If you can’t slow Arizona down, you’re going to be in for a long night – which is exactly what I expect here for Kansas State.
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