The college basketball postseason is off and running, and the action will intensify on Wednesday with the start of the SEC, Big East, American, Mountain West, Big West and WAC tournaments. Elsewhere, the ACC, Big 12 and Big Ten Tournaments enter the second round, while champions will be crowned and tickets will be punched to the NCAA Tournament in the Big Sky, Patriot League and Southland title games.
On the heels of a 3-0 Saturday, Tuesday’s luck was miserable, but the beauty of tournament time is that you have a vast menu of options to right the ship the very next day – and that’s exactly what I plan on doing today. Here are my best college basketball bets for Wednesday’s slate, and don’t forget our NCAAB predictions for more tips and picks every day through March Madness.
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College basketball best bet: USC Trojans vs Washington Huskies 1H Under 72.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Fanatics Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 70.5.
USC and Washington haven’t played particularly well down the stretch, as the Trojans are 2-7 SU since February 1 – including 7 straight losses – while the Huskies are 3-6 SU in that span. Given USC’s recent downtrend, neither team is really part of the bubble conversation at the moment, and both teams have availability concerns ahead of this matchup – whether it be injuries or players no longer being part of the team. These are ingredients for a recipe of ugly basketball, and I haven’t even touched on the travel piece or play style yet.
This game will be played in Chicago on an 11:30 AM PT body clock, which isn’t all that bad considering some weekend games during the regular season can start as early as 9:00 AM PT. However, neither team has been that great offensively outside of the Pacific Time Zone, especially early in games. In fact, the Trojans average less than 33 first-half points when playing in the Central and Eastern Time Zones, as do the Huskies. In an unfamiliar neutral-site venue, those scoring deficiencies can be magnified. Further, neither offense is efficient when compared to their conference counterparts, as Washington is 11th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 12th in effective field goal percentage in Big Ten play, while USC is 17th and 18th, respectively.
USC’s pace of play is a concern when backing the under, but the Trojans have slowed things down slightly over the last 3 weeks, and Washington is outside the top 160 in adjusted tempo in that time. In fact, the Trojans average 2 fewer possessions per game over their last 5. Spotty defense is another concern here, especially with what could be tired legs in an early game after cross-country travel, but these defenses have played more zone lately given their lack of player availability – which actually should work in our favor here.
Washington and USC are very isolation-heavy offenses, which is tough to play against zone, and neither team is any good from the perimeter. For reference, the Huskies and the Trojans have made fewer than 31% of their threes this season, and that number has dropped to below 28.5% for both teams over the last 3 weeks. Usually, perimeter shooting is a zone breaker. All things considered, expect this one to be ugly, especially early.
Read our full USC vs Washington prediction for today
College basketball best bet: UCF Knights +2.5 over Cincinnati Bearcats (-110)
Odds widely available at the time of publishing. Playable to +2.
After some rotation adjustments last month, Cincinnati is one of the hottest teams in the country right now thanks to an elite defense, and the Bearcats have been further buoyed by a pretty vast three-point discrepancy in that time. Since February 11, the Bearcats are knocking down 41.1% of their threes (17th) while holding opponents to just 30%. Is that sustainable? Maybe; Cincinnati has a trio of very reliable shooters, but among them, Jizzle James is shooting way over his career average this season – so regression is a real possibility.
These teams split their season series, with UCF winning by 1 in Orlando and Cincinnati absolutely dominating the Knights at home a month later – which was the beginning of this run. The Bearcats hit 61% of their 18 threes in that dominant 92-72 win, while UCF was just 6-of-23, so the 20-point margin of victory makes sense. However, the Knights aren’t as bad as they showed in that contest, which was off back-to-back games against Texas Tech and Houston I might add.
Sure, UCF’s 3-game losing streak to end the season isn’t the best look either, but I’m not going to dock them for a 1-point loss to Baylor and a 7-point overtime loss to Oklahoma State on the heels of a 2-game road trip out west – during which they absolutely dominated BYU. The WVU loss to end the season was ugly, but the Knights were running on fumes at that point.
The perception is that teams playing off a bye in a tournament setting have an advantage due to rest, but that isn’t always true. Sometimes, the team that played the day prior comes in with confidence after already playing and winning on that floor. That said, UCF needed this bye to recalibrate after the way their season ended, while Cincinnati’s offense was inconsistent throughout the win over Utah yesterday.
With a refocused approach, I think the Knights are equipped to beat Cincinnati despite how well the Bearcats have played. UCF has a ton of size to throw at Cincinnati’s front court, they take care of the ball and they can match a hot shooting performance from the Bearcats with a couple of shooters of their own in Riley Kugel and Jordan Burks. I’ll take the cushion with the spread, as this could very well be a close game throughout, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see UCF win.
Read our full Cincinnati vs UCF prediction
College basketball best bet: Oklahoma Sooners -7.5 over South Carolina Gamecocks (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook the time of publishing. Playable to -8.5.
In full disclosure, I am a South Carolina alum, so I feel I have a solid pulse on this Gamecock program. I cashed on the Gamecocks in each of their 4 conference wins, and 2 of those bets I shared with you. We were on South Carolina at Ole Miss on Saturday, as the Gamecocks came through in a big way for us – winning outright while catching the same amount of points they are today. We were also on the Gamecocks back on January 20, when they beat Oklahoma in Columbia 85-76. On Wednesday, they will face the Sooners again, so we’re going back to the well with Cocky, right? Wrong.
Oklahoma ended the regular season in great form, winning 4 straight and 6 of their last 8 following a miserable 1-9 start to conference play – which included that loss in South Carolina. Since February 1st, the Sooners are 8th nationally in BartTorvik’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are 2nd in the country in three-point percentage in that span, knocking down 44% of their perimeter attempts. Sure, they might be shooting slightly over their heads right now, but I’d argue this current form is more in line with their baseline than their ugly 18% showing (5/27) in the first meeting with the Gamecocks. In fact, that was Oklahoma’s 2nd-worst three-point shooting performance of the entire season, while it was South Carolina’s 3rd-best performance in conference play (9/20) from an efficiency standpoint.
On Wednesday, I’m expecting both teams’ shooting to regress back to the mean. Nijel Pack, Xzayvier Brown and Jadon Jones have connected on at least 37% of their three-point attempts in their career, while the Sooners lead the SEC in three-point percentage at 38.7%. On the other end, South Carolina has made just 30% of their perimeter attempts this season. Myles Stute and Elijah Strong were the catalysts for South Carolina’s win over Oklahoma back in January, connecting on 6-of-9 combined threes, but how likely is that to happen again? I’d argue not very, as neither Stute nor Strong shoot better than 32% from distance this year. Moreover, the duo has combined for just 8 threes in 9 games since the beginning of February.
Thanks to their recent form, the Sooners have played their way onto the bubble, and because of that, they have much more to play for on Wednesday than South Carolina. That’s not always a bet-on formula, but given the revenge angle, Oklahoma’s current form and South Carolina’s road woes, it all adds up to laying the points with the Sooners.
For what it’s worth, South Carolina is just 2-10 SU in road and neutral games this year, and those 10 losses came by an average of more than 13 points per game. When filtering down to conference games away from home, their only 2 wins came against LSU and Ole Miss – both of whom finished below the Gamecocks in the conference standings. In their 7 conference road losses, the Gamecocks were beaten by close to 17 points per game. Simply put, the Sooners have more firepower than the Gamecocks, which should be on display in a revenge spot with NCAA Tournament hopes still within reach.
Now find the rest of our college basketball best bets for Wednesday’s LOADED slate of hoops
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