Like Monday and Tuesday, college hoops fans will rejoice when they look at Wednesday’s slate of games. A Players Era Champion will be crowned (and paid) today, while other MTEs like the Maui Invitational continue with play. In addition, the Battle 4 Atlantis tips off today with 4 interesting non-conference bouts consisting of multiple future tournament teams.
After a 2-1 result yesterday, I’m back with another trio of picks for Wednesday’s hoops slate. As it stands, I am 7-4-1 on these CBB best bet articles, and hoping to push that winning percentage up with today’s action. Let’s get into the picks, and don’t forget about our NCAAB predictions for all of the biggest college hoops games every day.
CBB Best Bet: Vanderbilt Commodores -18 over Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-105)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to -19.5.
One of the first games of the day will be played in Nassau, Bahamas in the opening round of the Battle 4 Atlantis between Western Kentucky and Vanderbilt. It’s funny these teams will meet in the Bahamas considering they are about a 2-hour drive from one another, but that’s the fun of MTEs during Feast Week.
The Commodores should be able to name their score here. They love to play fast, and they have been highly efficient doing so. In fact, the ‘Dores average the 4rd-most shots per game thus far, and they sit in the 99th percentile in effective field goal percentage and the 100th percentile in offensive rating per CBB Analytics. Their perimeter shooting has been prolific, ranking top-35 in both three-point attempts and three-point percentage, they create second-chance opportunities at an elite rate, they are highly-efficient at scoring in the paint, and they knock down more than 75% of their free throws – making the Commodores one of the most well-rounded offenses in the early portion of this season. Fortunately for Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky struggles to defend the perimeter, has a weak interior defense, and can be undisciplined defensively at times in terms of fouling.
The ‘Toppers are a solid defensive-rebounding team by the numbers, but it’s hard to trust any of the numbers on their resume considering the level of competition they have played to this point. Their strength of schedule ranks 347th per KenPom, and they have yet to play a team that sits in the top 220 per KenPom’s rankings. Moreover, they haven’t left the state of Kentucky for a game yet. WKU plays with a ton of pace like Vanderbilt, so the Commodores should be plenty comfortable with the game flow here. Without much of a perimeter threat, I don’t see how WKU hangs around, specifically because this team loves to get to the rim for a vast majority of its scoring, where Vanderbilt simply doesn’t allow much action. In fact, the Commodores yield a shot within 4.5 feet of the rim just 14% of the time – 17% less than the national average.
CBB Best Bet: VCU Rams vs. South Florida Bulls Over 172 (-110)
Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 174.
Let’s stay in the Bahamas for my second best bet of the Wednesday slate. With head coach Ryan Odom off to Virginia, VCU has really picked up the pace under new coach Phil Martelli Jr. The Rams are top-40 in both average possession length and adjusted tempo (KenPom), and they aren’t even the fastest-paced team in this matchup considering the South Florida Bulls are 7th in average possession length and 16th in adjusted tempo. Both of these teams love to take perimeter shots, mutually ranking in the top 25 in three-point attempts per game and top 40 in three-point rate, and they both are above-average to excellent in the offensive rebounding department – as USF sits 9th in offensive rebounding rate while VCU is 88th.
Three-point shots obviously are good for an over – especially when you mix them in with a fast pace of play – and that’s exactly what we’ll have here on Wednesday afternoon. In an unfamiliar gym, the shots may not fall as consistently as we want them too early on in the game, but even missed perimeter attempts can be beneficial to over bettors – as they jump start the fast break going the other way. That should hold true in this matchup considering both USF and VCU are in the 96th percentile in fast break points per game, averaging more than 19 per game each. The cherry on top is that both teams get to the free throw line at a top-40 rate. All things considered, this should be a high-scoring affair.
CBB Best Bet: NC State Wolfpack vs. Texas Longhorns Under 158.5 (-115)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing. Playable to 156.5.
NC State has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, but I’m expecting this to be a lower-scoring game than oddsmakers suggest. The Wolfpack love to run in transition, but Texas has been excellent at limiting transition opportunities and scoring. In fact, according to Hoop-Explorer, the Longhorns are in the 97th percentile in opposing fast break efficiency while sitting in the 8th percentile in transition opportunities allowed. Moreover, the Longhorns are solid at taking away perimeter shots, which is where NC State loves to fire up shots in the half court.
On the other side of the floor, Texas wants to get to the rim. This bunch doesn’t shoot a ton of perimeter shots, and the ‘Horns aren’t very good at the free throw line – which should suppress scoring. If they can’t rely on perimeter shots or consistency at the free throw line, then I have a hard time seeing how they score consistently here, as NC State is one of the best teams in the country at limiting shots within 4.5 feet of the rim.
When you mix in these defensive advantages with the fact that both of these teams will be playing their third game in 3 days, you can see the vision for a low-scoring affair.
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