Best College Basketball Bets Today: Expert NCAAB picks for Tuesday, November 25

Feast Week rolls right along on Tuesday with yet another loaded college hoops slate consisting of multiple matchups between some of the sport’s elite programs. From Florida to Hawaii and what feels like everywhere in between, MTEs are at the forefront of college basketball all week, and I wouldn’t have it any other way.

Without wasting too much time, let’s get right into my favorite bets on Tuesday’s massive hoops card, and don’t forget to find our NCAAB predictions for the biggest games today, this week, and the rest of the season.

CBB Best Bet: Michigan State Spartans -20.5 over East Carolina Pirates (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing

The Beach Division of the Fort Myers Tip-Off hits the court on Tuesday, and the first game of the 2-game slate features a Big Ten vs AAC matchup between the Michigan State Spartans and the East Carolina Pirates. This is not a marquee matchup by any means, but it stuck out to me given how poor ECU has played this season. Simply put, the Pirates look to be out-matched against the Spartans — at least on paper. ECU has played a strength of schedule that ranks 240th in defense (KenPom), yet the Pirates are just 275th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 322nd in effective field-goal percentage – which includes just 22.4% from 3-point range. The Pirates also struggle at the free-throw line and in creating second chances, which is not going to help them at all against the best defense they will have seen to this point by far. 

Sparty is a top-15 team when it comes to defensive efficiency, and that rating is no mirage considering MSU has played Arkansas and Kentucky already. On their home floor, the Spartans held Arkansas to 0.97 points per possession, dominated the rebounding battle and forced 14 turnovers. At Madison Square Garden against Kentucky, Michigan State held the Wildcats to 0.93 points per possession, again dominated the rebounding battle and forced 13 turnovers. Offensively, the Spartans should be able to name their score against an ECU defense that is 331st in effective field-goal percentage and yielded 85 or more points to teams like Georgia Southern, Richmond and UNC Wilmington. In fact, ECU barely beat a Division 2 team at home a couple weeks ago — a 71-70 win against Elizabeth City State. I don’t see any path to success for the Pirates, so I’m going to lay the big number with Sparty.

Read our Michigan State vs. East Carolina prediction

CBB Best Bet: St. John’s Red Storm vs. Baylor Bears Over 161.5 (-110)

Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at the time of publishing

These teams played in what was an electric MTE matchup last year in the Baha Mar Championship, resulting in a 99-98 Baylor win in double overtime. While this year’s matchup might not be quite as thrilling, I expect it to be points – so I’m betting high on this total. St John’s and Baylor have 2 of the most prolific offenses in the country to this point, as the Johnnies average 95.2 points per game (8th) while the Bears average 87.3 (52nd). Baylor’s scoring average is particularly interesting coming into this game, because the Bears don’t play at the same pace as St. John’s. In fact, they average about 2 more seconds per possession and about 3.5 possessions fewer than the Johnnies per game. Moreover, the Bears haven’t played anyone that plays anywhere near the pace of St. John’s — which sits top 20 in both adjusted tempo and average possession length. 

There may not be a ton of 3s attempted in this game, but both teams have bona fide shooters to knock down open perimeter shots. Baylor should be able to find success in the mid-range against St. John’s defense, and the Johnnies — namely Zuby Ejiofor, Dillion Mitchell and Bryce Hopkins — should be able to get to the rim consistently against a Baylor defense that lacks a true rim-denying big man. Both of St. John’s stepup games against Alabama and Iowa State went over this number, and given how efficient Baylor has been behind Cameron Carr, I envision plenty of scoring. 

Check out our full St. John’s vs. Baylor prediction

CBB Best Bet: Houston Cougars -3.5 over Tennessee Volunteers (-110)

Odds widely available at the time of publishing

Tennessee looked great yesterday, but blindly betting the Vols here based off that result would be falling victim to recent bias. The Vols greatly benefitted from playing arguably the worst team in the Players Era — a team that lost to Central Connecticut at home by 13 points last Friday prior to leaving for Las Vegas. Coming into this contest, the Vols have had a much easier early-season schedule than Houston, as Rutgers was the first power-conference opponent Tennessee has played. Per KenPom, Tennessee has played the 334th-rated strength of schedule, and while Houston’s isn’t significantly better at 201st, the Cougars have at least been tested by power-conference opponents in Auburn and Syracuse — both wins.

The Volunteers seem to have a turnover issue, which is part of the reason I’m targeting Houston today. Despite their easy schedule to this point, the Vols rank 273rd in turnovers per game (14.3) — and most of those turnovers are live turnovers. That’s simply not going to cut it against Houston, which is 14th in steal percentage and 33rd in forced turnover rate. 

Tennessee’s soft perimeter defense could also be an issue. The Vols have surrendered a 3-point shot on almost 47% of opposing attempts, which ranks 333rd nationally, and they have been fortunate in that opponents have only made about 26% of those shots. Despite not being the most efficient team from distance, Houston can make Tennessee pay from range — specifically senior guard Milos Uzan. Uzan was struggling from beyond the 3-point line up until yesterday, when he knocked down 4 of his 8 perimeter shots. Freshman guard Kingston Flemings has connected on 50% of his perimeter attempts, senior Emanuel Sharp hovers between 36% and 40% and even freshman big man Chris Cenac is in on the fun — connecting on 7 of his 14 perimeter shots. His range should help pull Tennessee’s Felix Okpara out of the paint and open up the driving lanes for Houston’s guards. I see more paths to success for Houston offensively than I do for Tennessee in this matchup, so give me the Cougars in what should be yet another thrilling Players Era contest.

Here’s our Houston vs. Tennessee prediction