Javan Shouey
The first half of the MLB season has been filled with incredible storylines and memorable moments, but the All-Star break is a chance for bettors to zoom out and look ahead towards the rest of the season. This article will cover our three favorite futures bets as we anticipate what we will see unfold in the 2nd half of the year. Let’s dive in!
Arizona Diamondbacks win total under 80.5 (-125)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to under 79.5 at +105 odds or better.
It has been a disappointing season for the Arizona Diamondbacks as the team sits at 47-50 through their first 97 games played. With just 65 games remaining on their schedule and several productive players on their roster drawing trade interest, we could see Arizona be a seller at the trade deadline. Reports have surfaced that Arizona is open for business on Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor already. With the July 31 trade deadline approaching rapidly, we could soon see the construction of this roster altered.
Arizona entered the season with high expectations due to their returning talent and the signing of Corbin Burnes in free agency. Injuries to Burnes and several other contributors have played a role in the team’s poor start, and I do not expect the team to bounce back very much post all-star break. Not only could they be sellers at the trade deadline, but they still have 25 divisional games remaining on their schedule. The NL West is a gauntlet, and the end of their season is an extremely tough looking schedule. Their final 7 series of the year will be played against the Red Sox, Giants, Twins, Giants again, Phillies, Dodgers, and the Padres. All of those teams are within playoff reach as the 2nd half begins and I find it hard for the Diamondbacks to finish with a .500 record or better. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs also has them finishing with fewer than 81 wins this season.
Minnesota Twins to finish in 2nd place in American League Central (+140)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +125 odds.
The American League Central is a rather lopsided division as it features the 59-38 Detroit Tigers and the 32-65 Chicago White Sox. While the division features both sides of the spectrum, it also features 3 teams stuck in the middle with the Minnesota Twins, Cleveland Guardians, and Kansas City Royals separated each by just a half-game. All 3 of those teams sit 4 or 4.5 games behind the final wild card spot in the American League and I honestly do not believe any of them make the postseason in 2025. That is a bet you can make on DraftKings as well, priced at +105 odds at the time of publishing.
While none of those 3 middling Central teams are my favorite, I do see a slight edge in picking the 2nd place finalist. All 3 teams have among the 10 easiest remaining schedules according to Tankathon.com., but I am particularly fond of the Twins lineup of games. They still have 3 games against the Rockies, 3 games against the Nationals, 3 games against the Athletics, 7 games against the White Sox, and 13 games combined against the Royals and Guardians. That is a nice mix of weaker opponents and direct competition, and I favor the Twins roster among the 3 down the stretch. Health is always a concern for the Twins, but I prefer their organizational depth opposed to the other 2 rosters. FanGraphs projects Minnesota for 81 wins while they have Kansas City and Cleveland tabbed for 79 each.
Framber Valdez (HOU) to lead MLB in wins recorded (+600)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to +525 odds.
Recording a single win takes into account several factors, and this is why pitching award voters have been focusing on ERA and other run-prevention indicators in recent seasons. Paul Skenes is a perfect example with a 4-8 record through 20 starts despite a 2.01 ERA. This bet is not on an award, and we don’t need to encourage any votes. We are simply betting on the pitcher that will lead MLB in wins recorded by the end of the season and given current positioning I favor Framber Valdez for this honor.
Valdez has been strong this season for the AL West leading Houston Astros, posting a 2.75 ERA through his first 19 starts. Those 19 outings have combined for 121 innings of work for an average of over 19 outs recorded per start. He is able to work deep into games given his elite 61.6% ground ball rate and overall efficiency. Valdez is known for pitching deep into games and I expect that to continue in the 2nd half of the season as the Astros look to cement their positioning atop the division. According to Tankathon.com the Astros have the league’s 2nd easiest remaining schedule with their opponents holding a combined .482-win percentage. Valdez will exit the all-star break with 10 wins recording, tying him for the 2nd most in MLB this season. Max Fried and Freddy Peralta are tied for the league lead with 11 at this point but it is still anyone’s game and at +600 odds I am in on Framber. With proper health the left-hander should be among the league’s inning leaders, and I see solid value on this bet to lead MLB in wins.
