Javan Shouey
Wednesday’s MLB slate has numerous intriguing matchups that could result in entertaining games to watch, but from a betting perspective there is one game that stands out to me among the rest. I am looking to back Nick Lodolo and his current form against the lackluster Guardians lineup that has been struggling against southpaw pitching. Let’s dive in!
Nick Lodolo (CIN) over 16.5 outs recorded (+100)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds. Risking 1u.
Nick Lodolo is having a nice year in his age-27 season, posting a 3.21 ERA through his first 75.2 innings pitched this season. The southpaw hurler has been a consistent piece of this Reds starting rotation, and he has done well providing deep starts for his club. Lodolo is also showing improved efficiency this season and that is where I am targeting him in his matchup against the Cleveland Guardians. The Reds’ starter is averaging a career-best 15.6 pitches per inning this season thanks to increases in his first-pitch strike rate and overall zone rate, and a decrease in his walk rate. Lodolo is issuing free passes at just a 4.5% rate, a mark ranking 93rd percentile in MLB this season. His strikeout rate has also dipped which is leading to fewer long counts.
The 6’6″ starter has eclipsed this 16.5 outs marker in 9 of his 13 starts so far this season including 6 full innings in each of his last 2 starts against the Cubs and Diamondbacks. Cleveland is nowhere near those groups offensively against southpaw pitching, and the Guardians have struggled with lefties all season long. In their 696-plate appearance sample the team ranks 29th in wOBA with the 9th highest strikeout rate and a wRC+ of 69. They struggle to generate hard contact, and it tends to be in the ground when they do connect, ranking 11th worst in ground ball rate against lefties. Andrew Abbott just shut out this Guardians lineup across a complete game yesterday, and while I don’t expect a repeat effort from Lodolo today, I do expect 5.2 innings or more from the Reds starter.
Read our full Reds vs Guardians prediction
